• Monsoons have, and will have an impact on our food and energy security calculus
• Climate resilience should be based on scientific analysis and professional planning, not political points of view
• Geopolitical competition in the Indian Ocean will only rise

The year 2026 will be another new year full of happenings, disruptions and surprises. This assessment is an attempt to forecast what 2026 would hold for us, the island State of Sri Lanka.

Like in 2025, the Indian Ocean is going to be in the centre-stage of geostrategic and geo-economics’ competitions, and our island State is at risk of being directly and indirectly dragged into such competitions. The only way to stay neutral will be to clearly state our own national interests, so the pressuring partners can be convinced why we islanders want things the way we want it. We need to spell out our national interest.

This article analyses the internal posture (looking at the effects on internal affairs) and the external posture (by looking at the Indian Ocean as a whole) in forecasting likelihood, probability, and the proactive measures we may take in preparing for these oceanic-induced effects.

What would be the Internal Effects?

The sea-level rise as predicted and widely discussed in global forums will not be the foremost risk, as islanders (we sometimes forget that we are), will face in 2026, but the freak weather patterns and the changing cycle of climatic conditions.

As experienced by Cyclone Ditwah’s trail of destruction, the changing dynamics of regional climate cycles would bring us disasters and unforeseen economic and social calamities on the island. The rainfall, even that of unprecedented scale like annual rainfall pouring within a couple of hours, would trigger mud-slides, land-slides, floods, and damage the crop cycle of ours, disrupting the order that we are used to and increasing wide socio-political challenges to those in Government. The El-Nino effect and the La Niña effect, combined with temperature variations of the ocean currents, will have unforeseen effects on our livelihood in 2026. This island State’s climate is dictated by the oceanic space around us, and the two monsoon seasons remain the base for our food security and energy security.

Thus, rains as well as droughts will affect our energy consumption/generation mix, cost of living and many interconnected activities such as education. The siltation and sedimentation of internal reservoirs and rivers will reduce the water-carrying capacities of these water-bodies, thereby the risk of floods in river valleys will likely increase.

Therefore, it is prudent the Government agencies in charge of managing the water, reservoirs, rivers, and food production look at matters in advance and in a proactive manner, and take action accordingly. However, there is a question about whether we have budgeted these for such in 2026?  As the 2026 budget was made in mid-2025, was the wisdom to manage the natural disasters overridden by the political aspirations?

For example, our rivers, today have more run-off from the rains and the flooding, thereby reducing the water carrying capacity and the discharging capacity. This run-off, now deposited in the riverbeds and may be visible in river bends and in the flat terrain, needs to be removed so that the rivers stay in their present courses of flow. The removal of sand in the North-Eastern Monsoon area can wait till until next April, but the South-Western Monsoon area can be undertaken, and the sand removal process can continue onwards. Otherwise, when the effect of next freak-weather hits the island, it will demand unplanned spending of Government reserves destined to pay the debt defaulted so far. Let us be proactive.

The water retention areas in the urban landscape need to be dredged and streamlined to manage the water flow, and this is the ideal time to flush out the stagnated water bodies around the cityscape, bringing serenity and health to the complete ecosystems. The Government agencies that are responsible for these affairs need vision, pre-planning, and proactive engagement in making this island State get ready for 2026.

Let us get ready for Monsoon patterns, and that applies to our fishing industry too. The likelihood of storm surges and rough weather in coastal areas is high with the changing dynamics of the oceanographic parameters. We are not in a position to change these parameters as such is beyond our control. No matter how we plant trees on land will influence oceanic parameters, as such is dictated by the vast oceanic space. Surely, when 70% of the earth is covered by oceans, which will dictate the balance 30% of landmass. But what we can do is to improve our ability to grasp the changing patterns (through science and analysis) to make timely decisions (informed decision making) through the credible governing system (where professionalism and credibility take priority over the political viewpoint).

Looking at maritime connectivity through ports and harbours, it is likely that our prime port, the Port of Colombo, may lose its ranking to other competing ports in the region. This is not due to loss of cargo volume but to our own mismanagement in not effectively addressing the congestion. Thus, the responsible Government agencies will have to come out of their silo and egos to work collaboratively to clear the congestion, make the flow of cargo movement on land more streamlined in this era of digitisation, where connectivity on land is our biggest obstacle and not the connectivity at sea.

