It is learnt that the UNF Government, prior to last week's Cabinet meeting, had discuses the need to raise objections to the manner in which the President operated while being the Head of the Government."Although he (the President) is the Head of the Government, he is behaving like the Opposition Leader," a senior UNF Minister said. He further noted that the growing dissension over the President's actions from within the Government was now reaching boiling point.Some of the UNF Government last week discussed the possibility of slashing President Sirisena's budgetary allocations in the 2019 Budget or not vote to pass the allocation during the 2019 Budget vote in Parliament next month. The UNF ministers are of the opinion that the Government needs to show the President the displeasure among members of his Government at his antics. The term “realpolitik” entered into parlance after it was coined by Ludwig von Rochau – a 19th Century German writer/politician in his celebrated 1853 book. Although “realpolitik” in some instances is used pejoratively to refer to politics that is deemed or viewed as coercive, amoral, or Machiavellian, its proponents often perceive it as “pragmatic politics”. As most Sri Lankans feel that policy-wise overzealous (i.e. unrealistic?) politics do not work in the current context of our society – a game which former President, Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa is to have specialised – proponents of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s administration too seem to be somewhat tilted towards “realpolitik”, at least after the 51-day illegal coup. Or maybe not! With the move by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe-led United National Front (UNF) facing numerous hurdles and multiple obstacles over the forming of the much anticipated National Government, it is likely to be kept on hold. Although the national government proposal that sought the green light to increase the number of cabinet ministers to 48 and the non-cabinet and deputy ministers to 45 which was originally intended to be presented to Parliament last 7 February and was yet again deferred to 20 February (coming Wednesday), is reportedly postponed indefinitely. The UNF Parliamentary Group is to meet on Wednesday afternoon, but the motion on the national government is unlikely to be taken up for discussion since the Government has been unable to reach a consensus on the matter. Just like it faced a lot of criticism from the United National Party (UNP) backbencher MPs at the previous week’s party parliamentary group meeting, at last week’s gathering it was decided that with the crucial parliamentary debate on the Constitutional Council (CC) scheduled for 21 (Thursday) and condolences falling on Friday; the proposal on the national government is to be further delayed with the Wickremesinghe administration knowing that it is unlikely to get the green light from Parliament unless the parties that stood with him through thick and thin during the 51-day illegal coup – the 16-member strong Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the six-member strong Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) – support the proposal. In addition, UNF sources say that Wickremesinghe is desirous of more parties joining the grand broad alliance. A group of Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) MPs in the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), who were initially expected to extend their support towards the formation of a national government, are now thinking twice due to several reasons. Key among these reasons is the resolute stance of the President that none of the SLFP MPs should support the formation of a national government and the threat of disciplinary action against any SLFP MPs who supports the UNF’s motion to increase portfolios. The inability of the UNF members to reach a consensus on forming a national government has also posed a deterrent to the SLFP MPs earlier supportive of the proposal. However, it is also learnt that Wickremesinghe’s closest confidantes had pointed out to him that, in the likely event of the UNF being unable to form the national government and is left with a hung Parliament in which it is unable to execute the party’s development programme, the Prime Minister would have no choice but to consider the possibility of going for an early general election. Be that as it may, the growing ill feeling between President Sirisena and the UNF Government is likely to reach a boiling point soon. Gearing for polls It is learnt that since President Maithripala Sirisena is highly unlikely to declare a presidential election prematurely, which the UNP sees as most advantageous to it, and is pushing for provincial elections (PC), which many UNPers see as being most disadvantageous to it, it would have to be happy in finding a middle ground settling for a general election. However, the 19th Amendment to the 1978 Constitution affords only two instances where Parliament can be dissolved prior to its full tenure. Before the 19th Amendment was passed in 2015 – a major promise of both President Sirisena and the Prime Minister Wickremesinghe-led UNF – the President, with his unfettered powers and discretion, could dissolve Parliament at any given time if the previous Parliament was allowed to continue its full tenure and whereas it was prematurely dissolved a nominal period of one year after which he could dissolve it again. Currently, Article 70 (1) stipulates that the President may by proclamation, summon, prorogue, and dissolve Parliament, provided that the President shall not dissolve Parliament until the expiration of a period of not less than four years and six months from the date appointed for its first meeting, unless Parliament requests the President to do so by a resolution passed by not less than two-thirds of the whole number of members (including those