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Q420 GDP data on schedule

14 Feb 2021

  • No repetition of previous quarter delays, assures DCS

  With a month left for the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) to issue its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rates as per the usual procedure for the quarter ended on 30 December 2020, it confirmed that the statistics for the quarter will be issued on time, unlike in the previous three quarters.  DCS Additional Director General P.M.P. Anura Kumara told The Sunday Morning Business that the quarterly surveys are being done at the moment, the results of which are expected to be received by 15 March.  “Ideally, we should release the statistics for the quarter by 15 March, but this time we will be releasing on 16 March after getting the quarterly survey results. We are working day and night and having discussions with the relevant authorities often,” Anura Kumara noted.   The DCS significantly delayed the issuance of quarterly GDP rates for the first three quarters in 2020 citing pandemic-driven delays in conducting the required surveys. Even the first-quarter GDP estimates were delayed considerably, as it was issued only hours before the general election in August. It showed that the economy had contracted by 1.6%. As the data was released following a highly unusual delay, it led to intense speculation as to the reasons for the said delay. Many opined that data was being held back intentionally till the end of the election, which was on 5 August, so as to prevent any political disadvantage. However, both the DCS and the Central Bank denied this allegation in August and attributed the delay purely to the pandemic. In mid-October last year, issuing a press statement, the DCS said that second-quarter GDP data will be released on 15 December, along with GDP data of the third quarter of 2020. The reason provided for the delay was the seven-week-long curfew imposed through half of the second quarter, which resulted in some economic activities taking place in ways that were different to the norm. In any other year, the quarterly GDP estimates are released within 75 days from the quarter’s end. For example, second-quarter GDP results are generally released before 15 September and fourth-quarter results are usually issued before 15 March the following year.  Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) MP Dr. Harsha de Silva, in a tweet on 17 October 2020, charged that this is the first time since quarterly publishing where Sri Lanka’s GDP figures have not been published by a government; he termed it a “disgrace”. In its mid-October press release, the DCS also said that international consultants are required to achieve accurate data. In a second tweet in response to the press release issued by the DCS, Dr. de Silva stated: “Come on DG! You cannot give such lame excuses that you need a foreign consultant to calculate GDP. India, Thailand, Vietnam, and so many others have already published 2020 2Q. You have now completely lost your credibility.” Responding to Dr. de Silva’s tweet, then Director General of the DCS, Dr. I.R. Bandara, at that point, told us that it is not necessary for Sri Lanka to seek international consultation and that the consultations so far have been merely for knowledge-sharing purposes. In terms of Dr. de Silva’s latter claim that India, Thailand, and Vietnam had released their GDP estimates, she noted that these countries have a statistical business registry where businesses are registered. “With the statistical business registry, it is easy to capture GDP data. We have already prepared a cabinet paper to set up a similar registry in Sri Lanka. We are working on it,” Bandara had added. Dr. de Silva also stated that internal sources had informed him that the GDP contraction for the second quarter is a shocking -17%. As he noted, second-quarter GDP shrunk by 16.3% while it grew by 1.5% in the third quarter of last year.  Meanwhile, In January this year, the Central Bank downgraded the growth forecast for the year 2020 to a negative 3.9% from its earlier projected contraction of 1.7%.


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