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Recovery: What's the plan?

17 May 2020

Covid-19 could far outweigh its health impact. We cautioned the Government to brace for it, and the tough times ahead. Those tough times are now upon us and if as a country we fail to get our act together quickly, then the ride ahead could be a long and uncomfortable one. The Government, for its part, should not envisage formulating a recovery plan on its own. It is too big a job to be left in the hands of the Finance Ministry, Treasury, Central Bank, or for that matter the Cabinet; it is an effort that requires the collective contribution of all stakeholders, which include political parties, business chambers, corporate bosses, academia, and people representing every strata of society. At the end of the day, not only do people have a right to know what’s being planned, they also have a right to be heard when formulating those plans. Having succeeded in containing the spread of the virus to a great extent, the focus will now have to shift to keeping the virus away from our shores while resuming normal life by removing the restrictions in place. The most badly affected sectors of the economy such as the export and tourism sectors should receive special attention of the Government so that they have the necessary wherewithal to weather the storm and stay viable until things turn around. It is only a matter of time before consumption picks up and markets open up for exports to increase. However, tourism is an altogether different story considering the fact that the entire industry here in Sri Lanka is still very much a work in progress. Tourism, which has been a key driver of the economy in the recent past with an estimated two million dependents, will have to be managed carefully so as to ensure equitable use of capacity. An initial assessment by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) published last week, predicts a staggering 80% decline in travel this year while stating that it would take up to two full years just to reach pre-Covid- 19 levels. That being the case, survival of this once booming industry will require out-of-the-box thinking. Some countries have already got the ball rolling. For instance, New Zealand and neighbour Australia, both countries having done a commendable job in containing the virus, have announced the creation of a travel corridor between the two nations offering a lifeline to the tourism sector in each country. This trend has caught on with countries in Asia like Thailand and Vietnam as well as countries in Europe that have not been badly affected by the pandemic, now looking at similar travel corridors. For Sri Lanka, the only viable option could be an Indian corridor, but with that country facing a raging battle of its own in taming the pandemic, that possibility is out of the equation at least for the moment. Another option being looked at by some other countries is to allocate specific areas for tourists, sort of a large-scale quarantine zone where tourists are whisked in straight from the airport and whisked out the same way, thereby preventing any interaction with local communities outside the specified zones. Meanwhile, China has introduced what is being termed as “immunity passports” – a digital card that indicates the health status of the bearer. This card is required for one to enter a hotel or restaurant. As countries around the world grapple with these same, identical set of problems, the way forward for many has been the digital path which has helped restore basic functions of government as well as the economy without actually moving men and matter. The uptick is that digitalising is no longer an option but an absolute necessity in the post-pandemic context. The last Government, with the aid of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, created a blueprint for digitalising at least the more important branches of government. Although some headway was made in implementation of the programme, completion is still a long way off. A common feature of our local politics is that a project started by one government is rarely carried forward by another. Therefore, the fate of that project could now be hanging in the balance. Migration to digital economies is taking place faster than ever before thanks to Covid-19. Sri Lanka has no choice but to jump on the bandwagon if it does not wish to be left behind in a rapidly changing world. According to data published by an international news broadcaster, in just the first eight weeks since the pandemic began, digital adoption in consumer and business activity has expanded by as much as it had over the last five years put together. This explosive growth has resulted in a tectonic shift in the way business is done, with consumers now getting comfortable on digital platforms, be it obtaining a government service or simply ordering groceries. Banks, insurance companies, supermarkets, retailers, hotels, restaurants, and even the humble corner grocery store have shifted en masse to digital platforms leaving the obsolete government apparatus sticking out like a sore thumb. The global phenomenon is such that even schools are pivoting to online learning and digital classrooms while doctors have begun online consultation. Manufacturers on the other hand are developing plans for automated factories and supply chains. In Sri Lanka, even the simple act of renewing a vehicle revenue licence still requires a physical trip to the relevant provincial office. Although payments for most utilities can be made online, extended services like viewing a bill or making a service request is still out of the question. In a nutshell, while the private sector has digitally evolved overnight, the state sector has been left behind, backward and obsolete. As the famous saying goes, you can only go as fast as the slowest member of your team. With no sign of a vaccine as yet for Covid-19, the world will have to adapt its way of life and learn to live in constant fear of the next pandemic. As a result, even the most hesitant of people will be compelled to move on to digital platforms to get things done. Work from home is no longer a concept but a technology-based reality. Countries that fail to keep up with the evolving digitalisation will find themselves isolated and out of touch with the rest of the world. Therefore, digitalisation of all government services should occupy the top slot in the Government’s recovery plans. If not, Sri Lanka, with its fossilised public sector, could become a victim of circumstances, adding to the misery of the carnage caused by the pandemic. Therefore, a strategic plan to overcome the challenges forced upon us by Covid-19 is very much the need of the hour.


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