The renewable energy challenge: Lack of will and skills holding SL back: Dr. Vidhura Ralapanawe

01 Jan 2022

The renewable energy challenge: Lack of will and skills holding SL back: Dr. Vidhura Ralapanawe

01 Jan 2022

By Asiri Fernando Sri Lanka has set an ambitious target of reaching 70% of her energy needs through renewable energy by 2030. While the policy declaration by the President drew much attention from foreign leaders, industry giants, scientists, and environmentalists, the enthusiasm of the Government’s power generation mechanism towards the set goal was lukewarm. Over the last few decades Sri Lankans have endured much due to inefficient planning and management of the national power supply. A spate of power failures over the last few weeks has once again shone a spotlight on the long-term issue of electricity supply. Today, amidst a global drive to move towards renewable energy, Sri Lanka’s prospects of going green for energy seem to be bogged down by bureaucratic bottlenecks, competing interests, policy changes, and the lack of a transparent and level playing field. As a result, Sri Lankan consumers are denied a reliable, greener, and affordable power supply. In an interview with The Sunday Morning, Sustainability and Renewable Energy Specialist Dr. Vidhura Ralapanawe discussed Sri Lanka’s renewable energy potential, plans, bottlenecks, and what should be done to streamline investment and fast-track renewable energy options. Following are excerpts from the interview: Sri Lanka has set a 70% renewable energy target to reach by 2030 as a policy decision. In your opinion, what are the key challenges that Sri Lanka will face in reaching this target? Sri Lanka has significant renewable energy potential, which is cheaper than all fossil fuel options (coal, oil, or gas). While the talk of coal has ended, now the conversation is on importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) at high costs. CEB just closed a tender for another 350 megawatt (MW) oil/gas power plant. I am yet to see a single wind/solar tender for more than 20 MW from CEB as of now. There are no technical challenges for even an 80% renewable energy grid that is not commercially implementable. The only two challenges I see are will and skill. CEB has been procrastinating and its denial of the global energy transformation has been harmful. The original government target was 80% renewables – a “well connected” Additional General Manager (AGM) was responsible for getting the President to reduce it to 70%, and then attempted to make it “clean energy” to reduce renewables to 50%. All to build more coal and gas. So now we have a 70% renewable target. Two years of the current Government had passed, but CEB still doesn’t even have a plan. So, the will has been lacking, especially among the top Ministry officials. Now a senior Ministry official is trying to force the retirement of the current General Manager (GM) – the only serious pro-renewable energy leader in the CEB. Both Ministers are committed and trying to change this, but are being stymied. From a technical front, many of the CEB seniors appear to not understand how a modern grid with high renewable energy penetration works. Plenty of expat Sri Lankans do this on a regular basis in the grids of the US, the UK, Australia, and other countries. The skill here is lacking but can be easily harnessed and augmented. In terms of renewable energy, what kind of potential does Sri Lanka hold, and what areas do you think should be prioritised over the short-term? Sri Lanka has very high potential for onshore and offshore wind and solar. Land is a challenge for solar with competing demands, but this can be overcome by placing solar panels on reservoirs (floating solar) and rooftops. We also have opportunities for biomass-based generation. With an acute energy deficit, we need projects that can be fast-tracked (rooftop solar and floating solar). Projects that can leverage existing transmission networks should proceed first. Puttalam lagoon, Randenigala Reservoir, Ulhitiya-Rathkinda Reservoir, and Chandrika Wewa are some of the potential renewable energy projects that can be rapidly connected. The feed-in tariff-based small projects can proceed faster and removing administrative hurdles for rooftop solar is also needed. Sri Lanka has been trying to introduce rooftop solar for homes, and solar farms/commercial rooftop for industrial needs over the last few years. However, many who have tried to get onboard are now complaining about the process. What has gone wrong and what do you think can be done to remove the bottlenecks that are there? CEB’s rooftop solar approval process is not transparent and is not engineering-based – something the GM himself has agreed on. The connection timeline is dependent on the whims of local CEB officials. Senior CEB officials have been threatening to reduce the tariff for over three years, creating market uncertainty. The simplest form of contracting for small-scale projects is feed-in tariff, which has been blocked by CEB from 2016. Now there is interest at the Ministry to revive this – and is opposed by its pro-fossil fuel trade union CEB Employees’ Union (CEBEU). CEB launched 800 tenders for small-scale solar systems – less than 75 kilowatt (kW) – another initiative by a CEB AGM. These are trivial projects when the aim is to build 10 gigawatt (GW) in a decade, as it just adds transaction costs and resources without a reasonable return. The President himself had said he was surprised by the lack of interest in this tender by the public. If the Government continues to rely on the advice of CEB officials who slow the growth of renewables, they will continue to be “surprised” by the lack of enthusiasm by the public. In your opinion, what can the CEB, and the Ministry of Power, do to streamline the process by which renewable projects are awarded? We need approximately 10 GW of renewable energy projects