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Prepping for the Worst Case

29 Apr 2021

With each passing day, Sri Lanka’s neighbour with over one sixth of the world population – India – is plunging deeper and deeper into the Covid-19 pandemic, and many fear that the country’s situation is already in an unmanageable state. As of early this week, India had recorded over 17 million Covid-19 cases and over 200,000 deaths, and they keep increasing. However, India’s Covid-19 situation attracted international attention not only because of the rapidly increasing cases and deaths; the country not having adequate facilities including hospital facilities and oxygen to treat Covid-19 patients, which in turn causes more deaths, was also a cause for concern. Even though Sri Lankan health authorities have expressed confidence that the country’s situation is still under control despite the rapid increase in Covid-19 cases following the Sinhala and Tamil New Year celebration, India’s situation is a reminder that Sri Lanka too needs to be prepared to face the Covid-19 situation in the coming few months before it is too late. As Covid-19 cases rose, Sri Lanka reported an increase in the number of admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and some including medical professionals’ groups such as the Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) stressed that steps should be taken to increase the number of beds in ICUs, expand the capacity of facilities where Covid-19 infected persons are treated and ensure that the country has adequate oxygen stocks. There is only one way Sri Lanka, or any country for that matter, would find itself in India’s situation. That is, when a country exhausts resources to effectively manage the number of cases and the spread of Covid-19. In Sri Lanka’s case, even though the spread of Covid-19 seems to have gotten out of hand, the country is still in possession of adequate resources to manage the situation. In this context, it is very important that Sri Lanka comes to terms with one uncomfortable truth, i.e. due to the evolving nature of Covid-19, any country has more control over ensuring the availability of adequate resources to manage the Covid-19 situation than controlling the spread of Covid-19 among the people. Therefore, it is equally important to use the available resources sparingly while planning in advance to procure before a shortage arises. The increasing daily cases are also a reminder that vaccination does not guarantee a low number of Covid-19 cases. In fact, many countries in the world have reported people contracting Covid-19 after being vaccinated. Also, Sri Lanka should not forget that Covid-19 is a global threat, and that almost every country is grappling to contain the pandemic. When competition and demand for products and services intensifies, it may lead to a scarcity of any resource that is available currently, especially those that need to be imported such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test machines, rapid antigen test (RAT) kits, and vaccines. Therefore, currently not facing a shortage of resources does not mean that it is unlikely to happen in the future. As a matter of fact, it is one of the reasons why India is in a state of distress despite being one of the largest manufacturers of anti Covid-19 vaccines. With the increasing number of daily cases, which reached a staggering number of 1,111 on 27 April, it is difficult to predict for how long Sri Lanka will not face a shortage of resources. But, that is also a matter that should receive priority. Countries should not be complacent, because when it comes to Covid-19, it is impossible to project how it would evolve. And, when it is difficult to avert an issue, the best solution is to be prepared to face it, in its worst form.  


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