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Impending power shortfall this year: Heading for blackouts?  

10 Jan 2021

[caption id="attachment_112979" align="aligncenter" width="880"] The Sapugaskanda Asia Power Plant is one of the power plants that are scheduled to be retired this year [/caption]  

  • No decision yet on how to bridge impending power deficit  

  • CEB to again propose extension of PPAs of three private companies 

  Questions have been raised over the preparedness of the state-run Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) for the upcoming drought period where the hydropower output will not be enough to meet the power deficit predicted by the board’s engineers.  At the end of last year, the deficit was said to be around 300 MW.  In a context where the Cabinet has rejected the proposal made by the CEB to extend the existing Power Purchasing Agreements (PPA) with the Private Power Companies (PPC), The Sunday Morning learnt that the CEB is yet to decide on how it should fill the power generating gap predicted to erupt as a result of receding hydropower generation during the drought period.     In a similar situation in March 2019, when the then Power and Energy Minister Ravi Karunanayake decided to say “no” to emergency power purchasing, the CEB had to impose power cuts, as they claimed that the generation was not enough to meet the demand due to the reduction of hydropower generation and the failure of successive governments to build new power plants as per the power generation plan formulated by the CEB.  Therefore, questions have been raised as to whether the CEB is bracing for another series of power cuts if the country does not receive enough rainfall to generate enough hydropower within the next few months.  As learnt by The Sunday Morning, the total power demand has been reduced by 3% in 2020 due to Covid-19 pandemic, as the country went on a three-month lockdown to curb the spread of the deadly virus.  However, as usual, the energy crisis re-erupted, when the Cabinet rejected the proposal submitted by the Ministry of Power to get the approval for extending existing power agreements with three private power companies to purchase around 170 MW of emergency power. The Ministry confirmed that the Cabinet had rejected the proposal while approving several other measures submitted by the Ministry to mitigate the crisis.  The present annual energy demand of the country is approximately 15,000 GWh and expected to grow at a rate of 5.5 % annually in coming years. In order to meet the forecasted electricity demand of 22,501 GWh by 2025, the present installed capacity of 4,217 MW has to be increased up to 6,966 MW by 2025. As per the present medium term power generation plan, it appears that a capacity of 2,749 MW has to be added to the system to cater to the demand by 2025.    The authorities have forecasted rainfall reduction especially in April, and therefore there would be restrictions on hydropower generation. To mitigate it, the CEB recommended that around 170 MW would need to be added to the national grid on a supplementary basis.  The proposal was submitted to the Cabinet last month to extend the purchasing agreements with Ace Power Matara, Ace Power Embilipitiya, and Asia Power Sapugaskanda which will be terminated in April and June this year, Power Ministry Spokesman Sulakshana Jayawardene told The Sunday Morning.  He said that the three agreements all together supplied a total of 170 MW to the national grid.  The proposal to extend the power agreements have been submitted to the Cabinet to meet the power shortage expected in the dry season, he said, adding that the extending of power agreements was among a few other proposals submitted by them. The CEB cannot go ahead with the agreements without cabinet approval, he added.  However, the Cabinet has approved 130 MW of supplementary power, he said.  The cabinet paper submitted by the Ministry of Power in October, as seen by The Sunday Morning, has mentioned several issues pertaining to the growing electricity demand. It is stated that it would take at least three years for the planned projects to begin power generation. Until then, temporary “stop gap arrangements” have to be introduced to cater to the growing electricity demand. The 100 MW of auto diesel-fired supplementary capacities added to the grid was depleted in August 2020. Furthermore, certain power plants that are scheduled to be retired will create a vacuum of 270 MW by mid-2021. These power plants include the 100 MW Ace Power Embilipitiya Power Plant (to retire in April 2021), the 20 MW Ace Power Matara Power Plant (to retire in April 2021), and the 50 MW Sapugaskanda Asia Power Plant (to retire in April 2021). The cabinet paper also highlighted other concerns such as unforeseeable technical issues, breakdowns, and disasters.   