and storage to be built in the next 10 years, at a scale never done before. This cannot be done as business as usual. The CEB’s record of tendering and contracting is poor, with most projects mired in controversy and in courts. Clarifying the roles of the two institutions – CEB and Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SLSEA) – and the two ministries is critical. SLSEA’s recent call for expressions of interest (EOI) for projects larger than 50 MW yielded over 600 proposals (over 30 GW) – yet no one knows how these projects will be contracted. We need to allocate capacities for small-scale projects (less than 10 MW), medium-scale projects (10-50 MW), and large-scale projects (>50 MW). This gives visibility for investors to the pipeline of projects. We need an entity staffed with high calibre procurement specialists for contracting, not engineers and bureaucrats. India created the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) which runs tenders and reverse auctions for over 30 GW per annum. We can replicate this and bring the necessary skill. The CEB needs to urgently develop a combined transmission and generation plan that lays out this prioritisation using correct timelines for project completion. What can be done to improve transparency and policy consistency of the above process? We need to provide a clear investor roadmap. For example, the state of New South Wales in Australia published a 10-year tender timeline for renewable energy projects, transmission, and storage plan (Australian dollars 32 billion). This level of clarity will allow global investors to plan their investments in Sri Lanka, allowing us to get better pricing and proposals. We cannot muddle our way to this. Next, we need to have clear contracting mechanisms put in place. For smaller projects (less than 10 MW) we must revive the feed-in tariff mechanism with an economically attractive tariff to reflect the scale of the anticipated build. The CEB’s current approach, allowing attractive tariffs for fossil fuels while pushing for meagre return on investment (ROI) for renewables, must end. This mechanism was responsible for the current mini-hydro and biomass plants, most of the private wind plants and 50 MW ground mounted solar plants. The opposition of CEBEU and some senior CEB officials stopped this scheme from 2016, and this is partly responsible for our current power crisis. When the rest of the world scaled up wind and solar, we slowed our deployment. The only beneficiary of this blockage has been emergency power companies. For large-scale projects, international tenders with properly drafted tender documents and transparent processes are needed. Sadly, we seem to be keen in giving the larger projects (some with prepared tender documents) to investors without price and process transparency. This will not build confidence among any investor to invest in Sri Lanka. What changes or upgrades to the power grid transmission system will help improve connectivity of renewable energy to the national grid? It is difficult to say, as this must be done via a combined generation and transmission plan, using accurate cost parameters and technological options. The current CEB approach of doing separate generation and transmission expansion plans is not appropriate. Once accurate modelling of the existing power system is done, augmentation options can be decided. We can deploy cheaper “virtual transmission” by locating battery storage units at either end of the required transmission line if they are only getting loaded part of the day. These types of options reduce the overall cost of the grid and fast-track implementation. To do that, CEB planners must first understand the existing grid power flows and also the technology options currently available and costs. A casual reading of the CEB generation plan on battery storage, “promising technology”, shows how much we have lost the plot. Battery storage is not “modelled” in the generation planning process, and also says a lot (India began modelling solar and storage back in 2018). Public statements by senior generation planning engineers indicate they do not understand costs. This apparent battery phobia does not elicit confidence in the CEB navigating the transition. Not only the CEB, hearing outdated comments of some leading (and vocal) university lecturers on battery storage makes me feel ashamed. In your opinion, should Sri Lanka be considering power storage options like the one established in South Australia to store and best utilise the power generated by different sources? You are referring to South Australia’s “big battery” – the Hornsdale Power Reserve with 150 MW/193.5 megawatt hour (MWh) capacity – although bigger batteries exist in other parts of Australia and the US now. Only 29 MWh is used for “storage” and the balance is for system strengthening of the South Australian grid – where 62.6% of energy for 2021 came from variable renewable energy sources (wind/solar). So, it is not designed as a store-release on a daily cycle – though they do some energy arbitrage. Batteries that do a daily store-release cycle exist in many parts of the world. They are critical in our energy future as short-term storage. How we design battery storage systems is dependent on the overall system design. Standalone battery storage is used where there is an energy market (where pricing often goes into negative territory). We do not have such a market, and to also avoid costly transmission upgrades, we should design large solar plants with co-located battery storage. Battery storage is needed for critical grid services such as voltage and frequency stabilisation, and “synthetic inertia” so that the system can effectively respond to failures of generation or transmission. Creating a market for such services (inertia, fast-frequency services) will allow the private sector to invest in these (and other emerging technologies) at a faster