Out of the blue, our country’s President spoke of his willingness to run for a second term of office, although elections are not due for more than three years, as per media reports.
This however raises the specter in some quarters of Provincial Council Elections, which are long overdue.
But with the country devastated by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is essential that nothing should rock the boat of recovery, and we therefore beseech our policymakers to put aside all thoughts of something as disruptive and selfish as an election and concentrate on bringing the nation back to normalcy. In fact, it’s best if none of our politicians even mention the word election for at least another year!
The country needs stability to recover.
Covid-19 will become a non-factor by September
Covid-19 vaccines are now pouring into Sri Lanka. The largest numbers are from Sinopharm, but there are now significant numbers of the other vaccines as well. As of last Thursday, more than 6.5 million Sri Lankans (30% of the total population) have received the first dose of one of the several types of vaccines now in Sri Lanka, and of these more than 1.7 million (8% of the total population) have received their second dose as well (Source: Institute for Health Policy). Every day now, about 225,000 more people are receiving their first doses, which means that the total number vaccinated is likely to double by the end of August. That would be 13 million out of our 21 million population. That’s over 60% of the population. By mid-September, the number would cross 70%. Many studies show that once 70% of a population is vaccinated, the spread of any type of disease begins to drop rapidly. Thus, if all goes well with the vaccine supply, and new variants that are resistant to the vaccines don’t disrupt the situation, Sri Lanka should start heading out of the woods in late September.
That’s when we can expect schools to reopen and the economy, which is struggling to sputter back to life, to take some firm steps forward. Once the winter tourist season begins in December, with an expected huge influx of foreign currency, our economy should be on a relatively stable footing.
But these are all projections. Sri Lankans have a bad habit of disrupting our own progress and indeed our own lives, with an annoying regularity. A move to hold any type of election would cause further havoc with the economy that we cannot afford.
Foreign investors hate political instability
Elections bring instability in many ways. Potential policy stability for foreign direct investment (FDI) could be the breaker in a new territory for the business sector. The relevance of this driver is connected with its broad and diverse ramifications that affect the various facets of a country’s political, financial, and economic characteristics. The critical criteria of possible FDI destinations include corruption, terrorism, institutional strength, and the rule of law. GoSL is responsible for the rule-setting to encourage FDI. Even in the more well-established economies of the United States and the UK, events like the recent American elections and Brexit could lead businesses to reassess their base operations. GoSL can’t simply treat this issue lightly.
Don’t disrupt tourism
No tourist in their right mind wants to visit an unstable country. As insurance premiums for such dicey destinations tend to be very high, foreign tour operators are also extremely reluctant to take the risk of sending tourists to unstable countries. One of the key influences on insurance company evaluations is the travel advisory that is put out by each government’s foreign ministry. Travel advisories are also closely related - when one country issues an adverse travel advisory, others quickly follow suit. And a surefire way to get a bad travel advisory is to schedule an election.
In the past, our politicians, whose setting of dates for elections is most often guided by soothsayers, have frequently disrupted the winter tourist season.
Covid-19 has put people in a bad mood
Sri Lankan elections are violent. Incidents of electoral violence against candidates must be understood in their specific social context to recognise their causes and methods of perpetration fully. Regular episodes of physical violence such as shooting, stabbing, beatings, and property destruction plagued the elections at all levels. Several polls on various political levels have since taken place. During these elections, local (for example, the Centre for Election Violence Monitoring) and foreign (for example, European Union) election observation missions recorded violence in many forms, including deadly violence.
The high level of electoral violence in Sri Lanka has been made clear through several factors, including, for example, the president’s decisive leadership. The militarisation of politics results from conflicts between the Government and political parties – multi member elections, which demand higher-cost campaigning and increased competition, due to changing into the proportional system and politicians’ dependency for political survival on criminal groups and thugs. The following figures demonstrate the violent nature of Sri Lankan elections.
Fig. 1. Total pre-election incidents breakdown (1355) (Source: CMEV-election observation report, 2020)
Fig. 2. Post-election incidents (346) (Source: CMEV-election observation report, 2020)
Fig 3. Total election day incidents breakdown (346) (Source: CMEV-election observation report, 2020)
Elections make the country non-productive for weeks
How long the economy can fully recover from the Covid-19 shock or witness a further commodity boom in the province is unclear. The economy could provide a more serious hurdle for the incumbent party when the provincial recovery is weak, federal funding dries up, and local debt rises. Maybe it won’t, then again, it’s not always economical, stupid, after all.
We can’t afford the expense of an election - blind sighted elections expenditure
The Treasury in Sri Lanka had allocated Rs. 8.5 billion for the National Election Commission, which was an increase from Rs. 2.95 billion spent on parliamentary elections for 2015 and explained the cost of parliamentary elections. This jump in recent years rapidly increases inflation, together with pandemic protection measures in the current polls. According to the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), in 2004 the Government spent Rs. 850 million on the parliamentary elections. If we were to divide it by the registered electorate at that time, they spent around Rs. 67 per person. It jumped to Rs. 139 in 2010, and last year (2020) cost us Rs. 523 per person this year. These figures are only what is officially declared. Much of the election expenditure is in the form of black money, which is not visible.
During the election period, candidates contesting the elections held today in Sri Lanka spent Rs. 2.2 billion. Each of the individual candidates spent about Rs. 80 million since the campaign began based on the Centre for Monitoring Electoral Violence (CMEV).
We need electoral reform; the electoral party does not talk about that. The few parties who speak about this, significant issues such as spending or the limit set during an election aren’t addressed.
Fig. 4. Campaign costs. (Source: Centre for Monitoring Election Violence [CMEV]), 2020
The CMEV data discloses that three of SLPP’s top competitors account for the most critical chapter in campaigning-related expenses up to 5 November, with an enormous Rs. 784 million spent. This is 59% of the total spent by five major investors.
The NDF-led UNP has spent Rs. 496 million, but the JVP National People’s Power (NPP election)’s campaign expenditure amounts to Rs. 35 million (2.6%). Janasetha Peramuna and the National Movement of People have invested Rs. 5 million and Rs. 2 million, respectively.
Integrity of Covid-19 elections
The caution requiring any Covid-19 election, not to damage the integrity or validity of an election is essential to whether an election should take place or be postponed. IDEA believes the epidemic brings about three fundamental electoral limitations:
- freedom of movement and assembly restrictions
- hazards relating to health for voters and officials
- operational challenges and delays
As such, the integrity of Covid-19 elections is challenged by several aspects, including campaign imitation; restrictions on access to votes; barriers to the transparency of electoral processes; Risks to legitimacy of election results and additional financial and administrative constraints.
| © Niresh Eliatamby and Nicholas Ruwan Dias
Dr. Nicholas Ruwan Dias, BSc, MSc, PhD, and Niresh Eliatamby, LL.B., LL.M., MBA, are Managing Partners of the Cogitaro Group, a diversified group of companies that includes businesses in several fields, a professional consultancy firm, and activism in the areas of gender equality, environment and differently abled rights.
Dr. Dias is a digital architect, entrepreneur and educationist based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He is the Head of Solution Delivery for a global insurance giant. ruwan@cogitaro.com
Eliatamby is an entrepreneur, author and lecturer in Law and Marketing based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. He was previously the Associate Editor of a national newspaper. niresh@cogitaro.com |
