By Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu What would Sri Lanka look like in January 2020 and the ensuing years? In the country famed to be like no other, we could have an alleged war criminal as President and yet another as the Army Commander. Add to this, the current Leader of the Opposition who is a member of two parties, if such could be the case – one in Parliament and the other not. According to him, he would be Prime Minister if the alleged war criminal, his brother, becomes President and the party not in Parliament, at the moment, wins the general election. The reception to Shavendra Silva’s appointment as the Army Commander is quite instructive. The US, Canada, the EU, and the High Commissioner for Human Rights have all expressed their deep concerns, only to be met by the shrill and in other parts hoarse chorus of desperate sovereignty enthusiasts demanding that they mind their business and stay out of our internal affairs. Yes, the appointment of the Army Commander is the prerogative of the President. Yet in this day and age, one would have thought due consideration would have been given to the sensitivities of the key ethnic minority group in the country and to the allegedly mounting evidence of responsibility for war crimes. This is not the 19th Century or indeed the 20th, where Westphalian notions of sovereignty are held on to for dear life and where the notion of an international community is contrasted against the billiard ball model of realist interaction between states – when they interact or indeed engage, they collide, their hard surfaces knocking against each other like billiard balls on a billiard table. A past repeated? The gross affronts to the sensitivities of the Tamil community are compounded by the possible adverse consequences for our participation in UN peacekeeping operations, where our record has already been blemished by accusations of involvement in a sex racket. Are we moving forward with security sector reform and releasing our soldiers to be part of peacekeeping operations without controversy, or are we working according to an agenda of which most of us are unaware? Media reports suggest that Viyathmaga and Eliya notwithstanding, there is a group of committed and dedicated ex-servicemen to Gotabaya Rajapaksa conjuring up images of a putative Praetorian Guard of yore or more recently of the Nazi variants. It would indeed be very revealing to know what the attitude towards the 19th Amendment would be, if they win. My guess is that they would work to repeal it and restore the executive presidency of 1978 or at the very least, ignore it to the extent possible in practice. After all, Gotabaya is not running to be the ceremonial head of the Republic!

Perhaps the delay in announcing the UNP candidate may be fortuitous, since the SLPP candidate is now somewhat in doubt. As to whether, in such a scenario, Sajith Premadasa’s prospects as a candidate are dimmed, remains to be seen

All of this of course is academic if the Gotabaya candidacy is thrown out on the grounds of the violations of election law. There is the allegation that needs thorough investigation and appropriate action that Gotabaya voted for his brother in 2005 when he was not a Sri Lankan citizen and therefore not entitled to. If it is proven that he voted, surely there are no mitigating circumstances for this clear-cut violation of the election laws of this country. Can he claim that he did not know that he had to be a citizen to vote or that he had given up his Sri Lankan citizenship to become a US citizen? Is this the type of person we want/need to provide strong and decisive leadership? Is this the type of person who can unite the country and seize the opportunities for prosperity? Was Gotabaya to be deemed ineligible, former Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa would probably be the SLPP candidate. In many respects, he is not an easy candidate to defeat and in many respects, one that could win. There are no allegations of war crimes or human rights violations – egregious or otherwise – against him. No white vans and special platoons. Moreover, he commands respect and possesses gravitas – all befitting the post-19th Amendment presidency.

Media reports suggest that Viyathmaga and Eliya notwithstanding, there is a group of committed and dedicated ex-servicemen to Gotabaya Rajapaksa conjuring up images of a putative Praetorian Guard of yore or more recently of the Nazi variants

Perhaps the delay in announcing the UNP candidate may be fortuitous, since the SLPP candidate is now somewhat in doubt. As to whether, in such a scenario, Sajith Premadasa’s prospects as a candidate are dimmed, remains to be seen. The same campaign cannot be run against Chamal as would be run against Gotabaya. Family politics-wise too, whilst there could be clashes between Mahinda and Gotabaya, Chamal may well be better placed to rein in Mahinda. There is of course the question of the sons and as to whether Shasheendra would contest in a general election. The election is still very much open and apart from the plethora of independents plus Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the main candidates are yet unknown, given the cloud over Gotabaya’s head. Let us hope and pray that whatever the cloud over the victor’s head, it will be dispelled and we can move ahead. photo saman abesiriwardana