brand logo

Riots in Kazakhstan, war in Ukraine, bombs in Pakistan: Where will it be next

09 Mar 2022

When Fidel Castro got too close to the Soviet Union (USSR) in the early 1960s, the Kennedy administration in the US was worried. The US was not at peace until it stopped the USSR installing missiles in Cuba.  The “Bay of Pigs” situation should be studied again by those concerned about the Ukraine situation and the actions of the Putin administration. When the US came into Iraq and Afghanistan, the people of those countries could not request the EU to make them members, as they weren’t bordering the European continent. Hence, the EU didn’t have to worry about imposing sanctions against the US.  Unlike in the Cuban crisis, Russian concerns about Ukraine have unsung sides. Apart from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) coming too close, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended a few years ago, which created a conflict among the public living in the country bordering Russia. That does not mean its invasion is justified. Nevertheless, an analysis of the US’ moves to prevent other super powers rising in the 21st Century may help paint a wider picture.  The US share of major arms exports amounts to approximately 37% of the world market. Its current nemesis, China, is in fifth place, with an approximately 5% share. In 2017, the US offered an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Rather than winning over BRI partners through co-operation, the US seems to be making moves to counter BRI in its usual style. The US got into new deals with Australia to provide Tomahawk long-range missiles that can take out targets 2,500 km away, and knowledge to make nuclear submarines that can launch such ordinance.  No one seems to be worried about the submarine deal threatening the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which will allow any state to develop nuclear submarines and stockpile weapons-grade nuclear material. It raises concerns about the double standard on non-proliferation. Who is violating human rights? Many are talking about Russians violating the human rights of the Ukrainians. Therefore, the US-led NATO imposed sanctions on Russia. Facts indicate that the US has historically actually used much more force than the USSR or Russia, violating the human rights of the global population and resulting in large numbers of civilian casualties.  It is not difficult to understand that abusive use of unilateral sanctions will cause humanitarian crises, and can be seen as the biggest obstacle to the development of the international human rights cause. Sources within the US have claimed that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was a total disaster.  Similar moves, such as in Afghanistan and Vietnam, highlights the US history of ignorance of basic humanitarianism for selfish objectives. Afghan nationals may be punished for falling from the C17 plane above the Kabul airport or getting crushed among the plane’s wheels. Ignoring the safety of Afghan civilians may not be discussed, as the US is of the stand that no military personnel would be punished for the deaths of civilians during withdrawal and drone strikes. The story may have been different if Russian or Chinese military aircraft were taking off with Afghans being crushed under their wheels.  In the 21st Century, the US has launched many global foreign military operations to counter terrorism, and according to analysts within the US, these may have cost the lives of more than 929,000 people, as per the Costs of War Project.  Approximately 174,000 people, including 30,000 civilians, have died, and around 60,000 were injured in Afghanistan, and the resulting instability has made refugees out of one-third of the population. Approximately 3.5 million were displaced and nearly 23 million face extreme hunger (including 3.2 million children under the age of five). Also, when the US ended occupation, it immediately froze billions of US dollars in forex reserves at the Afghan Central Bank. It caused the Afghan economy to collapse and made life worse for its people. When The New York Times once reported that approximately 50,000 US airstrikes in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan were conducted, killing tens of thousands of civilians, not many were interested in the human rights of those living in the said countries. An article published in the Middle East titled “How the United States Destroyed Iraq” states that inadequate food supply, coupled with inflation, has left Iraqis chronically hungry.  The damages to power and water treatment facilities caused by US bombings have increased (by 400%) the numbers suffering from diarrhoeal diseases. The shortages of medicine and medical equipment, which has left Iraq's health system in crisis and made the poor, children, widows, the elderly, and other most vulnerable groups suffer the most, can be discussed in length by those interested.  Across the Atlantic, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez claimed that the US continues to impose embargoes and sanctions even when Cuba was fighting Covid-19. As a result, the Cuban people are suffering from these inhumane acts, according to him. UN experts who visited the US-run Guantanamo Bay prison facility have said that many of the remaining detainees are vulnerable and elderly, and that their physical and mental integrity has been deprived due to physical and psychological torture and other forms of inhumane treatment. Practical socialism The October 1917 Bolshevik revolution created the USSR (which included both Russia and Ukraine), and is said to be the first step towards building the superpower that is the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The establishment of the Communist Party of China in 1921 took place following the footsteps of the Soviet socialist system. Thus, the socialist systems in the USSR and China created superpowers. Socialist politics kicked off in 1935 in Sri Lanka, but so far it has only taken the country backwards.  