Some medical professionals state that Sri Lanka is on the verge of the Covid-19 “fourth wave”. Do you agree with this statement and how do you interpret the current situation?
One recurring and sensational theme for Covid-19 coverage by the media are firm predictions of second, third, or fourth waves of the epidemic – this at times, without considering the appropriateness of forecasting waves in a coronavirus pandemic. We frequently see officials and organisations try to base their decisions depending on the “waves”.
The term “wave” comes from the 1889-92 Spanish Flu outbreak that had different phases which are supposed to have occurred over multiple years. The pandemic infected 500 million people worldwide and killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people. The virus first appeared in the spring of 1918 but appears to have mutated when it surged again in the fall, making for a deadlier second wave.
According to WHO, “in order to say one wave is ended, the virus has to be brought under control and cases have to fall substantially…Then for a next wave to start, there should be a sustained rise in infections”. This pattern is yet to be observed during the current surge. In fact, Sri Lanka never really had a first wave. What was observed till late 2020 was a series of clusters separated by time and location.
Therefore, making absolute statements of certainty about “waves” is unwise, given the current substantial uncertainties and novelty of the evidence. The entire debate over whether or not we will see a fourth wave is premature. We should not get caught up in whether there's a wave or not because that misses the whole point. The focus now should be actively preventing the current outbreak. What is rational is to focus on control of the epidemic by following public health principles and scientific approach.