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A diplomatic trilemma?

21 Aug 2022

By Asiri Fernando   Last week, Sri Lanka faced a crucial foreign policy test with the arrival of the controversial Chinese satellite tracking vessel Yuan Wang 5 at the Hambantota International Port (HIP) for a six-day replenishment stop.  Sri Lanka’s decision to defer the previously permitted visit, followed by consultation and the subsequent greenlight for the vessel to dock at HIP later (16 Tuesday), highlights the diplomatic trilemma that small island nations like Sri Lanka face during great power rivalries.  As a crisis-ridden country struggling to regain credibility among and the confidence of the international community, Sri Lanka’s decision was a difficult choice. The visit of the Yuan Wang 5 entangled Sri Lanka in a trilemma involving the strategic rivalries between India, the US, and China, which is increasingly playing out in the Indian Ocean.  It is learnt that earlier this month, India and the US had expressed concerns over the visit of the vessel, which was originally permitted to visit HIP on 11 August, followed by an effort by the Government to convince both parties that their concerns were not warranted, while trying to convince the Chinese to defer the vessel’s arrival. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), concerned parties failed to provide concrete reasons for Sri Lanka to deny the vessel entry into the port.  The inconsistency in Sri Lanka’s stance on the Chinese ship’s visit and concerns expressed by India caused much speculation about the need to manage regional security relationships while maintaining policy consistency.  Over the last two weeks, The Sunday Morning reported concerns by diplomats, economists, and policymakers about the impact of the Government’s handling of the issue, especially regarding the importance of remaining credible in the eyes of Sri Lanka’s creditors and financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Sri Lanka’s debt crisis also makes it vital that the bankrupt island nation engages China on restructuring its debt held by the global power. The Yuan Wang 5 episode will likely leave significant lessons for all parties concerned, but more so for Sri Lanka. The visit, which was not the first for Sri Lanka, and unlikely to be the last, highlights the need for a clear set of guidelines for port calls of such vessels and warships, which needs bipartisan support and professional management, if the island is not to repeat missteps of the past.   Sri Lanka does have a port call procedure in place, which was introduced in 2018. However, its implementation for the Yuan Wang 5 could have been carried out with better foresight and due diligence.    Enter Yuan Wang 5   The vessel (IMO registration no. 9413054), a 222 metre-long, 22,686 gross tonne behemoth with four massive dish antennas and several auxiliary sensors, which included two small observatories, entered the HIP at 7.45 a.m. with the assistance of two tugboats.  The Chinese were clearly concerned about the vessel’s security, with several CCTV cameras including thermal imaging electro-optics dotting the length of the vessel’s bulwark. According to Chinese diplomats on site, the vessel, classified as a ‘Scientific Research Vessel’ by them, had been at sea for nearly 30 days before calling at Hambantota.  For journalists, gaining access to cover the port call involved a complex process of obtaining clearance from the Sri Lanka Navy, the Customs Department, and port authorities, who insisted on complying with Covid-19 procedures of taking a Rapid Antigen Test prior to entry into the port, checking equipment brought for the coverage, and only granting access to accredited media personnel, both foreign and local.  According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the vessel was given permission to stay in port for replenishment from 16-22 August. In accordance with existing port call regulations for scientific research vessels, Sri Lanka has notified the Yuan Wang 5 to keep its Automatic Ship Identification (AIS) system switched on at all times and for the vessel to not carry out any research while navigating through the island’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Over the last few years, Sri Lanka has permitted scientific research vessels of many countries including China to call on Sri Lankan ports for replenishment.  The Sri Lanka Navy maintained watch from a distance, with a fast-attack craft moored alongside the same pier that the Yuan Wang 5 was docked at. Navy personnel manned the entry points to the port and patrolled the facility. However, they did not afford a traditional naval welcome to the Yuan Wang 5, which is normally accorded to visiting warships.    