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Manufacturing activity picks up as yields are on the rise

12 Apr 2021

Releasing a statement recently, Fitch reported that record-high Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) manufacturing readings suggest that global activity is picking up strongly even as government restrictions remain in place to varying degrees. Government bond yields have risen as investors expect economies to bounce back and inflation to increase further, as illustrated in Fitch Ratings’ latest “20/20 Vision” chart pack. March's PMI outturns – of unprecedented magnitude – revealed the resilience of the manufacturing sector amid continued on-and-off lockdowns. Eurozone and Germany recorded all-time high readings – 62.5 and 66.6, respectively – while France, Italy, Spain, the US, and the UK are around multi-year highs, driven by strong demand as well as improving confidence. Ongoing supply chain disruptions, however, point to rising input costs for manufacturers while very optimistic business expectations foreshadow further growth in production. On that backdrop, government bond yields have risen, signalling that activity is coming back but also compounding the inflationary pressure that already exists. Fitch's bi-monthly “20/20 Vision” chart pack covers the 20 major economies that are the focus of Fitch's economics team’s global macro analysis and plots five years of high-frequency economic data for 20 variables, with consistent coverage across each country. 

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