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RW turns to funeral diplomacy while Govt. gears up to face vote at UNHRC

02 Oct 2022

  • Moves to recall HSZ Gazette, new security programme to be put in place
  • Prez has unofficial meet with Singaporean Foreign Minister while in transit 
  • RW has 10-minute informal meet with Modi, thanks India for support
  • President expresses regret over poor treatment of longtime ally Japan
  • President’s Office informs US Embassy of possible RW-McCain pvt. meet
  • MR, GR, Basil and Namal discuss SLPP’s political future, gear for LG Polls
  • Election Commission under pressure by Opposition to hold delayed polls
  • SJB says only 10 more MPs for joint Opposition to secure House majority
  • SLFP split at Bandaranaike commemoration, PM attends official event
  The increasing economic challenges that have resulted in protests targeting the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government over hunger and oppression seem to have pushed the President to become innovative in handling the international community, by turning to what looks like funeral diplomacy to build ties. However, the attempt by the Government to strengthen its political legitimacy through the setting up of the National Council with the participation of all political parties in the country became a damp squib last week, with a majority of the political parties in the Opposition, including dissidents of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), refusing to be part of the mechanism. The main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has said it would make a final decision on its participation in the National Council this week, while the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), National People’s Power (NPP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and SLPP dissidents in Opposition have declared they will not participate in the council.  It is interesting that the SJB and SLFP, which proposed the setting up of the National Council, have decided not to be part of it. All these parties have expressed critical views of the actions of the Wickremesinghe Government. Several Opposition members who attended the inaugural meeting of the National Council last week also demanded that the chair of the parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) and chair of the Committee on Public Accounts (COPA) be vested with the Opposition. The Opposition has also expressed displeasure at the alleged oppression of dissent by the Government. Also, the gazette issued declaring High Security Zones (HSZs) in Colombo prior to Wickremesinghe’s visit to Japan caused much controversy in the country, with several cases being filed before court, challenging the legality of the declaration. The legal fraternity pointed out that HSZs could not be declared under the Official Secrets Act.  The wide criticism as well as legal action initiated challenging the declaration of HSZs resulted in President Wickremesinghe calling on the Attorney General to explore the possibilities of recalling the relevant gazette notification. It is learnt that many sources close to the President had advised him of the negative impact the HSZs could have on the economy. The President, it is learnt, had spoken to the Attorney General and a group of lawyers close to him in the midst of the Japanese tour. It is learnt that several legal confidants had asked Wickremesinghe why he had declared HSZs in such a manner. Most were at a loss about how a person of Wickremesinghe’s calibre, with vast legal knowledge, could have made such a blunder. The President had then explained to his confidants that a group of senior Government ministers and several members of the defence establishment had met him prior to his departure to Japan and explained that there were signs of another public uprising, similar to that during former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s tenure. The President has noted that he had been advised by these officials that it was best to declare HSZs to prevent key State institutions from being surrounded by the public once again. It was then revealed that the HSZs had been decided by the Public Security Ministry and not the President’s Office.   Wickremesinghe had then asked the Attorney General and the Inspector General of Police on the remedial action that could be taken to address the issue. The Attorney General had informed the President that the gazette declaring HSZs could not be cancelled without the President’s signature. The President had finally proposed that steps be taken to recall the controversial HSZ Gazette and instead to put in place a new security plan in coordination with the intelligence units to address the current security concerns. This turn of events on the HSZ Gazette had irked a group of members of the Government, who had reminded the President and his staff that issuing gazettes and reversing them would not bode well for the Government as it did for the previous Gotabaya Rajapaksa Government. However, SLPP MP Namal Rajapaksa has defended the actions of the Government to crack down on protesters, saying that governments should only be changed through an election and not by mass agitations. He stated during a meeting in Angunakolapelessa that the country’s democracy would come to an end if the protesters had taken over Parliament and that it was therefore important to list the Parliament as an HSZ. Meanwhile, there are rumours doing the rounds in political circles of attempts by several Opposition parties in Parliament to initiate a mechanism to defeat the Wickremesinghe Government’s 2023 Budget. A discussion on this matter had been held between several Opposition members, including members of the SLPP currently seated in the Opposition. The main Opposition SJB maintains that the joint Opposition in Parliament requires only 10 more MPs to secure the House majority. SJB MP S.M. Marikkar says that the joint Opposition currently holds 103 MPs. However, he has maintained that the SJB is not seeking a parliamentary majority to form a government but to push for an early election.   