By Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu
There will be no provincial council elections, but there will be a presidential election. It will be before 7 December, suggesting that it actually will be in the last weeks of November. The date is yet to be announced; likewise, the call for nominations.
Nevertheless, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) announced that its candidate will be Gotabaya Rajapaksa while the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) nominated Party Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. There are a host of others too, begging the question of as to when the United National Party (UNP) will declare its candidate and who it will be.
The choice is between current Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Deputy Leader and Minister of Housing Sajith Premadasa, with Speaker Karu Jayasuriya seen as a third and even “compromise” candidate. Media speculation focused on the contest between them, particularly the first two with Premadasa holding mass meetings in support of his candidacy and making categorical statements to the effect that he will be the candidate.
Wickremesinghe, on the other hand, believes that there is no virtue in announcing a candidate before one has to – nominations are yet to be called for and the date of the election set – since an early announcement may lead to the candidate peaking too soon. The nomination will be decided by the Working Committee of the party, whose members are believed to be appointees of the Leader.
Consequently, the Premadasa faction wants it to be decided jointly by the Working Committee and the parliamentary group. Presumably, some decision will be arrived at before the middle of the month so that by the end of it, the party will have announced its candidate.
A lot riding on his candidacy
On the face of it, Sajith Premadasa has to run, whether as a UNP candidate or not, or else he will look weak in the face of Wickremesinghe’s determination to hold on.
Many in the party are backing him on the grounds that only he can win against Gotabaya or any other SLPP candidate.
On paper, the argument is that some 10% of the core UNP vote has not voted since Wickremesinghe became leader of the party on account of opposition to him.
Premadasa can energise them. As for minority votes, the issue is as to whether they will come out in the numbers they did in 2015 – whoever does come out, it is assumed, will vote against the Rajapaksas.
A strong united UNP which believes in the prospect of victory can indeed win. What Premadasa supporters are yet to tell us is as to what kind of campaign their candidate will run. Policies? Profile? Who will be the key influencers of policy? So far, the argument is only about winning, whilst at the same time, there is apprehension of repeating the same mistake of 2015 and producing another Sirisena, not as far as competence in governance is concerned, but with regard to democratic values and common sense on the economic front.
Premadasa has a lot riding on his candidacy, particularly since it is being mooted as marking the onset of a new generation at the helm of political and governmental power. Is this new generation going to move forward in every respect or herald a return back to the future in terms of a more socialistic economy, emphasis on development, and the treatment of rights as irrelevant at best and subversive at worst? Running as his father’s son not only conjures up the concern for the poor and marginalised, but also the authoritarianism of the past – before the Rajapaksas was Premadasa.
A Wickremesinghe candidacy seems dead in the water in that all polls show the Prime Minister succumbing to a near-Rajapaksa landslide. This does not have to be the end of a political career for the Prime Minister either, since he is the one politician in the country with a vision for it who could well serve as a senior minister in charge of policy planning for the future.
Given the 19th Amendment and the arguments about the Prime Minister being the most important position in government, suggesting that Wickremesinghe be Prime Minister to Premadasa’s President will not work. Wickremesinghe is and should be the ideas man.
Whoever the candidates, we are gearing up for an interesting election if it is to be a Gotabaya/Sajith contest. A poll has shown that Premadasa currently would narrow the margin considerably against Rajapaksa and that Wickremesinghe would lose by a wide margin. Good, bad, or indifferent, the country knows what to expect from a Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency. Premadasa must counter this with a positive vision of what he intends for all of us. He must seize the initiative.
Meanwhile, the investigation into whether US citizen Gotabaya Rajapaksa broke the law of the land and voted for his brother as President when he was not entitled to, must be thoroughly and impartially investigated. Does anyone believe that he did not know that he wasn’t a citizen, if and when he voted for his brother?
There will be no provincial council elections, but there will be a presidential election. It will be before 7 December, suggesting that it actually will be in the last weeks of November. The date is yet to be announced; likewise, the call for nominations.
Nevertheless, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) announced that its candidate will be Gotabaya Rajapaksa while the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) nominated Party Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. There are a host of others too, begging the question of as to when the United National Party (UNP) will declare its candidate and who it will be.
The choice is between current Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Deputy Leader and Minister of Housing Sajith Premadasa, with Speaker Karu Jayasuriya seen as a third and even “compromise” candidate. Media speculation focused on the contest between them, particularly the first two with Premadasa holding mass meetings in support of his candidacy and making categorical statements to the effect that he will be the candidate.
Wickremesinghe, on the other hand, believes that there is no virtue in announcing a candidate before one has to – nominations are yet to be called for and the date of the election set – since an early announcement may lead to the candidate peaking too soon. The nomination will be decided by the Working Committee of the party, whose members are believed to be appointees of the Leader.
Consequently, the Premadasa faction wants it to be decided jointly by the Working Committee and the parliamentary group. Presumably, some decision will be arrived at before the middle of the month so that by the end of it, the party will have announced its candidate.
A lot riding on his candidacy
On the face of it, Sajith Premadasa has to run, whether as a UNP candidate or not, or else he will look weak in the face of Wickremesinghe’s determination to hold on.
Many in the party are backing him on the grounds that only he can win against Gotabaya or any other SLPP candidate.
On paper, the argument is that some 10% of the core UNP vote has not voted since Wickremesinghe became leader of the party on account of opposition to him.
Premadasa can energise them. As for minority votes, the issue is as to whether they will come out in the numbers they did in 2015 – whoever does come out, it is assumed, will vote against the Rajapaksas.
A strong united UNP which believes in the prospect of victory can indeed win. What Premadasa supporters are yet to tell us is as to what kind of campaign their candidate will run. Policies? Profile? Who will be the key influencers of policy? So far, the argument is only about winning, whilst at the same time, there is apprehension of repeating the same mistake of 2015 and producing another Sirisena, not as far as competence in governance is concerned, but with regard to democratic values and common sense on the economic front.
Premadasa has a lot riding on his candidacy, particularly since it is being mooted as marking the onset of a new generation at the helm of political and governmental power. Is this new generation going to move forward in every respect or herald a return back to the future in terms of a more socialistic economy, emphasis on development, and the treatment of rights as irrelevant at best and subversive at worst? Running as his father’s son not only conjures up the concern for the poor and marginalised, but also the authoritarianism of the past – before the Rajapaksas was Premadasa.
A Wickremesinghe candidacy seems dead in the water in that all polls show the Prime Minister succumbing to a near-Rajapaksa landslide. This does not have to be the end of a political career for the Prime Minister either, since he is the one politician in the country with a vision for it who could well serve as a senior minister in charge of policy planning for the future.
Given the 19th Amendment and the arguments about the Prime Minister being the most important position in government, suggesting that Wickremesinghe be Prime Minister to Premadasa’s President will not work. Wickremesinghe is and should be the ideas man.
Whoever the candidates, we are gearing up for an interesting election if it is to be a Gotabaya/Sajith contest. A poll has shown that Premadasa currently would narrow the margin considerably against Rajapaksa and that Wickremesinghe would lose by a wide margin. Good, bad, or indifferent, the country knows what to expect from a Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency. Premadasa must counter this with a positive vision of what he intends for all of us. He must seize the initiative.
Meanwhile, the investigation into whether US citizen Gotabaya Rajapaksa broke the law of the land and voted for his brother as President when he was not entitled to, must be thoroughly and impartially investigated. Does anyone believe that he did not know that he wasn’t a citizen, if and when he voted for his brother?