The potpourri of political events that took place last week ended once again without any solution being reached on resolving the current political stalemate. President Maithripala Sirisena cut an image of a man who is either very resilient or someone with an attitude of whistling past the graveyard given his approach to the events that unfolded during the week. Sirisena’s discussion with members of the foreign press corps and its outcome created quite a stir early last week, especially after the comment that he would set up a presidential commission to probe the misdoings of the Government between January, 2015 till 26 October, 2018. Hearing the statement, United National Front (UNF) MP Mangala Samaraweera noted that Article 42 of the Constitution says that the Cabinet must be headed by the President and is governed by collective responsibility. “For the first time, a President is appointing a commission to look into his corruption. Well done @MaithripalaS. You are making history again,” Samaraweera tweeted. However, as the week progressed, the UNF, Tamil National Alliance (TNA), and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) combined, continued to show its parliamentary majority further fuelling the public perception that the Opposition in Parliament held the House majority while the President-appointed United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) Government did not possess the required numbers. The UPFA continued to boycott three parliamentary sessions last week while the UNF, TNA, and JVP continued to hold numbers and show its majority in the House by passing two motions to prevent the Prime Minister’s secretary and ministry secretaries from utilising funds allocated for government functions. Be that as it may, following last Friday night’s discussions that were held between the President and the TNA and UNF, a solution to the current political impasse is now anticipated this Wednesday (5). Parliament was handed a motion last week by the UNF calling on the President to act on the stance of a majority in Parliament that President-appointed Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and his Government did not have the numbers to govern the country. The motion is in the Parliament Order Book and is to be taken up for a vote on 5 December. This is in line with the outcome of last Friday night’s meetings, where the President assured action on a No-confidence Motion against the Prime Minister and Government, if done in line with parliamentary standing orders. However, last week was full of action on all fronts of the country’s political spectrum. SLFP CC The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Central Committee met last Monday at 6 p.m. The meeting took place in the backdrop of a group of senior party organisers holding an impromptu meeting at the Public Library the previous day (Sunday) to demand stern action from the party leadership in the face of the current political crisis. Close to around 60 organisers met at the Public Library and resolved to demand the party leadership to suspend some of the amendments proposed to the SLFP constitution at the last all-island executive committee meeting and to take measures to expel the party members who have taken memberships from other political parties. The growing dissent within the SLFP party cadre over Rajapaksa’s decision to break away from the SLFP and take membership of another party, and the failure of the SLFP leadership to take a firm stand on the move was evident at Sunday’s meeting. SLFP Leader Sirisena by then, had started a separate move to determine who had organised the Sunday meeting and how. Sirisena’s first suspicion was that the organisers had been riled up by former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. He felt that the issuing of a statement by Kumaratunga in the aftermath of the exodus of SLFP members to the SLPP, pledging her allegiance to the SLFP along with her willingness to help revitalise the party, was a sign of the former President taking over the reins of the SLFP. It was also widely speculated that Kumaratunga may actually attend the meeting of the organisers. However, she did not attend it and none of the SLFP MPs participated in the meeting. Nevertheless, the goings on at the meeting were closely monitored by the President, the SLFP MPs, as well as the senior members of the SLPP. It was evident that the resolution adopted at the meeting, by all those gathered, to send a letter outlining their concerns to the party leadership and the secretary, would remind Sirisena of his role before the party and put pressure on him to act accordingly. Later on, SLFP General Secretary Rohana Lakshman Piyadasa was quoted telling the media that the party would not accept the decisions reached at the Sunday meeting. Yet, he, as well as the party leadership, was well aware that failure to act would result in Sirisena losing his half-built legitimacy as SLFP Leader. Convention All this was taken into consideration when the SLFP Central Committee met on Monday. Several senior SLFPers including the likes of Reginald Cooray made representations at the meeting. Every one of them aired similar sentiments about the ongoing political crisis and its impact on the SLFP. All of them expressed their displeasure over the SLFP’s leadership not taking a firm stance and revitalising the party, while the SLPP continued to poach SLFPers to their ranks. The President was visibly agitated at the meeting. However, he too realised that the SLFP needed to decide its future course of action. Sirisena then asked the Central Committee to decide whether the SLFP should join an alliance with the SLPP, contest separately, or find a different