brand logo

A whiff of fascism

24 Jul 2022

By Kusum Wijetilleke Ranil Wickremesinghe is the new Executive President of Sri Lanka, winning the position by way of 134 votes to hold the office in its most powerful form, under the 20th Amendment.  Scholars will surely analyse the sequence of events that led to the presidential coronation of an MP who lost his own seat in a district he had held for decades, only entering Parliament through the National List. An MP who ascended to the prime minister’s office under cloak and dagger, with the validation of Sri Lanka’s most unpopular President of all time.  The Aragalaya has been clear that Ranil Wickremesinghe’s ascent to the presidency with the explicit support of the Sri Lanka Podujana Perumana (SLPP) will lead to a further escalation of the ‘struggle’. How much public support does the Aragalaya still enjoy from a weary and worn-out public, newly suspicious of sporadic violence spawning from the Aragalaya?  It’s an extremely interesting dynamic because, for all effects and purposes, the new President perpetuates the Rajapaksa grip on Parliament. The Aragalaya meanwhile, cannot legitimise themselves by their own numbers – it requires the solidarity of the general public, the common man.  Unlike presidents and prime ministers, the Aragalaya must prove its legitimacy every time it takes to the street and its next outing will be taken as indicative of the mood of the nation, accurate or not.  Blow to freedom of expression In anticipation of another round of protests, Ranil in his capacity as Acting President had already ratcheted up security around the city, with the road to Parliament completely enclosed on all sides.  In a fresh blow to the freedom of expression, there is a five-metre boundary restriction for protesters around the statue of S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike at ‘GotaGoGama’. Emergency laws have also been enacted, all the while reprisals continue as the State apparatus targets protesters and activists. These are distinctly authoritarian tendencies being exhibited by the President and present evidence that the Aragalaya is seen as a genuine threat to the established power structure. As Acting President, Ranil Wickremesinghe labelled the violence of the Aragalaya as fascism, stating: “We must end this fascist threat to democracy.” State of ‘anarchy’ The media, for its part, has regularly referred to the protests as creating a state of anarchy. It is revealing that fascism and anarchism are evoked to criticise the Aragalaya, though the movements are actually on opposite sides of the left/right political spectrum. Anarchy is being used to signify a lack of ‘order’ which is not strictly the case with anarchism. In the study of international relations, the word ‘anarchy’ is also used to describe the conditions under which nation states interact with each other. In this context, the word describes a lack of supreme authority or a hierarchy within a system and not a lack of order; certainly not ‘chaos’.  Interpreting the state of anarchy between nations in this way is perhaps indicative of the perceptions of the observer of this interaction, a perception (confirmation) bias if you prefer. The type of hierarchical structure familiar to the said observer is absent, hence it is described as anarchy.  The common usage of anarchy – to emphasise the breakdown of a system – still leaves many questions in the Sri Lankan context. There is most certainly a breakdown of multiple systems in Sri Lanka – systems of agricultural fertiliser provision, financial reparations, basic services; these had all been broken for many months, some for years. When 700,000 people fell below the poverty line over a 12-month period, how did the State respond?  A matter of mandate On the subject, when was the last time this 16th Parliament of Sri Lanka was responsive to the people? In voting for Ranil Wickremesinghe as President, a majority of MPs voted against the overwhelming majority of Sri Lankans who rejected both Wickremesinghe and his party in 2020; is this not a breakdown in the system of representative democracy?  When MPs cast secret ballots in Parliament to elect an Executive, whilst also having the power to call for elections, is this not a system issue? Note that in this hierarchy, no matter what the media and society would have us believe, it is the people who are higher up the hierarchy than the constituents of Parliament. Parliament acting against the popular mandate might also be construed as anarchy if we are stretching definitions.  An illegitimate Prime Minister, circumventing democratic norms, ignoring peaceful protesters, and denying the public any semblance of accountability – none of this has been described as even contributing to a state of anarchy.  Fascist tendencies In using the word ‘fascist,’ Wickremesinghe seems to have ignored the authoritarian connotations of the word. Having not been elected to Parliament by voters, having intervened to take up the Prime Minister’s post to prolong Rajapaksa rule, and now being installed as President against public sentiment by a pro-Rajapaksa parliamentary majority, there is certainly more than a whiff of fascism. The unwillingness to consider resigning, ignoring historic protests, being unresponsive to public pressure – all reveal explicitly fascist tendencies. Political dissident Prof. Noam Chomsky describes German philosopher Rudolph Rocker’s idea of anarchism as a “…broad tendency in human development that seeks to identify structures of hierarchy, authority and domination that constrain human development, and then subject them to a very reasonable challenge: Justify yourself.” The current Parliament of Sri Lanka would fail such a challenge. People’s hardships Sri Lanka’s political drama may dissipate for a week or two at most, during which time, amid horse-trading over Cabinet posts, the Sri Lankan people will have to face further hardships.  