Mixed messages   Meanwhile, there were mixed messages from the Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on when a final agreement would be reached between Sri Lanka and the Fund. Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe had indicated that the agreement with the IMF could be reached by the end of December while the IMF’s Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer and IMF Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Masahiro Nozaki had last week stated: “It is difficult to predict a timeline as the process of debt relief discussions take time.” The statement by the IMF mission heads is a clear indication that the Fund might not be able to finalise the agreement with Sri Lanka as anticipated by the Government. When asked about this mixed messaging, a senior Government source noted that the Government was targeting to finalise the agreement by December. The source further noted that the IMF only wanted the creditors to come to some sort of initial agreement and that the IMF did not need a signed agreement with all creditors. “I think once they see the creditors negotiating, the IMF will consider it enough to sign the agreement. The Central Bank also seems hopeful that creditor talks will start by November and so in December we can get IMF approval,” the source said, explaining the thinking behind the CBSL Chief’s statement that the agreement could be finalised by December. It is also learnt that in relation to debt restructuring talks with Sri Lanka’s main creditors, India is on board, while talks with China will begin after the Communist Party convention this month. President Wickremesinghe had also told a foreign news agency that discussions on restructuring Sri Lanka’s debt had already commenced with India and China at a “low level”. He had further noted that talks with China would go to a higher level, probably after the Chinese Communist Party’s Annual Congress.  China had also expressed its fullest support to Sri Lanka in its economic recovery process during a meeting between Foreign Minister Ali Sabry and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA). However, there was no confirmation on China’s agreement to restructure Sri Lanka’s debt. Yi had noted that China would expedite its projects in Sri Lanka under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, while also calling for the expediting of the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Sri Lanka and China.   Lack of confidence   However, Sri Lanka’s creditors have expressed concern over the country’s primary balance target of 2.3% by 2025 and higher forecasted inflation by the end of 2023 announced in the presentation by the Government during the recent meeting between the Government and private creditors. Creditors had raised questions about achieving the primary surplus of 2.3%, which was one of the main targets set out by the IMF under the Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) reached with the Government. However, CBSL Governor Dr. Weerasinghe had defended the target, stating that it was a long-term target to be achieved by 2025 and it would be achieved through a gradual increase in the primary balance over the next few years. The CBSL Governor had also stated that the Government was looking at increasing revenues, while at the same time being mindful of providing relief to the vulnerable. It is also learnt that the question raised or the answer given by the Governor did not specify whether rupee debt that was being looked at as dollar-denominated Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) was also part of domestic debt. “The perimeter of Sri Lanka’s debt exercise is still being considered, with the assistance of the debt advisors (Clifford Chance and Lazard),” Dr. Weerasinghe had said in response to the question raised on domestic debt at the creditor presentation. The Government has reportedly commenced a process to identify the holders of notes issued or guaranteed by Sri Lanka, with the principal outstanding amount of these notes being $ 12.72 billion. Morrow Sodali, a leading provider of strategic advice and shareholder services to corporate clients around the world, has been appointed to identify and compile a list of holders to assist in this process and has requested the holders (or their respective intermediaries) to disclose their identities and holdings of the notes.  Sri Lanka has meanwhile also asked a US judge to throw out a lawsuit over Sri Lanka’s debt default, saying the case brought by one bank is an “apparent attempt to gain leverage over a nation in crisis and jump ahead of other foreign creditors,” according to Bloomberg.   