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Bracing for impact 

14 Aug 2021

For want of a better analogy, Sri Lanka appears to be fast approaching its Titanic moment with the Covid iceberg looming large on the horizon. It was not long ago that an American think tank predicted Sri Lanka's daily death toll will hit 200 by end-August. That prediction has proven to be spot on, given the current controversy surrounding official pandemic-related data.  To make matters worse, just last week, a special World Health Organisation (WHO)-appointed committee, comprising the cream of local specialists on the subject, made the frightening prediction that a mindboggling 30,000 Sri Lankans could fall victim to the virus by next January, if the same stringent measures that were in place last May are not urgently implemented at least for a short period in order to stave off the inevitable. Even though provincial border restrictions have apparently been “tightened” for the umpteenth time, that measure alone is hardly likely to avert a catastrophe.  Senior government ministers, even as late as last Friday (13), went on record that the state of the economy does not allow a lockdown. They are correct, the economy matters and daily wage earners as well as big business need to survive in order to pay taxes and help the country overcome its debt woes. But the big question is, at what cost? In the lives versus economy equation, neither is likely to be the beneficiary the way things are going; it will have to be one or the other for the time being. For better or worse, it appears that the Government has made that call and it will now have to live with its decision.   In adapting to this new reality, there is talk of a cabinet reshuffle. Taken as a whole, none of the present set of ministers have displayed a progressive outlook for the jobs they have been entrusted. Unfortunately, the collective lack of initiative and resourcefulness has been telling on the economy with it stumbling from one crisis to the other. Given the do or die circumstances (no pun intended) one can only hope that the proposed reshuffle will at least now put the right people in the right places.  One-and-a-half years into the job, the present Health Minister has proven to be a misfit in this most critical role. Her claim to fame so far has been the promotion of a dubious concoction as a home-grown cure for Covid and when that didn’t go well, seeking divine intervention by dumping pots in rivers. If expertise and experience are the criteria for the post, the frontrunner at this juncture seems to be the current State Minister, Dr. Sudarshini Fernandopulle, whose role so far has been relegated to the far corners of the Health Ministry by the incumbent Minister.  With the data manipulation controversy blowing up in the public domain, it is unfathomable and indeed unforgivable that state officials, whose primary duty is to ensure the safety and wellbeing of the public, allegedly connived with some others to mislead the political authority for no other conceivable reason than to be in their good books. The fact that the revelation came from one of the Government's strongest allies, no doubt gives added credence to the allegations which the Government must now fully investigate. People’s precious lives should never be the playing of corrupt officials craving for a pat on the back. Once the culprits are identified, they must be expeditiously brought before the law.  It appears that State Minister Fernandopulle smelled a rat months ago when she stated that actual casualty figures could be two to three times higher than the official figures trotted out. Nearly a thousand people have died in the past week alone, according to official data. The Opposition is up in arms that the figure is much higher. As the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire. Who should be held accountable for this shameless and disrespectful practice aimed at duping the people?  The health sector, which has been creaking at the seams for the past few weeks, has been warning of an imminent breakdown if the numbers continue to rise. The way case numbers have been trending, that is not going to happen anytime soon. The moment of truth is now upon us. The explosion of cases can no longer be hidden through data manipulation, as the corpses piling up in mortuaries speak a very different story.  Given the status quo, what really is the indecent hurry to open up the country to tourists with overseas travel restrictions being further eased, especially targeting India? Are we a nation that never learns from its mistakes? On the flip side, are the powers that be, so naive as to think that simply opening the country to tourists would result in an influx and therefore, an end to the current economic woes? The penny-wise, pound-foolish strategy backfired the last time it was tried with the Ukrainians and now a repeat seems to be in the offing. The only tourists likely to head this way at the present juncture are the tight-fisted bargain hunters. No self-respecting tourist is going to waltz into a country where a pandemic is in full swing. The travel insurance costs alone will be prohibitive.  Authorities must consider whether it is worthwhile to risk the lives of thousands for a few extra dollars. The advent of the Delta variant is widely attributed to the premature re-opening of the airport and now, we are leaving the gates open for other variants like Lambda to be added to the cocktail of variants the country has to deal with. The need of the hour is to put our house in order before inviting visitors. Cart-before-the-horse solutions will only add to the problems already facing the nation. That the pundits sitting in high places have failed to grasp this fundamental reality, explains a lot about the nation’s predicament.  As much as a cabinet reshuffle seems like a good idea, it will be meaningful only if the right people are put in the right places. For instance, the education portfolio is probably the next most critical at the present juncture, in light of the multiple crises facing the sector. The grapevine had it that the person earmarked for the job lacks even basic educational qualifications. If that is the end result, then it would be a case of pushing the people from the frying pan into the fire.  Important decisions, including but not limited to cabinet appointments, usually end up punching a hole in “Brand Sri Lanka”. Painstakingly built over many years by a handful of heroes, the last thing the country can afford is a dent in its brand equity. In this pandemic-driven digital age, global brand value or national equity is the name of the game, be it in attracting tourists or even foreign direct investment. Right now, this image is taking a beating owing to the soaring Covid cases. In fact, a random Google search will indicate that Sri Lanka’s casualty rate is now higher than India’s based on population ratio. In fact, it is one of the top 20 countries most affected by the pandemic with a mortality rate of 1.6% according to data published by the John Hopkins University as of yesterday (14). This is data that is freely available to a global audience and which cannot be manipulated by local authorities.  Any attempt to restore the economy has and will be intrinsically linked to first overcoming the pandemic handicap. Judging by what is taking place, it is clear that the powers that be, have missed the wood for the trees. For, as much as the pandemic is likely to be around for a while and just as much as we need to get used to living with it, it is of paramount importance that the authorities first get the situation under some degree of control before economic ambitions get the better of them. Frustration is not going to help the cause as publicly displayed by the Government Cabinet Spokesperson last week, wherein he stated that there is only so much that the Government could do and the rest is up to God. The bottom line is that in order to get the economy moving, the pandemic must first be brought under control. Not the other way around. 


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