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Does everyone feel the ‘death spiral’ the same way?

14 Mar 2022

How far is the reach of the regular messaging these days that Sri Lanka is now beyond repair? It’s an extremely valid question, because a lot turns on it. The issues of perceptions about Sri Lanka being on a “death spiral” are mediated by considerations of class in the main. At the moment, the urban dweller is the bearer of the message that the country is convulsed in death throes, and of course this is because of the lived experience of these people. They went through hell the past few months, enduring seven-hour power cuts and gas shortages that added to their regular woes with ever-rising costs and sundry shortages of essentials, all shortly after they had to endure work stoppages during the pandemic.  So the country seems to have broken out in one refrain – that it is in its “death throes”. It is no doubt partly the Opposition’s framing of issues, but then when the people are literally in the dark and are condemned to queuing up from morning till night, they would buy into any message. But is this message equally pervasive as it is in suburbia in the rural village? Does the slogan of “this is the end” have universal resonance? Yes and no, because the country suffers as a whole when the economy suffers in the big cities and adjacent suburbia. So there is no escaping the message even in the rural sector, and it is the same refrain there, which is that the people never bargained for this when they voted for president Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. However, how long will this message endure, and how deep-going is its importance in the context of who will govern in the near future, and where the country is headed in the long term? It seems there is a massive class cleavage in the manner this issue is being viewed and that’s clear from the varying degrees of seriousness with which the call “these are end times” is taken up as a slogan. Those from the working classes in suburbia are more seriously invested in this messaging than their rural counterparts.  The urban dweller has been badly hit, but the rural self-employed are far less hurt by the economic fallout from what’s going on these days. Besides that, the rural voter is mostly progressive and would eventually come around to supporting the ruling party if conditions settle fast enough in the near future. But the outlook seems to be vastly different for the suburban worker who has been harassed to the point of feeling physically cornered almost, by the multiple breakdowns in the social order. Daily queue-standing and the fact that people’s earnings don’t stretch enough has meant that they have felt their dreams of making it in life through the dint of hard work have been shattered. Now, they feel they live for the day, and that the struggle for survival is the only mission at hand. Essentially then, there is a class gulf in the way in which people think about this doomsday messaging. The middle classes are unhappy and feel terribly hard done by, but the rural underprivileged are not especially hurt by any of the tough economic realities because they have not been used to much by way of luxury and convenience anyway. The rural bounty is also at their disposal. Rural economies can be to some extent self-sustained and people get by, selling and exchanging wares with each other by barter if they do not have the cash! That’s how different the rural economy is, and to the average villager, the middle class concerns of gas and fuel are peripheral. It’s not as if these concerns are absent, and it will be absurd to assert that they are. Rural dwellers rely vastly on diesel to power tractors and the “batta” lorries, etc., that a lot of them use for transportation. But, for getting from point A to B, the motorcycle is the preferred method of mobility – a little bit of petrol at the pump, and they would be happy. If the current crop of economic troubles seem to end and soon the Government is able to get a handle on this situation, the rural support base of the ruling party would rally quickly, and come around to the realisation that there are other issues besides economy that they were always passionate about, on which they can look to the regime for answers. All this then would play out as a way of a class battle when it comes to voting in an election that is held in the future. This is why there is some truth in the assertion – come to think of it – that Gotabaya and Basil Rajapaksa et al. are playing the long game. So far, long game or short, they have been losing it. But that’s the nature of the long game, the regime’s leadership seems to be certain. The journey has to take its trajectory through rough terrain before the path clears. That was apparent enough during the war for instance, where there was a known enemy and the people were able to identify with what the Government was up against. But this time around, most of the people are not convinced the virus or any other circumstance is an “enemy” they can identify with and relate to. The ruling Rajapaksas seem to be of the view that the enemy – identifiable or not – should be used to purge the party and the ruling apparatus of the dross, so that they could get on with the project of aligning the country with the powers they think would usher in prosperity to the country.  But, even if the long game is what the Rajapaksas are playing, enough damage has been done already that it seems an optimistic hope that they can reverse the trend of public opinion against the regime. So the Rajapaksas must be convinced the return on their long-term investment would be so good that it would reverse trends and change minds that are already dead set against them. Optimistic, but it is also not likely that those of the likes of Basil and Gotabaya Rajapaksa do not have a plan.  Their estimation would be that when the worst of times are done, there would be people who return to their fold, partly because this moment is defined by class, and there is never any likelihood that those who identify themselves as the oppressed would gravitate when it comes to the crunch, to the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the ghost, for all intents and purposes, of the arch capitalist United National Party (UNP). If this is a class war, there are no signs at the moment that anybody from the oppressed classes are aligning now with the regime. Nobody seems to be buying the regime’s explanation that the hardships of the moment are the result of some global cataclysm that the rulers could not prevent. They seem to be either going with the opposition’s dark interpretation of events, or are watching silently how things would turn out. But yet, the middle class voter seems to have already decided that this regime is history.  Therein are seen the clear contours of class. The impatient are among the middle and upper-middle classes, and they scoff at the idea that there would be a turnaround or that they should wait for a turnaround even if there was to be one. But those who do not recognise that the travails of today are mediated by the considerations of class don’t have their finger on the public pulse, and such political analyses that are rooted on the superficial will not be useful.  Class considerations of course do not stand alone; the issues of religion and culture are also, though not uppermost in the minds of the people at the moment, not far away from their thoughts. It is from this maelstrom of contending issues that must emerge the future reality. (The writer is a former Editor-in-Chief of three national English language publications and a practicing Attorney-at-Law. He is an Editors’ Guild award-winning columnist, and contributing writer and columnist for the Nikkei Asian Review and South China Morning Post, while his editorials have been published in The Australian) ……………………………………………………. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication.  

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Discover Kapruka, the leading online shopping platform in Sri Lanka, where you can conveniently send Gifts and Flowers to your loved ones for any event. Explore a wide range of popular Shopping Categories on Kapruka, including Toys, Groceries, Electronics, Birthday Cakes, Fruits, Chocolates, Automobile, Mother and Baby Products, Clothing, and Fashion. Additionally, Kapruka offers unique online services like Money Remittance, Astrology, Medicine Delivery, and access to over 700 Top Brands. Also If you’re interested in selling with Kapruka, Partner Central by Kapruka is the best solution to start with. Moreover, through Kapruka Global Shop, you can also enjoy the convenience of purchasing products from renowned platforms like Amazon and eBay and have them delivered to Sri Lanka.Send love straight to their heart this Valentine's with our thoughtful gifts!


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