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Q1 GDP data could be delayed: DCS

13 Jun 2021

  • Initially planned for release by 15 June

By The Sunday Morning Business Desk    The release of GDP data for the first quarter (Q1) of 2021, which should ideally be on or before 15 June according to regulations set in this regard, might face delays this time due to the prevailing situation in the country, The Sunday Morning Business learns. Speaking to us, Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) Additional Director General of Statistics K. M. D. S. D. Karunaratne stated that even though the date to release the data is on Tuesday (15), it could be delayed due to the prevailing Covid-19 situation in the country.  “It could be delayed because of Covid-19, as we are still collecting data, and are also in the process of getting certain information finalised. We are hopeful for it to be released,” Karunaratne said. However, DCS was able to release the 2020 final quarter GDP results on 16 March.  The quarterly GDP estimates are released within 75 days from the quarter’s end. For example, second-quarter GDP results are generally released before 15 September, and fourth-quarter results are usually issued before 15 March the following year.  The DCS significantly delayed the issuance of quarterly GDP rates for the first three quarters in 2020, citing pandemic-driven delays in conducting the required surveys. Even the first-quarter GDP estimates were delayed considerably, as it was issued only hours before the General Election in August. It showed that the economy had contracted by 1.6%. As the data was released following a highly unusual delay, it led to intense speculation as to the reasons for the said delay. Many opined that data was being held back intentionally till the end of the election, which was on 5 August, so as to prevent any political disadvantage. However, both the DCS and the Central Bank denied this allegation in August and attributed the delay purely to the pandemic. In mid-October last year, issuing a press statement, the DCS had said that second-quarter GDP data would be released on 15 December, along with GDP data of the third quarter of 2020. The reason provided for the delay was the seven-week-long curfew imposed through half of the second quarter, which resulted in some economic activities taking place in ways that were different to the norm. Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) MP Dr. Harsha de Silva, in a tweet on 17 October 2020, had charged that this was the first time since quarterly publishing where Sri Lanka’s GDP figures have not been published by a government; he termed it a “disgrace”. In its mid-October press release, the DCS had also said that international consultants were required to achieve accurate data. In a second tweet in response to the press release issued by the DCS, Dr. de Silva had stated: “Come on DG! You cannot give such lame excuses that you need a foreign consultant to calculate GDP. India, Thailand, Vietnam, and so many others have already published 2020 2Q. You have now completely lost your credibility.” Responding to Dr. de Silva’s tweet, then-DCS Director-General, Dr. I.R. Bandara, at that point, had told us that it is not necessary for Sri Lanka to seek international consultation, and that the consultations so far have been merely for knowledge-sharing purposes. In terms of Dr. de Silva’s latter claim that India, Thailand, and Vietnam had released their GDP estimates, she had noted that these countries have a statistical business registry where businesses are registered. “With the statistical business registry, it is easy to capture GDP data. We have already prepared a Cabinet paper to set up a similar registry in Sri Lanka. We are working on it,” Bandara had added. Dr. de Silva had also stated that internal sources had informed him that the GDP contraction for the second quarter was a shocking -17%. As he noted, second-quarter GDP shrunk by 16.3%, while it grew by 1.5% in the third quarter of last year. 

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