Meeting Modi   An unscheduled meeting took place between President Wickremesinghe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the funeral of former Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe.  Modi, who had flown in specifically for the funeral on a private jet, had spent only a few hours in Japan after arriving prior to the funeral and departing straight afterwards. During a reception hosted by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Wickremesinghe and Modi had found the opportunity to discuss the Sri Lankan economic crisis in an informal setting.  Those who viewed the meeting described Prime Minister Modi as being happy to see the President, with some describing the Prime Minister as having “walked over to the President purposefully with a big smile on his face”. In fact, both Wickremesinghe and Modi were seen as having greeted each other as old friends. Prime Minister Modi, having congratulated President Wickremesinghe on assuming the office of the presidency, had also expressed his concern over the economic situation in the country. The President in turn had quickly thanked India for its financial support for the country, while also expressing his desire to see India invest in Sri Lanka.  The conversation between the two leaders, while lasting 10 minutes, was described by those around as a positive one. It is suggested that President Wickremesinghe will visit India in the coming weeks. However, no official comment has been made regarding this by either side.   RW meets a friend   President Wickremesinghe met with the US Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Agencies in Rome Ambassador Cindy McCain last Sunday (25 September) night at his official residence on Paget Road in Colombo prior to his departure on the official visit to Japan and the Philippines. It is learnt that the President’s Office had sent a message the day prior to the meeting noting that Wickremesinghe and McCain had been friends for a long time and that they could have an informal meeting either before or after the official meeting. This message had been sent following the issues that arose during the recent visit of USAID Administrator Samantha Power. During Power’s meeting with the President, Wickremesinghe had called Power for a one-on-one meeting with her before sitting down for the scheduled meeting without the President’s Office giving prior notice to the US Mission in Colombo about it, causing some confusion. President Wickremesinghe has been a longtime friend of both Ambassador McCain and her late husband Senator John McCain. President Wickremesinghe first met Senator McCain back in 1996 in the US. Since then President Wickremesinghe has visited the McCains in America, while both President Wickremesinghe and Prof. Maithree Wickremesinghe have also hosted the McCains when they last visited Sri Lanka. However, the conversation between Wickremesinghe and McCain had focused on Sri Lanka’s efforts to alleviate the food crisis in the country. The President had briefed the delegation on the measures being implemented by the Government, including the purchasing and distribution of fertiliser and the urban agriculture programme being implemented by the Government and local authorities, as well as the assistance being sought from international partners. The Ambassador had said she had been briefed by the US Embassy and was confident that if the Government was able to see through the upcoming harvest, then it would be well placed to ensure a successful harvest next year. She had also pledged to support Sri Lanka with continued efforts to address the crisis. US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie Chung noted on Twitter that a “productive” meeting had been held between McCain and the President. “A productive meeting with President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Ambassador Cindy McCain was held to discuss the impact of ongoing economic hardships on Sri Lankans as well as explore the many ways US and SL are working together to meet urgent humanitarian needs,” the tweet read.   Lunch in transit   Meanwhile, on the way to Japan, Wickremesinghe had a stopover of several hours in Singapore.  It is learnt that during his short transit in Singapore, the President had had an unofficial meeting with Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan.  Wickremesinghe had decided to use his six-hour transit time to good use and held a meeting with Balakrishnan, with the latter also hosting Wickremesinghe and his delegation for lunch prior to the President’s onward travel to Japan. The Singaporean Minister who met Wickremesinghe is also a close friend of the President’s Chief of Staff Sagala Ratnayaka, who also accompanied Wickremesinghe on the five-day tour.    