The welcome    The Yuan Wang 5’s arrival at HIP was greeted by approximately 150 port staff waving Chinese and Sri Lankan flags. The local dignitaries included several members of Parliament. The welcoming ceremony was led by Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong, who called the vessel “the ship of friendship, peace, and civilisation”. Eleven members of Parliament, mostly from the Sri Lanka Podujana Party (SLPP), and some members of the Communist Party were among the invitees. Rear Admiral (Retd) Sarath Weerasekera, Gevindu Kumaratunga, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Wimal Weerawansa, Ven. Athuraliya Rathana Thera, Mohomad Muzammil, Prof. Tissa Vitarana, Shan Wijayalal De Silva, Asanka Navarathne, Gamini Waleboda, and Nimal Piyathissa were the parliamentarians present. The absence of any member of the Government or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was noticeable.  “In the genial sunshine and sea breeze, we are here with great joy to warmly greet the ship of friendship, peace, and civilisation – the Yuan Wang 5 scientific research vessel. On behalf of all the Embassy colleagues, Chinese companies, and overseas Chinese in Sri Lanka, I would like to firstly extend a warmest welcome to all of you for visiting our traditional friendly neighbour, the beautiful Sri Lanka. I would also like to take this opportunity to express my most heartfelt thanks to all the Sri Lankan friends who have long cared about and supported the China-Sri Lanka friendship, especially those who contribute to this vessel’s port call to Hambantota Port for replenishment,” Ambassador Qi Zhenhong told the crew of the Yuan Wang 5.  Ambassador Qi in his speech cited the celebration of the 65th anniversary of China-Sri Lanka diplomatic ties and the 70th anniversary of the Rice-Rubber Pact which falls in 2022, stating that the Yuan Wang 5’s visit to Hambantota was a significant event in the celebrations.  Qi also called HIP the “most powerful engine for Sri Lanka to achieve economic recovery and enhance its capacity of self-development,” pointing out that the port, as a major ‘Belt and Road’ cooperation project, was a symbol of China-Sri Lanka friendship and cooperation. A Chinese diplomat present at the occasion told The Sunday Morning that a similar satellite tracking vessel from China had called at Colombo Port several years ago, with no concerns raised by anyone.  “We are happy to see that you have sailed fearlessly through dangers and waves, overcome many difficulties and challenges, both predictable and unpredictable, and finally arrived at Hambantota,” Qi stressed in his address to the crew of the Yuan Wang 5, adding that the vessel’s arrival at HIP, despite “some different rough weather,” was a sign of “courage, tenacity, and invincibility, but also the deeply-rooted, enduring, and unshakable traditional friendship between our two countries”. According to Captain Zhang Hongwang of the Yuan Wang 5, the vessel is part of China’s satellite and space missions tracking fleet. Hongwang told the gathering that the vessel was in the Indian Ocean in support of Chinese space missions and to track their satellite constellations, adding that the mission was “peaceful” and that the visit to Hambantota was only for replenishment.   Concerns    However, according to Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) Research Fellow Dr. Collin Koh Swee Lean, the concern surrounding the vessel and its possible use for espionage stems from two facts. Firstly, the ship belongs to the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force and is not a civilian entity; and secondly, due to China’s emphasis on civil-military fusion, it means many platforms can carry out dual functions. Some in the US and Indian defence establishment believe that the vessel is also capable of tracking intercontinental ballistic missiles and is not restricted in its use solely for civilian space missions. As India and China advance their space programmes, which have both civil and military applications, concerns regarding such ships will likely continue. Last year, India commissioned its first missile and satellite tracking vessel, INS Dhruv, entering a small club of nations that possess such capabilities. Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Economist and National University of Singapore Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja pointed out that China may be testing terms of the HIP lease agreement by sending such a vessel to the Chinese-managed port.    Political friends    Addressing the welcome ceremony, MP Weerawansa told the gathering that the Indian Ocean should be a region of peace and not become a region for rivalry.  “This is why our party leaders were consistent in our view that this vessel, this scientific research and communication ship, should be allowed to dock at Hambantota Port, despite concerns by some that it is a ‘spy ship’. China has been a long-term friend and has consistently been there for Sri Lanka during many hardships. China is our friend. “China has never interfered in our internal affairs or dictated to us what type of governance model we should use. China has also never worked to establish NGOs in Sri Lanka or funded them with an attempt to destabilise the State. Therefore, China is one of the few countries that reaches out to us as friends to help us get out of this economic crisis. We hope that China will focus on helping us with investments and not with loans in our recovery effort,” Weerawansa said.  