and economical basis. The Norochcholai power plant has been plagued with issues and outages over the years. What can be done to improve its efficiency and availability? A technology, maintenance, and management practices review from a global expert team is desperately needed. We are beholden to China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) for everything – most of the repairs and major overhauls are done with a host of Chinese specialists based full-time in Norochcholai or brought for the purpose – even after 10 years of plant operations. We need to evaluate skills and ask why a coal plant is manned by so many electrical engineers rather than mechanical engineers. Norochcholai is way behind its maintenance cycles. The Level A overhaul done after every five years of operation is overdue in all three units (the overhaul takes five months approximately per unit). This is not how we should run a plant that provides 35% of the country’s energy. It also has critical vulnerabilities, as our blackouts indicate. The 2020 blackout resulted in a bus bar breaker of the gas-insulated high-voltage switchgear (GISS) getting burnt – yet no one knows why it happened, and what should be done to prevent recurrence. We need better engineering minds at work. If there is a power supply shortage next year due to drop in hydro or coal power, what short-term measures can the CEB use to fill the demand? We will have a power shortage next year and years after unless rapid renewable energy scaling happens. We were spared in 2020 and 2021 due to lockdowns reducing demand. No proper plan was put in place following 2019 blackouts to address shortages. CEB’s preferred approach is to procure emergency power as usual. It appears that they are waiting for the last minute – not allowing sufficient time for bidders to put proper bids (and perhaps allowing only preferred parties to bid). This is nothing new. Alternative solutions include leveraging existing backup generation capacities in private and state institutions – this has been spoken of every year, but never implemented. If we can rapidly scale renewable energy in the next 12 months, we may be able to avoid the same scenario coming up in 2023 – but don’t hold your breath just yet. In your opinion, have the delays in building new power plants over the last two decades contributed to the current power-related problems? Yes, but this is a loaded question, privileging fossil fuel plants. Technically, Sri Lanka does not need ANY new fossil fuel plants. First, take a look at CEB’s planning process of pushing power plants in the generation plans that are unlikely to be built (such as multiple coal plants even in the 2020 plan, going against state policy). Not understanding global technological, price, and ecological trends leads us there. Second, the CEB has been blocking feed-in-tariffs since 2016, and its resistance to rooftop solar projects has stopped or delayed these projects. Third, CEB’s reluctance to contracting large-scale renewable energy projects. We have one 100 MW wind plant and apart from this the largest wind plant, what we have is 20 MW wind plants, and the largest solar plant is 10 MW. There are no large projects even in a committed timeline as of now. The Sobadanavi plant is still in limbo (contracted in 2016, mired in courts for over five years, and now still with no financial closure). The current CEBEU actions on the Yugadanavi-New Fortress Energy project will likely delay (and perhaps stall) it. If you look at construction times, the fastest power plants that can come online are renewable energy. I have previously mentioned how to structure the procurement. This is the only viable course of action for Sri Lanka. What changes to the regulatory and compliance control system should Sri Lanka enact to make the national power supply efficient, resilient, and accountable? We have to admit that our regulatory process has failed. CEB continues to ignore the regulator Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL), with tacit approval of a senior power ministry official who is keen to look after the CEBEU’s interest and not the sector’s stakeholders. Regulators also become powerless when, for every issue, they are forced to go to courts for resolution. Unless the Ministry and Government becomes serious about the role of the regulator, the regulatory process fails. Take the two partial and two total blackouts of 2020 and 2021. The Ministry Secretary initiated reports from a committee for the first two. No substantive recommendations have been implemented. The first report was hidden, and only a leaked version exists in the public domain. People had to file right to information (RTI) requests and PUCSL had to call for a public hearing to get the report of the second. 2020’s power failure was related to improper protection co-ordination in the transmission system. Same for this year. If this issue was addressed in the previous 12 months, we would not have had the 2021 blackout. It is rumoured that the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) was about to arrest some engineers on suspicion of sabotage, and a senior AGM with “connections” intervened to get the CID inquiry stopped. So where is the accountability? As per reports coming out, a single-phase line-to-earth fault in one circuit (Kotmale-Biyagama has two circuits for redundancy) took down the whole system. We don’t have a culture of accountability, starting from the Ministry and the Government. Unless this changes, we will not have a power system which meets any of the three parameters you mentioned – efficient, resilient, or accountable.

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The renewable energy challenge: Lack of will and skills holding SL back: Dr. Vidhura Ralapanawe

The renewable energy challenge: Lack of will and skills holding SL back: Dr. Vidhura Ralapanawe

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