alternative to contest at an election. Accordingly, it was decided to convene a special convention of the SLFP to reach a final decision. The date decided was 4 December (Tuesday) and the venue is the Sugathadasa Stadium. MP Thilanga Sumathipala immediately showed signs of wanting to play the key role in organising the event and its agenda. It was Sumathipala who convinced the President to assign him the party campaign for the last local government elections on 10 February where the SLFP put on a very poor show. However, following recommendations from electoral organisers, it was decided that organising the event would be handled by SLFP National Organiser Duminda Dissanayake. The Central Committee appointed a committee to organise the event. Each electoral organiser was asked to limit the number of party representatives attending the convention to 50. The organisers are expecting around 7,000 SLFP members to attend the special convention. Interestingly, the theme of the convention is – “decision for the sake of the country.” The SLFP membership believes that the convention would be a decisive one where the party would set its future path. The President is expected to make a statement that would provide answers to the party’s future as well as overcoming the current political crisis. MS and SLFP MPs After deciding on getting the SLFP back on track, it was then time for Sirisena to face the group of SLFP MPs who supported him in the Yahapalana Government and remained even after the defection of 15 other SLFP MPs to the “Joint Opposition” at the time. Last Tuesday evening, he met with the SLFP MPs in Parliament without the 15 who defected to the “JO”. The meeting turned out to be a decisive one that started to change the course of direction of the ongoing political crisis. The SLFP group explained to the President that it was difficult to continue in the Government when it was evident that the UPFA did not command the majority in Parliament. They said that the UNF, JVP, and TNA would continue to dominate parliamentary proceedings in the absence of the UPFA while also carrying out votes and further exposing the fact that the UPFA Government did not have the majority in the House. They explained to the President that the growing public perception would have a detrimental impact come election time and especially on Sirisena if he has any desire of contesting at the next presidential election. After hearing the concerns raised by the group of SLFPers, the President reiterated that he did not at any point promise the Rajapaksa group that he would help them secure a majority in Parliament. Sirisena said that he gave them a period of over one month to build a majority in the House, but they failed. The SLFP group then asked Sirisena to inform the SLPP MPs of the situation and have an open discussion about the matter as there was no other way out of the mess. The President, after agreeing, asked the group to explain the situation to Rajapaksa and ask him for how long he planned to govern without a parliamentary majority. However, SLPP theoretician, Basil Rajapaksa is firm in his stance that he was not keen on the political marriage with Sirisena and it was forced on the SLPP group by none other than Sirisena. According to Basil, the SLPP’s political path is to push for an early general election to secure a fresh mandate given the increasing popularity of the SLPP at the time. However, the marriage between the SLPP and Sirisena that resulted in a political and social backlash has taken its toll on the SLPP. The moderate middle class in the country, which started to consider SLPP as an option at an election, fast turned away following the events that unfolded since 26 October. Therefore, Basil is also pushing for an early resolution of the existing crisis and a call for elections. This was in fact discussed between Mahinda Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe when they met briefly in Parliament on Friday. During the Friday meeting between Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe in the parliament library, Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe both agreed that the political crisis needed to be resolved fast. Wickremesinghe pointed out that it was the country that was being dealt a blow by the crisis. Rajapaksa agreed and said that the issue could be resolved by holding an early general election. Wickremesinghe responded by saying that he too agreed that an election was inevitable, but added that there were certain measures to be taken before holding elections. He observed that elections could be held after restoring democracy and that he was prepared. Operation in motion Be that as it may, it was indeed interesting to see the group of SLFP MPs being handed the daunting task by the President of speaking to Rajapaksa about the lack of numbers and giving up claim to the government. It is interesting because none of the SLFP MPs who met the President on Tuesday evening were part of the 26 October change. The President, after opting to form a new government with the support of MPs Sumathipala, Dilan Perera, S.B. Dissanayake, and Lakshman Wasantha Perera, has now resorted to the group of 20 SLFP MPs in the House to resolve the current crisis. After the meeting with the President on Tuesday evening, the group held a separate meeting to discuss Sirisena’s request and decided how to break the news to Rajapaksa. They too were unable to comprehend how to break it to Rajapaksa, since they knew very well that at no point had the former President requested to be appointed Prime Minister. Finally, a request was made from SLFP General Secretary Piyadasa to request an appointment to meet Rajapaksa. Accordingly, an