Rebuilding ties   President Wickremesinghe last week engaged in an effort to rebuild soured ties with Japan when he visited the country as the first leg of a five-day-long official overseas tour. The President travelled to Japan to attend the funeral of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a close personal friend of President Wickremesinghe. It was during the President’s tenure as Prime Minister between 2015 and 2019 that the late Japanese Prime Minister had pledged in excess of $ 3 billion in investments in the country, including the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system and an LNG power plant. During the visit to Japan, the President held bilateral discussions with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi. The talks focused on Japan’s role in assisting the country with the creditor talks ahead of the final IMF Board meeting. During these discussions, the President had been keen to ensure that the Japanese Government and people understood that Sri Lanka regretted the poor treatment of the country’s longtime ally. The President had expressed his regret to both the Prime Minister and Emperor Naruhito over the unilateral cancellations of the investment projects in the country by the former President.  The Japanese authorities, while assuring Sri Lanka of their support, had been adamant that China and India would have to be a part of the creditor talks. There had been an underlying tone which had raised concerns over the perception that China would receive preferential treatment. The President had assured the Japanese that no country would be given preferential treatment, but instead all would be treated equally.  The President had also met with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during his visit to Japan. Once again the President had been keen to stress during these talks that Sri Lanka would pursue the full implementation of the Singapore FTA, which had been unofficially halted by the Sri Lankan authorities following opposition by the political Opposition. This FTA, which was signed in 2018 by Wickremesinghe’s Government at the time, was seen as the first step towards economic integration with Southeast Asia. The Singaporean Prime Minister had welcomed the news, stating that they were hopeful this would signal a more concrete economic approach by Sri Lanka. He had also expressed interest in considering further investment projects in the country. China had sent Wan Gang, representative of the Chinese Government and Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, to attend the funeral. He is a former Minister and a fairly low-level member of the party leadership and this has been seen as a rejection of Abe and Japan, while Indian Prime Minister Modi, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and other leading world figures attended the funeral. It is also learnt that there had been an underlying tone to all meetings that Japan was overly concerned about China’s expansion in the Asian region and had been adamant that countries must deal with it as they would with any other nation. Following the visit to Japan, Wickremesinghe embarked on the second leg of his tour, which was to travel to the Philippines to attend the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB’s) 55th Board of Governors’ Meeting and for a meeting with President Marcos Jr.   Pressure at UNHRC   The Sri Lankan Government is meanwhile gearing to face the new resolution moved by Sri Lanka’s Core Group at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), with the vote on the resolution expected on Thursday (6). Foreign Minister Sabry, meanwhile, addressing the 77th UNGA in New York last week, noted that while one had a fundamental right to the freedom of expression, which was treated as being sacrosanct, this freedom must operate within the constitutional order and must be exercised while having regard for one’s fundamental duty to express oneself within the confines of the law. He also said that through the proposed legislative and constitutional amendments, democratic governance would be reinforced with independent oversight institutions, as well as with enhanced public scrutiny. “Legal and administrative frameworks are being strengthened to ensure transparency, integrity, accountability, and inclusivity in providing access to justice. A greater participation of women and youth will be ensured in this process,” he added. Stating that Sri Lanka had been a victim of terrorism for several decades, he noted that the country required appropriate laws and mechanisms to counter such. He added that the terrorists’ choice of targets and methods of financing and radicalisation, as well as the use of new technologies as weapons, had been constantly evolving and that legislative measures and law enforcement mechanisms must be put in place to counter radical ideologies leading to violent extremism and to curb terrorists’ use and abuse of the internet and social media platforms.   Hinting of a new govt.   Despite internal squabbles, the SLPP continues to carry out its restructuring programme under MP Namal’s leadership, with the participation of senior SLPP members. One of the key factors highlighted during these meetings by Namal and the rest of the senior SLPPers is the party’s move to form a new political alliance under the leadership of Party Leader, former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Nevertheless, SLPP Local Government members continue to express concern over the party’s ability to face an election – Local Government Elections – next year. A majority of the SLPPers who had attended the meetings convened by Namal and the other seniors had said they were not prepared to face Local Government Polls anytime soon. However, it is in such a backdrop that the SLPP has recorded what seems like