not present), voting in its favour. As such, in the event the UNP wants the Parliament, it has to join hands with the President-led Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Mahinda Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Meanwhile, during a pre-Cabinet meeting of the UNP MPs, several backbenchers demanded that in the event President Sirisena continues to pose obstacles to the development programme of the UNP, the party should not vote in favour of the expenditure of the President’s allocation during the Budget 2019 vote, as instead of acting like the Head of the Government, President Sirisena was visibly acting as the Leader of the Opposition. Minister’s delay Whilst the Leader of the House, Minister Lakshman Kiriella took a delegation of Buddhist monks, including representatives of the tri denominations and journalists, to see the progress of the Central Expressway – the biggest showcase development project of the Wickremesinghe administration – his Cabinet colleague Minister of Local Government and Provincial Councils Vajira Abeywardene was in hot water over his delay of delivering the status of the provincial council elections. When the Cabinet of Ministers convened under Sirisena’s patronage last Tuesday, the President had inquired from Minister Abeywardene as to the progress of his request to hold provincial council polls under the old proportional representation (PR) system before 31 May. Although the Cabinet gave the green light for the latter’s request to give him two weeks to consider the proposal and submit observations, last week too, Abeywardene failed to accede to the President’s request, stating that he needed an additional week to submit his observations. In addition, the Minister had several concerns over technical matters including the approval of Parliament being obtained in the event the provincial council polls were held under the previous PR system, which President Sirisena had agreed sans the 51-days illegal coup usurper government, and not under the newly-introduced mixed electoral system. The Minister had also pointed out that letters of consent must be obtained from the chief ministers of the provincial councils that have not completed their full five-year terms in the event the provincial council polls were held on one day. President Sirisena replying to this had noted that a special Party Leaders’ Meeting be arranged with the consent of the Speaker Karu Jayasuriya in order to iron out these issues. President Sirisena admonishing Abeywardene’s delay said he would not extend the additional one week extended period afforded to the Minister, adding that he should also liaise with the Speaker of Parliament and ensure that the party leaders’ meeting over PC polls be held within a period of two weeks. Tab tug-o-war The UNF Government, in the run up to the 2015 general elections, gave a pledge to voters that it would ensure tabs for all schools and university students. In addition, Education Minister Akila Viraj Kariyawasam presented a Memorandum of Cabinet which proposed that tabs be issued to all students free of charge. However, President Sirisena objected to the move, stating that this would create more problems than solutions. Last week saw Minister Kariyawasam presenting his paper again to which President Sirisena inquired as to how many schools lacked desks and chairs let alone tabs. Ultimately, the Cabinet approved the initiative to be implemented as a pilot project as recommended by the committee set up to give its recommendations over the tab saga. A proposal to set up a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was also presented to Cabinet by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe which recommended uncovering the truth behind the three-decade conflict that left close to a 100,000 dead. The Premier expressed that the TRC was likely to be modelled on the TRC of South Africa. The TRC, which was a foremost initiative of Nobel laureate and South Africa’s first-ever black President Nelson Mandela, was a quazi-judiciary (court-like) restorative justice body assembled in South Africa after the end of Apartheid. Witnesses who were identified as victims of gross human rights violations mostly perpetrated by the White Apartheid rule were invited to express their experiences, of which some were selected for public hearings On the other hand, perpetrators of violence could also give testimony and request amnesty from both civil and criminal prosecution and seek pardon from the victims after a public apology in which they truly and genuinely repented for their crimes. The South African TRC, the first of the 1,003 held internationally to stage public hearings, was seen by many peace-lovers as a crucial component of the country’s transition to full and free democracy despite decades of white supremacism and several drawbacks and flaws. The President too said he would be providing his observations as the Minister of Defence and as such the cabinet paper was deferred by a period of one week. Several other ministers including Minister Champika Ranawaka too announced that they too would be presenting their own observations. The Rajapaksa way With several UNP stalwarts announcing that none other than Party Leader Premier Wickremesinghe would be contesting at any forthcoming presidential election, splits in the SLPP are bringing to show with many coming out with various statements. Many SLPP stalwarts noted that there was no doubt that a Rajapaksa would be fielded from the SLPP at the forthcoming presidential election, insisting that there was absolutely no division of opinion over it. One of the vociferous defenders of Rajapaksa and a close confidant of MP Namal Rajapaksa, Polonnaruwa District MP Roshan Ranasinghe, made the following statement: “The Rajapaksa family is a prime example of unity, not only to the country but also to the world. I would like to reiterate