The President used his brief period as Prime Minister to emphasise the depths of the economic collapse. The upper-middle classes on social media and beyond applaud the ‘truth-telling’ Prime Minister while leaving the working classes confused; they were already all too aware of the severity of the collapse.  Indeed, conservative estimates predict an economic contraction of around 6-7% by the end of 2022; this will likely be much worse. Further, Sri Lanka will face the sharp end of the commodity crunch, creating fears over food security. Further still, the global economy, by all indications, will plunge into a recession by the end of this year which will depress markets throughout the globe, exposing Sri Lanka further.  Capital flows will migrate to take advantage of higher USD interest rates, while the price of oil will continue to fall, assisting Sri Lanka’s balance of payments. There will also be a lack of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and tourism and Sri Lanka’s exports will once again struggle, having recovered in some sectors recently.  External challenges Worst of all, the Chinese economy has already begun showing signs of a slowdown that might border on a recession. The Chinese economy expanded by 0.4% in Q2 2022, which is the weakest performance since the Covid-19 outbreak.  There are also continued lockdowns in parts of China owing to the ‘Zero Covid’ policy; even Shanghai was under lockdown in March and April. There is also a mass revolt of homeowners threatening to stop paying their mortgages due to unfinished units purchased by them in failed projects.  Financial issues for our major development partner, China; possible recessions in our main export markets: the US and the EU; as well as continued hostilities in Ukraine threatening food supply – the signs suggest that the external environment may yet turn even more challenging for Sri Lanka. Economic plan for Sri Lanka Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka’s new administration, whatever form it takes, must formulate an economic plan with twin objectives. Firstly, the economy requires stabilisation; secondly, the economy must grow, this is the only way out of a recession. Economic stabilisation necessarily requires that Parliament regains political credibility and reasserts public legitimacy. This is a major hurdle for this specific chamber. Let’s assume that the new President appoints a non-partisan choice as prime minister, someone who enjoys support on both sides of the aisle as well as the common man and the activists of the Aragalaya. A long shot for sure.  Such an administration must still propose an economic plan that is viable to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and our creditors. In this regard, it must have multi-stakeholder involvement to ensure that there is public acceptance for whatever form austerity is likely to take.  Austerity, though painful, will be necessary for the stabilisation of the economy; however, it will not provide the growth necessary to beat the recession and this is where the fine art of constructing economic policy comes into play. It must be said that Sri Lanka has seldom displayed any version of such fine art.  The Sri Lankan economic conversation on television, on social media, and around kitchen tables tends to focus almost entirely on the cost side of the fiscal equation. There have been various policy statements, most recently a recalibration of the ‘Common Minimum Plan’ (CMP) compiled by the National Movement for Social Justice. This CMP is laudable in many respects, however, there is an alarming lack of emphasis on Government revenues as well as on the IMF’s own explicit spending priorities: education and health.  Fiscal conservatism Throughout his career, Ranil Wickremesinghe has fetishised fiscal conservatism, treating it as the all-encompassing panacea to Sri Lanka’s woes. History is now littered with nations that tried to overcome unsustainable debt and resulting recessions through campaigns of fiscal conservatism and austerity. Having undertaken over a decade of austerity, many European economies are finding that not only did austerity deepen economic issues, but it also did not reduce the ratio of debt to GDP across the Eurozone. It did however stabilise the banking system; it made the banks more profitable. It also led to further erosion of welfare and social security safety nets. This is the outcome that Ranil Wickremesinghe and his Cabinet of choice must aim to avoid.  An extended period of austerity that specifically affects Sri Lanka’s already-embattled working class and working poor will only lead to further instability, destroying prospects for both fiscal stability and economic growth, bringing Sri Lanka all the way back to square one.  (The writer has over a decade of experience in the banking sector after completing a degree in accounting and finance. He has completed a Master’s in International Relations and is currently reading for a PhD at the University of Colombo. He is also a freelance writer and researcher, and can be reached on email: kusumw@gmail.com and Twitter: @kusumw)  


More News..