The 2019 presidential election is slowly warming up with two of potentially three candidates having been unveiled in the past couple of weeks. While the United National Party (UNP) continues to debate who is best suited to win the upcoming election, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) have both announced their candidates in the forms of Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, respectively. Whilst Rajapaksa is considered a frontrunner at this early stage of the election season, the arrival of Dissanayake on the stage has certainly thrown up a few unexpected hurdles the former Defence Secretary will have to overcome. The announcement of Dissanayake as the JVP-led alliance’s candidate was done in grand fashion with an estimated 100,000 supporters packed onto Galle Face Green to welcome their contender. In contrast, the revealing of Rajapaksa as the SLPP candidate was done in the more subdued environment of the Sugathadasa Stadium, where it was restricted as an invite-only event of the party’s inaugural national convention. The announcement of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as their candidate was done alongside the official assumption of the leadership of the SLPP by Mahinda Rajapaksa. Signs of a power struggle existing between the two Rajapaksa brothers first emerged with months of speculation surrounding Gotabaya’s candidacy. While a large section of the SLPP seemed in favour of the younger Rajapaksa being put forward as its candidate, there was much delay on the part of their de facto leader in providing his blessings. In fact, the lead up to their national convention was dominated by SLPP politicos advertising in the media the fact that former President Rajapaksa would be officially assuming the leadership of their new political party. Despite speculations surrounding Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s candidacy, it was only at the event that he was publicly endorsed as their candidate. Organisers of the SLPP event seemed determined to remind all those in attendance that the main focus of the event was the assumption of the leadership by Rajapaksa. Seated in the front row, flanked on both sides by his wife Shiranthi Rajapaksa and SLPP Chairman Prof. G.L. Peiris, the former President was provided with a seat larger than the others in the hall. Only at the time of announcing their candidate did Gotabaya Rajapaksa arrive at the hall, remaining backstage until that point. Prior to his younger brother’s arrival, Rajapaksa accepted the leadership of the SLPP and proceeded to make a speech which lasted well over 30 minutes, during which he took the opportunity to remind the audience of his contributions and successes as President. His grand entrance Once the younger Rajapaksa was allowed to make an appearance, he did so escorted only by security, and was forced to share the stage with his elder brother, as though to remind all those watching that this was a joint ticket. In fact, several weeks prior to the SLPP’s convention, even before Rajapaksa officially assumed duties as Leader of the SLPP, he had told a leading Tamil newspaper that he would be his party’s prime ministerial candidate, while reminding readers that the Prime Minister would be more powerful than the President under the 19th Amendment. As though to further highlight this point, last week, MP Namal Rajapaksa, in a series of tweets discussing the development of sports in the country, clearly indicated that “the @PresRajapaksa (Mahinda Rajapaksa)-led Gov (sic) under @GotabayaR’s (Gotabaya Rajapaksa) presidency will…” – a clear indication that while his uncle would be the President, the Government and its decision making would be led by his father. Political circles have been rife with rumours over a growing rift between the former First Family and Gotabaya Rajapaksa, with the suggestion that Shiranthi Rajapaksa was displeased that her eldest son’s political aspirations may be forced on the back foot with the arrival of her brother-in-law on the political stage. With the 19th Amendment having increased the age limit for a presidential candidate to 35, effectively ruling out any possibility of Namal contesting this time around, the belief was that whoever Rajapaksa nominated as the presidential candidate would be a caretaker until his son was old enough to contest. Gotabaya Rajapaksa first arrived on the scene in July 2005 to assist his brother in his presidential campaign. Following their victory at the presidential election, Gotabaya was sworn in as Defence Secretary in November 2005. Since then, up until 8 January 2015, Gotabaya diligently served his brother as the all-powerful Defence Secretary who oversaw tasks ranging from the conduct of the civil war, enforcing the “law”, and beautifying Colombo. With the failure of his brother to secure an unprecedented third term in office, Gotabaya sunk into the background, forced to focus on several criminal cases which had been filed against him. As Rajapaksa is no longer eligible to contest for the presidency, following the introduction of the 19th Amendment, attention turned to who would contest from their side. With no clear contender in sight, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, with the support of former military officers and businessmen, began his campaign to secure the nomination. His own power nucleus The introduction of Viyathmaga, an organisation which describes itself as “a network of academics, professionals, and entrepreneurs”, was his first official introduction onto the political stage. Choosing to distance himself from the established politicos of the SLPP/SLFP, Rajapaksa seems determined to form a power nucleus that would be his own creation, free from the interference of the rest of the political establishment. However, with the absence of a political powerhouse capable of dispersing his message to the grassroots of the country, Gotabaya has recognised that his own creation will have to co-exist with his brother’s political circles if he is to be successful. How much of a compromise Gotabaya is willing to make remains to be seen. With Rajapaksa having spent over a decade being surrounded by a cult-like following, the idea that he would have to share power with his brother will certainly be a tough pill to swallow. In turn, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has shown himself as being no stranger to ambition, would also be forced to share centre stage not only with his elder brother but his brother’s family. Having spent the better part of a decade in his brother’s shadow, it seems unlikely he would be willing to repeat the dose. As the country gears up for a closely contested presidential election, the idea that a Rajapaksa presidency will see the end to political instability seems nothing more than a pipe dream. Backed by strong-arm tactics and a desire to ensure a lasting family legacy, a dual Rajapaksa leadership will see Sri Lanka placed in the middle of a family’s internal power struggle.