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‘Historic mistakes’: Then and now

07 May 2022

The self-proclaimed ‘Night Watchman’ of the beleaguered Government made quite a splash in Parliament last week when he revealed that Sri Lanka’s usable foreign reserves were down to the last $ 50 million, roughly enough for one fuel shipment. Having resigned from the post of Finance Minister and then reappointed under questionable circumstances when no one else wanted the job and later reappointed as Justice Minister as well, he is undoubtedly the regime’s most trusted lieutenant and privy to the inner workings of the State, including just how precarious the financial situation really is. This is probably why in his own infinite wisdom, he realised the futility of pulling another Cabraal and decided to tell it as it is to a nation that was already pretty much aware of the ground reality. His admission in Parliament that the slashing of taxes in 2019 was a “historic mistake” and in fact the root cause of the current predicament, in complete contrast to his predecessor, offered a slight ray of hope that the administration finally had a finance minister who actually understood the problem that needed fixing. And while on the subject of ‘historic mistakes,’ next week marks the completion of exactly one year since the imposition of the fertiliser import ban and overnight switch to organic farming, which decision a year later has brought the nation to the cusp of a historic food shortage. The Finance Minister began his special statement by introducing himself as the ‘Night Watchman’ – cricketing jargon for a makeshift batsman whose only job is to defend his wicket until the close of play so that a proper batsman can come to the crease all fresh the next morning. The message that he unintentionally or otherwise conveyed to the world was that he was only a temporary Finance Minister, waiting for someone else to take over at the earliest opportunity. For an administration craving stability in order to reassure its creditors, this was certainly not the ideal message, just as much as the rest of the speech, which painted a dismal picture of the current status of the economy. For the first time in history, Sri Lanka is staring at the prospect of an empty Treasury with only a few token gestures of ‘assistance’ to bank on. That the administration waited until the economy hit rock bottom to explain the situation to the people itself deserves a vote of no confidence in the people’s court as it has irreparably compromised the social and economic security of every one of the country’s 22 million citizens. One only has to hit the streets to understand the palpable sense of anger and frustration of the people at what is going on in the Government and the motivation to lend their voice to the growing protest movement. Following in the footsteps of the Finance Minister, the people themselves are beginning to cry ‘mea culpa’ on street corners. What is driving the people’s sense of anger and frustration is the sheer lack of empathy on the part of the administration which has, for all intents and purposes, put the economy on autopilot. The only time the administration appears to step in is to raise prices and issue Gazette notices for the same. With a State of Emergency being declared as of yesterday (7) and given the brutal crackdown on protests in the vicinity of Parliament in the days leading up to it, where iron barriers, water cannon, and tear gas have been the order of the day, it is apparent that use of force to stifle peaceful protests is now becoming the norm rather than the exception. What is worrisome is that rather than attempting to mitigate a confrontational situation, the Police seem hell bent on provoking a clash. If this new trend continues, spilling of blood on the streets will be inevitable and along with it a drastic and irreversible escalation of the protest movement. Our leaders, even though advanced in age, appear to have learnt nothing from recent history. It was a similar youth movement in 1987 albeit for different reasons, which the then Government attempted to crush with an iron hand that led to it going underground, resulting in three years of absolute carnage and thousands of unfortunate deaths. That grave miscalculation on the part of the rulers at the time cost the nation dearly for years to come and most certainly warrants inclusion in the list of ‘historic mistakes’ made by our leaders that have resulted in the country being plunged to the depths of despair time and again. Already, the international community and the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) have come down hard on the declaration of a State of Emergency, calling into question the necessity for such a measure when the protests have been absolutely peaceful. What the administration needs to do even at this late hour, rather than wasting already-depleted resources on fighting protestors and wasting limited funds on importing riot control gear, is to sort out the economic mess that has led to the protests in the first place. In order for that to happen a prerequisite is that its architects step aside and make way for a new interim administration. The need of the hour is sense and sensibility. No economic solution can ever be found with the use of Emergency laws and the resort to stifling of dissent through the use of force. The Government might as well kiss goodbye to any IMF assistance or for that matter bilateral aid, which is what has kept the home fires burning so far. Already the US Ambassador in Colombo, the European Union, the Canadian High Commissioner, and other diplomats have frowned on the declaration of Emergency and such concern will surely rub off on the IMF, on which the country is now wholly dependent for a way out of the mess. One can only hope that the GSP Plus concession made available by the EU will not become a casualty of the administration’s lack of foresight. Even though the Finance Minister spelled out in detail the challenges facing the nation, he fell short of proposing any tangible solutions other than hinting at the restoration of the Yahapalana era tax regime. The Minister will do well to keep in mind that the Yahapalana era tax regime was possible only because the business sector as a whole was doing relatively better back then. If a similar tax structure is to be implemented in the current business environment, it will be akin to pulling the plug on the ventilator that is keeping business alive. Up until now no proper solution has been provided to the agriculture crisis, which precipitated the larger crisis, with yet another cultivation season likely to be wasted owing to the unavailability of fertiliser. The Government must realise that by importing tear gas instead of fertiliser, it is only adding fuel to an already raging fire.  Even though India has stepped in to provide interim relief by way of payment deferrals, credit lines, currency swaps, etc., its dubious record of fishing in troubled waters has inevitably called into question its bona fides and newfound love for Sri Lanka. It was reported recently that a part of the Indian credit line for food had been utilised by the Government for “essential construction industry requirements” and, more specifically, steel imports. One cannot help but wonder whether these steel imports constitute the mass of steel barricades stretching for several kilometres installed around Parliament with shiny new GI pipes. Reports have also surfaced of new water cannon trucks being imported from India in the recent past. If in fact Big Brother has the best interests of its neighbour at heart, what it can do in order to bring about durable political stability is to fund the holding of an election, which appears imminent given the current political stalemate. For an election to take place, Parliament itself must vote to have one since it has proven itself incapable of resolving the issues at hand and every minute delayed is taking the country further down the precipice. It will be moot for the Opposition to shift focus to this agenda rather than go through the cumbersome process of a No-Confidence Motion and then an impeachment, both of which are currently on the agenda. It is estimated that the cost of maintaining Parliament for each day it is in session is around Rs. 8 million. The whole of the past week the House was in session with nothing tangible to show for the colossal expense incurred, while the people who foot the bill were the recipients of tear gas and water cannons. The fiasco of the election of a deputy speaker is a case in point. After all, what is the point of a Parliament that has to barricade itself from the people they claim to represent? Given this hopeless situation and unwillingness of the main Opposition to take over governance under the incumbent President, nothing short of a General Election can sort out the mess that has been created. If the mandate of the next administration is to abolish the Executive Presidency, then it solves that problem as well, with the re-introduction of 19 Plus and the creation of a nominal presidency. It is learnt that nearly all parties currently represented in Parliament including the main Opposition SJB are in principle in agreement with the governance model proposed by the BASL. With that as the roadmap, the newly-elected party can quickly get about fixing the economy as it can go to the lenders with the confidence of having the backing of the people and thereby the capacity to implement economic reforms. Historic mistakes call for historic change. That is what the country is crying out for.  


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