a victory since the 2020 General Election. Albeit an election for the cooperative, the SLPP was last Tuesday (27 September) elated by the party’s victory at the Gampola and Panadura Cooperatives. The SLPP issued a statement noting that the party had claimed significant victories in two local cooperative elections at the Gampola and Panadura Cooperatives. “It’s a significant victory for us that shows that our support base is with us despite Opposition claims,” the SLPP noted. In the Panadura Local Cooperative Election, the group led by the SLPP has won 53 out of a total of 87 seats of the council. The group led by the Opposition has obtained 34 seats in the Panadura Local Cooperative. Meanwhile, the group led by the SLPP has won six seats to represent the Board of the Gampola Local Cooperative. The group led by the Opposition has won just one seat.  Meanwhile, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has remained silent during the past few months, last week started to meet with several members of the SLPP at his official residence. It is learnt that, during these meetings, MR had made critical comments about former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.   The Rajapaksa meeting   However, Namal had decided to organise a meeting between the senior Rajapaksa brothers to put forward a united front in order to build confidence among the SLPPers, who are still finding it difficult to gather the strength to start work at the grassroots. Namal had organised the hybrid meeting since Basil Rajapaksa had joined the meeting online from the US. Mahinda, Gotabaya, Basil, and Namal had discussed the current situation in the country and the SLPP’s political future. It is learnt that the Rajapaksas had decided to continue with the party reforms under Namal and for the SLPP to also take a firm stand with regard to governance since the party was still the majority in Parliament. The meeting had also looked at the impending Local Government Elections. It was Basil’s opinion that the once-delayed Local Government Elections should not be delayed any further. Following the meeting between the Rajapaksa brothers, it is learnt that MR had had a separate one-on-one discussion with Gotabaya. Details of this discussion were not immediately known.   Call for polls   The SJB meanwhile has already called on the Election Commission to dissolve the Local Government bodies and call for elections as stipulated by law. On 20 September, the Election Commission received the legal powers to call for the already-delayed Local Government Elections. A group of SJB MPs led by Party Secretary Madduma Bandara and several others handed over a letter to the Election Commission noting that steps should be taken to immediately commence the process to hold Local Government Elections. Opposition political parties continue to demand the holding of Local Government Elections – which have been delayed by a year – early next year, claiming that polls to elect Local Government bodies cannot not be postponed any further without legal implications. Election Commission Chairman S.G. Punchihewa has meanwhile stated that Local Government Elections will not be delayed any further and that the commission will announce the dates for the polls this November after incorporating the ‘Youth List’ into the 2022 electoral register. However, senior members of the Government have already hinted at the possibility of further delaying the Local Government Polls by giving priority to the finalising of electoral reforms. The President and Prime Minister have both noted that the Local Government Elections should be held following the implementation of the proposed electoral reforms with the inclusion of proposals that have been made by members of civil society. Nevertheless, Opposition political parties have commenced a campaign to demand polls by next year.   SLFP split surfaces   The widening split in the SLFP was witnessed on Monday (26) at the commemoration of Party Founder, the late S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, former Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike, and former Speaker Anura Bandaranaike at the Horagolla Samadhi in Attanagalla. The event was held under the patronage of former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and her sister Sunethra. The event saw the attendance of a large number of SLFPers, including senior SLFP MPs who had recently joined the Government such as Mahinda Amaraweera, Lasantha Alagiyawanna, Jagath Pushpakumara, and Ranjith Siyambalapitiya, as well as former SLFPers who had joined the SLPP and are now seated independently in Parliament, like MPs Anura Priyadarshana Yapa, Chandima Weerakkodi, and Piyankara Jayaratne. MP Duminda Dissanayake, who is tipped to join the Government, was also present at the event in Attanagalla. Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena and former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya also attended the event. However, incumbent SLFP Leader, former President Maithripala Sirisena and SLFP General Secretary MP Dayasiri Jayasekara did not attend the event in Attanagalla. They had instead organised a separate event to commemorate the Bandaranaikes at the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall (BMICH) in Colombo.  


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