appointment was set for the following day – Wednesday at 11 a.m. The meeting with Rajapaksa was attended by 15 out of the 20 SLFP MPs. SLFP seniors Nimal Siripala de Silva and Sarath Amunugama among others participated in the meeting. De Silva explained to Rajapaksa the situation and explained that it was now vital to make a decision on how to move forward. He said the Government could no longer function without a parliamentary majority and the passage of motions barring the utilisation of official funds for the ministries would create confusion in the public sector regardless of claims by the President’s Government that they are illegal. Rajapaksa, after listening to what the SLFP MPs had to say, responded by saying that he believed he would be able to secure the numbers after the 7th. However, he added that if the President wants to change the status quo, he could do so. Therefore, the meeting ended without reaching any final conclusion. Rajapaksa that evening made his way to Anuradhapura for religious observances. After reaching the sacred city by helicopter, Rajapaksa attended religious rituals at the Ruwanweliseya and returned to Colombo the following morning after worshiping the Jaya Sri Maha Bodhi. On Thursday (28), the group of 20 SLFPers met and discussed a way out of the impasse. Realising that the President had washed his hands of the issue, they decided to speak to several party leaders of the SLPP. Discussions were then initiated with Dinesh Gunawardena, Wimal Weerawansa, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, etc. The group discussed with Gunawardena, Weerawansa, and Nanayakkara the difficulties in carrying on a government without a majority. They have discussed that the Vote on Account that was approved by the President’s Cabinet of Ministers would not be passed in Parliament without a majority in the House. The discussions ended with the mutual understanding that it was difficult to move on without the numbers. Nevertheless, Gunawardena, Weerawansa, and Nanayakkara said that they would not move out without a fight. However, by Thursday evening, hopes of a way out of the current political impasse started to appear, following the meeting between the President and Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. The President agreed to meet the TNA and UNF on Friday evening. After the meeting with Jayasuriya, the President made his way to the Kandalama Hotel on his way to open the Moragahakanda reservoir sluice gates the following morning. After arriving at the hotel, Sirisena requested for a torch from the hotel since it was nightfall and made his way to the boundary of the Kandalama Tank and sat their alone. He had asked not to be disturbed for a while. After returning to his entourage, Sirisena had not shared his thoughts. The last straw Once Friday dawned, political circles were busy trying to figure what would unfold that day – especially after the meetings between the President and the TNA and UNF. The meeting with the TNA was scheduled for 6 p.m. and UNF at 7 p.m. However, the times kept shifting due to delays at several events the President had to attend in the evening. The TNA meeting finally kicked off at 7.30 p.m. and the UNF meeting at 8.30 p.m. During the meeting with the TNA, the President asked them to get another No-confidence Motion passed in the House against the Prime Minister according to parliamentary standing orders. The President asked the TNA to get the motion passed in Parliament on Wednesday (5), the day after the special convention of the SLFP. During the meeting, Sirisena expressed his willingness to cancel the gazette calling for the dissolution of Parliament and work towards resolving the political impasse. He hinted that he would look into the matter and decide around Tuesday (4). Hence, he has reiterated the need for the passage of another No-confidence Motion. TNA MP M.A. Sumanthiran pointed out that there was already a motion in the Order Book that was presented by the UNF early last week and that it could be taken up for a debate and vote on the 5th. The President said he was agreeable to it and that he would take the necessary steps afterwards. However, he once again insisted that he would not appoint Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister. TNA MP Sampanthan explained that the decision on the Prime Ministerial candidate was with the UNF. The meeting with the UNF commenced afterwards and the President told the UNF about the motion to be passed on the 5th in the House. Sirisena assured that he would take the necessary steps according to the outcome of the vote, but insisted that the UNF had to decide on an individual other than Wickremesinghe for the post of Prime Minister. Spotlight on SL The outcome of the vote in Parliament on Wednesday (5), as well as the Supreme Court determination on 7 December, with regard to the petitions filed challenging the President’s move to dissolve Parliament last month, will be closely monitored by the international community. This would also include the United Nations (UN). Top UN official from New York, Director Asia-Pacific Division Department of Political Affairs Mari Yamashita arrived in Sri Lanka last week. The main purpose of the visit was to ascertain first-hand, the ground situation in Sri Lanka amidst the ongoing political crisis. The official – who is of Japanese origin – held discussions with President Sirisena, representatives of the UNF, as well as the TNA. The outcome of Yamashita’s visit would determine the level of the UN’s role in resolving the current issue in Sri Lanka. It would also be the deciding factor on whether UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres would visit Sri Lanka.