that there are no factions within the SLPP. There is no Gota faction, Chamal faction or Basil faction. We have only one faction or party – the SLPP led by Mahinda Rajapaksa. The Rajapaksas are all-rounders. There is no doubt that the next president is the Rajapaksa candidate fielded from SLPP, who will win for sure.” SLPP Colombo District strongman and Pivithuru Hela Urumaya Leader Udaya Gammanpila made a public comment last week that although the party is yet to decide on its presidential candidate it would definitely be a Rajapaksa and under the SLPP symbol of the “pohottuwa”. He added that under no circumstances would the majority of the SLPP agree to support a candidate from SLFP, hinting that the party would not support the candidacy of incumbent President Sirisena. In addition, Gammanpila stated that the candidate of their choice was former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, it is learnt that in the run up to the 51-day illegal coup, Mahinda Rajapaksa had made representations to President Sirisena that the party was willing to support Sirisena’s candidacy. Meanwhile, SLPP presidential hopeful Gotabaya opened an office for his brainchild – the Eliya movement – in Kirulapona last Wednesday in order to better support the growing audience. Elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa and a host of other SLPP loyalists including Prof. G. L. Peiris, Basil Rajapaksa, Dallas Alahapperuma, Wimal Weerawansa, and Mahindananda Aluthgamage were present at the occasion. It is learnt that one SLPP strongman had stated that although many office were being opened, no tangible work had yet been done. On the other hand, Basil too had upped his game in a move which led many to ask as to whether he too was eyeing the hot seat. The SLPP head office at Nelum Mawatha, Battaramulla was virtually being run as a campaign office for Basil in the last few months. Last Monday, during a meeting of the representatives of Gampaha, a resolution was passed, stating that the SLPP should only support a candidate from its party who should only be fielded under the flower bud symbol. “Do not worry unnecessarily. I too have a wish to contest under the flower bud. We cannot let anyone destroy the party which took tremendous effort to build. Therefore, remember that the next president to be elected would definitely be from the SLPP,” reiterated Basil. More contenders Meanwhile, although many in the UNP have iterated that none other than the Party Leader, who for a nearly a quarter of a century managed to keep the UNP boat sailing, would be its presidential candidate, it is no secret that many different factions and groups are supporting the candidacy of Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, Champika Ranawaka, and Dr. Rajitha Senaratne. Leader of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and Minister of Megapolis and Western Province Development Champika Ranawaka, who is currently on a drive to enhance his visibility and popularity, had a meeting with a delegation of foreign diplomats and plenipotentiaries, including those from the United Kingdom, Japan, South Africa, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland, and the Scandinavian countries at the Waters’ Edge. During this meeting, Ranawaka has briefed the diplomatic community of the progress of projects implemented under the auspices of the Megapolis Ministry and enlightened them about numerous investment opportunities available. However, with the goodwill of the Government of Japan, this staggering amount of funding is made available at a magnanimous and highly concessionary rate of 1% interest with reportedly a 40-year payback period. In addition, the Minister was hell bent on accelerating the Colombo Light Railway (LRT) project implemented with Japanese funding and which is said to cost roughly over $ 3 billion or approximately Rs. 520 billion. JVP’s NIO Meanwhile, the third force in local politics, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which planning to overhaul Sri Lankan politics, has been considering the possibility of pushing a grand broad-based alliance of professionals and intellectuals to face a possible presidential poll. Learning from its past mistakes, especially at the 2015 general election, where it expected to muster around 15 seats but ended up with a dismal six, the party is to hold its inaugural National Intellectual Organisation (NIO) convention this Tuesday (19) at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium. Meanwhile, despite the opposition of Ranwaka, who was one-time dynamic Power and Energy Minister during the Rajapaksa regime, the Cabinet of Ministers is said to have awarded approval for the construction of a 350 Mega Watt Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant at Kerawalapitiya to a Chinese company overlooking a Sri Lankan-based Lakdanavi which had submitted the lowest bid. However, with incumbent Power and Energy Minister Ravi Karunanayake insisting that unless this was green lighted the country would have to face blackouts, the Cabinet decided to proceed with Karunanayake’s proposal. “The study of the forces that shape, maintain, and alter the State is the basis of all political insight and leads to the understanding that the law of power governs the world of states, just as the law of gravity governs the physical world. The older political science was fully aware of this truth but drew a wrong and detrimental conclusion – the right of the more powerful. The modern era has corrected this unethical fallacy, but while breaking with the alleged right of the more powerful one, the modern era was too much inclined to overlook the real might of the more powerful and the inevitability of its political influence,” opines Ludwig von Rochau. Will Wickremesinghe comprehend the real gravity of following textbook theories in a Third World country as ours? Only time will tell!