The CEB has proposed to adopt several medium and short-term initiatives in the form of “stop gap arrangements” to bridge the capacity shortage, including the adding of medium-term furnace oil-fired power capacity of up to 200 MW for a term of 10 years. In that regard, it is to commence negotiations with the three furnace oil-fired IPP (independent power producer) plants (ACE Power Embilipitiya, Ace Power Matara, and Asia Power) to extend the contract period from 2021 to December 2023. This will cover the procurement of auto diesel-fired supplementary capacities that are to be located at different grid locations in capacities of 24 MW or less at each location, having a total capacity of 130 MW for a one year period, either from the 128 MW capacity that was tendered in December 2019 and approved by the Cabinet, or through a fresh tender. In contrast, some experts questioned the methodology applied by the CEB to calculate the country’s power deficit.  Speaking to The Sunday Morning, an energy expert Dr. Vidura Ralapanawa said that there is no proper analysis to show how much power is needed.   “They have projected a certain amount of rainfall and we have exceeded the reservoir capacity,” he noted.  He stressed that the CEB has been criminally negligent of one of their own power plants like Kelanitissa combined power plant of 163 MW which is the largest thermal power plant CEB owns.  “They shut it down for repairs in June 2018. It has not been repaired. One of the parts that were broken has not been procured.” he stated.    He went on to say that the period of less rain starts in late January, and we will not get rain until late April.  “We should be very careful in how we use water from October. Coal plants are also not working from October. They normally schedule coal power plants for October. You should schedule it for the southwest monsoon,” Dr. Ralapanawa added.  He also noted that the cabinet paper misstates certain elements regarding the ACE power deal.  “They took some of the information from the CEB and twisted it. If the Cabinet is misled by the Ministry on facts and figures, then the Cabinet can’t make a correct decision. The Cabinet is misled by the Ministry Secretary,” he alleged.  Highlighting the proposal to extend the PPA’s, he said: “There is no provision in the CEB Act to do an extension to PPA. The last Government also did it and the PUCSL didn’t accept it. The Ministry should have simply said one year is not enough and let’s do it for three years. Knowingly or unknowingly, the Cabinet also fell. It’s very risky to say you don’t need it. But we don’t have good enough analysis.”  Meanwhile, when contacted by The Sunday Morning, the CEB Chairman Eng. Vijitha Herath said no decision has been taken as yet by the Board regarding the extension of the power plants.  However, he said that the proposal would once again be submitted to the Cabinet to purchase power from the already existing three private power companies to extend the agreement at least by six months. “We haven’t submitted the proposal as yet,” he added.  He said that purchasing electricity from already existing diesel power companies would reduce the expenditure rather than going for new companies. “The tariffs are lower than the current rates. We purchase electricity for around Rs. 23 while it will be increased by around Rs. 10 if we go with new companies,” he added.  According to CEB statistics, around 70 % of the energy requirement of the country is currently provided by thermal power (coal and oil) and the rest by the hydropower and a very small amount of power is also generated by the windpower.  According to the CEB’s plan, three power plants (70 MW, 100 MW and 150 MW) were proposed to meet the demand from 2018 until major power plants are implemented.  Accordingly, the total hydropower generation connected to the national grid was only 20.23% out of the total generation as at Thursday evening, while 44.76% was supported from thermal oil and the rest from thermal oil.  Speaking to The Sunday Morning, a senior engineer at the CEB stressed that going for emergency power whether it likes it or not was inevitable to avoid possible power cuts.  According to him, this year, the CEB had to go for an emergency to fill the energy deficit. “Last year, we had good rains and therefore, we had a good hydropower generation, but this year, we can’t exactly say that we will be receiving the same amount of rainfall,” he added.  As learnt by The Sunday Morning, all major power plants expected from 2015 as per the generation plan of 2013 were cancelled and the plants included 1x105 MW of gas turbine, 2x250MW of Trincomalee coal power plant and coal power plants of 300MW each from 2021, 2022, and 2023.  However, during that time, as highlighted by an official attached to the PUCSL who wished to remain anonymous, the CEB had purchased  155 MW, 180 MW, and 320 MW of emergency power in 2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively.  There had been no new power plant in the country since the commissioning of the Norochcholai power plant in 2014 and in 2015, 60 MW of barge mounted power in Colombo. In the years 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, not a single megawatt of energy had been added to the system and as a result, the crisis has been aggravated during that period.   Photos CEB


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