Comments made by politicians such as Nanayakkara at the event were disapproved by a senior MFA official who spoke to The Sunday Morning, stating that such a platform was not the occasion to make ideological and anti-imperialistic comments. “Such passionate statements neither help Sri Lanka nor help us defuse the tension around this matter,” the official said.  Like the lack of State representation, the lack of representation from the main Opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), was also noticeable.    ‘Don’t obstruct us’   Commenting on the visit, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin, addressing the media recently, stressed that China would continue to help Sri Lanka overcome the economic crisis it was facing. “For years, the two countries have maintained close cooperation in marine scientific research. China is ready to work with the Sri Lankan side to consolidate political mutual trust, deepen win-win cooperation, and promote the sound and steady development of bilateral relations. I want to stress again that the marine scientific research activities of the Yuan Wang 5 ship are consistent with international law and international customary practice. They do not affect the security and economic interests of any country and should not be obstructed by any third party,” Wenbin stressed.  According to Wenbin, the ceremony to welcome the Yuan Wang 5 was attended by a “representative of the President”. However, when contacted, the President’s Secretariat told The Sunday Morning that there was no representative sent to the ceremony.    Regional security   Following permission given for the Yuan Wang 5, Sri Lanka last week signalled a closer security relations orbit with India.  President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in an interview with the Economist last week said: “We see India as the net security provider in the area. And then all other countries can also be present as long as it doesn’t lead to rising tensions or increase the rivalry between states.” The statement comes in the wake of India donating a Maritime Patrol Aircraft to Sri Lanka on Monday (15), based on lengthy negotiations between both countries, following a request made by Sri Lanka in 2018, when Wickremesinghe was the then Prime Minister.   Wickremesinghe told the Economist that Sri Lanka needed to be clear on its policies and work closely with all parties to ensure that great power rivalries, like that of the Taiwan Straits, South China Sea, and Ukraine did not migrate to the Indian Ocean, causing instability. “But I think we have to face up to that situation and work with everyone. Sri Lanka, of course, has a special relationship with India, where we have to look after each other’s interests. But most countries in the Indian Ocean want to stay out of the power rivalry. So, we have to be clear about that and say what our policies are,” Wickremesinghe stated.  He opined that there were many lessons other countries could learn from how Sri Lanka handled great power rivalry. “There’ll be something to learn from what we have done and from what we haven’t done,” he said.    Policy consistency and legislation    Veteran diplomat and former Foreign Secretary H.M.G.S. Palihakkara told The Sunday Morning that Sri Lanka needed to be predictable in its actions and consistent in its policies to navigate out of the economic crisis it has walked into. “We could have handled this matter better,” Palihakkara said.  In a 2019 lecture at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), Palihakkara stressed the need for general consensus among policymakers to formulate a robust foreign policy framework for the short to medium term.  He also pointed out that Sri Lanka should formulate an improved vessel port call policy which should be clearly communicated to all countries, so that they were aware of Sri Lanka’s reasoning behind decisions taken.  “Sri Lanka’s challenge is to fashion this Chinese input without a military footprint so that we do not get sucked into the looming strategic rivalry in the Indo-Pacific in any form, either hard power or soft power. A good start will be the public articulation of an enlightened port call policy – a policy that will inter alia invite all vessels plying the Indo-Pacific waters to visit us to boost our port incomes, barring those on overt or covert conflict-related missions and those carrying nuclear weapons,” Palihakkara opined.  Palihakkara’s views on the need for new legislation and policy consistency were echoed by former diplomat and Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute (LKI) Executive Director Dr. D.L. Mendis.  Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Dr. Mendis stated that Sri Lanka needed to be proactive in updating legislation, ensuring compliance, and clearly communicate the procedures and rules Sri Lanka utilises for vessels to call at her ports. “This will not be the last time something like this may happen; we need to learn and adapt,” Dr. Mendis said.


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