The USSR helped the infant PRC to stand alone in the 1950s. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan refers to the PRC as an all-weather friend, unlike the US. In the case of Sri Lanka, the PRC has been that, and the USSR and Russia have also been all-weather friends.  By the 1960s, there was friction between the PRC and the USSR. The long territorial border they share was one reason. It made the US come closer to the PRC, not necessarily because the former wished for the latter’s progress, but rather towards the vanishing of the USSR.  Years later, the PRC developed its own nuclear weapons on par with other powers, but due to the far-sighted foreign policy approach based on the above principles, peace prevailed in the region. One could imagine the destruction that could have harmed the mass populations of the two countries if the Chinese leaders catered to the gallery like comedians.  While other powers are involved in sanctions and conflict provocative mechanisms, the PRC is the only power insisting on firm dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict. China’s proposal to Ukraine, to become a bridge to connect the East with the West, should be taken seriously not only by Ukraine, but by all those countries – including Sri Lanka and Pakistan – whose geopolitics are key to world peace at present.  Pakistan has displayed maturity in the equation so far. Sri Lanka was invaded many times by Indian rulers before the Portuguese, Dutch, and the British. Just as eastern Ukraine got the Russian spotlight, Sri Lanka experienced the Indian spotlight on its northern region, which affected the domestic politics of India, taking it to a level that cost the life of its Prime Minister. The rise of China in the East will increase the risk of conflict within BRI partners, such as Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc. Regional powers may be used by bigger powers who feel the same as the Kennedy and Putin administrations in the new world order. None are non-aligned The PRC has extended its support to specialised agencies of the United Nations (UN) to continue operations on humanitarian aid in Ukraine to ensure the safety of civilian life and property. With this move, the PRC has displayed its maturity as a permanent member of the UN Security Council to maintain international peace and security.  While the world is witnessing a reappearance of Cold War behaviour, Switzerland made an unprecedented move to prove former Sri Lankan President J.R. Jayewardene’s stand on being “Non-Aligned”. In 1976, Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike was hosting the leaders of the Non-Aligned movement at the brand new conference hall in Colombo gifted by the PRC. Sri Lankan masses were experiencing shortages of basic food, clothing, etc., due to local and global issues at the time. J.R. was the leader of the Opposition United National Party (UNP), and had reportedly said that only the US and USSR can be non-aligned, and all others had to be aligned with one of them.  The Cold War was underway then, but now the situation is different, with new superpowers such as China, India, and Germany, in the equation. Hence, multilateralism is key, rather than a small-town gangster mentality. The Chinese approach to a conflict-free world with win-win co-operation should be seriously looked at by all who wish prosperity and lasting peace for mankind. Kazakhstan managed to control its riots with Russian support to continue with the long term development that comes with the BRI. When Russia launched its offensive on Ukraine, some were concerned that China would provide military assistance to its superpower neighbour, just as the US and the NATO camp are providing military equipment to Ukraine to fight Russia. China has categorically refused that claim and Russia, being a superpower, will not need any assistance to fight a small state such as Ukraine, as per many analysts.  However, this indicates the Cold War block mentality of the former colonial powers, and their goal of arm sales rather than lasting peace in the world. It is not clear if the US and its small group of friends (which may include Switzerland) are actually interested and concerned about the international humanitarian law and human rights law when they act in such a way to fuel conflicts rather than defuse them. Unbiased analysts believe that the responsibility of the international community at present should be to help Ukraine to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine which borders Russia.  Once Ukraine is done, the same model might be tried in Nepal, Pakistan, or even Sri Lanka to counter China. Those in the region should start looking at themselves while looking at Ukraine citizens protesting in front of Russian embassies in Colombo and elsewhere. (The writer is a visiting faculty member at universities in Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka, and was an advisory panel member of the National Education Commission of Sri Lanka) ……………. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication.


More News..