Surely the Sri Lanka Ports Authority, the Customs and the Industry need to work in unison at the operational level, as at a higher level, all claim that each one is correct and it is the other party at fault. This inward-looking approach will cost our maritime industry credibility. Our Shipping status is going to get affected if not already being affected. It is because of our inability to adapt to the global shipping dynamics. Despite being an island State, we do not have the leverage and the hold of flag-state influence, whereas Mongolia, being a landlocked country, exercise more influence over us in the global shipping industry. Sri Lanka’s protectionist regulators’ vision hinders our local shipping industries from investing in global or regional shipping, as we have not signed many IMO protocols and procedures! Thus, in 2026, Sri Lanka will continue to blame regional competitors when it is our own procedures and acts that are to be blamed for not being able to penetrate the shipping industry beyond mere service provider status.

Sri Lanka’s maritime jurisdiction is going to come under fire, losing its credibility built since the conflict time, because the State has not invested in our Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). This is despite having platforms and systems to expand our ability to keep the maritime

space under monitoring and surveillance, because the national budgets have not allocated the finances to replace and upgrade our coastal and high-sea coverage. And the bureaucratic producers hinder our outreach capacity. For example, we do not extend our newly developed maritime air surveillance capacities to encompass the region, not to cover all corners of the Indian Ocean, but to cover the area of our national interest, such as Maldivian waters. The Maritime Patrolling aircraft that we were donated are capable of reaching the Maldives, and with collaborative arrangements, we can extend our capacity, reach and also our offer to support the regional neighbourhood. In doing so, we are better informed MDA-wise, strengthen regional security architecture and gain more agency to assert our interests. However, we are yet to think beyond our noses and act with long-term vision.

What would be the External Effects?

The Indian Ocean is going to be a contested ocean in 2026. The geopolitical competition will only increase. Despite President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy 2025 keep Western Hemisphere as the priority, this is merely in the text only. The USA will attack, engage, and dominate where it matters for them in securing its national interests. And in the Indian Ocean, they have a national interest; the Diego Graca atoll and vital lines of shipping. The only country that can influence and keep the USA at bay in the Indian Ocean will be India; thus, India will also try to aggressively push their influence widely and dominate regions where they feel necessary. With all global players arming their Navies with more ships and increasing the capacities of unmanned vehicles, both aerial and Underwater, there will be less respect for maritime borders and rule-based order (a term Americans themselves introduced). There will be no rules if American interests are at stake, and it will be the same scenario for other global players as well.

The Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Yemen, Bab-al-Mandeb strait, and the northern part of the western Indian Ocean are likely to continue to be a flashpoint! With Israel accepting the brake-away Somaliland (surely because of USA as the Port of Berbera of Somaliland is the focus), and UAE stepping up their regional reach to fund, replacing the Saudi Arabia (who used to be the reach-out earlier with Wahabism and funding), the rise of proxies and the non-state actors in this part of the Indian ocean will have a overall effect on the Indian ocean. This particular region, with Houthis in Yemen, Al Shabab in Somalia, and rising terrorism in Africa, would pose a threat to economic prosperity and global order. With this new nation, supposed to be the 55th State in the African Continent, comes a set of security challenges in this region with possible consequences in the Arabian sub-continent.

This emerging security-in-focus sea-scape will be an opportunity for Sri Lanka Ports, as the vital strait is under tremendous risk for shipping as well as for the submarine cables that connect the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. With Berbera harbour getting the attention of the USA, the East African ports and harbours, such as Mombasa will have to compete to retain their connectivity. That will prompt them to develop, improve efficiency and better manage the ports in serving the East African region, and these present a commercial opportunity for the Sri Lankan business industry to reach out as subsidiaries to more prominent Western and Indian origin Port Management industries that already dominate the port management.

Thus, a focus on Maritime security will be much needed in 2026, and how far Sri Lanka would want to exploit the emerging regional posture depends on our political will, our capacity to reach out to the world, and our ability for effective foresight. Sri Lanka must be proactive in the face of such regional and global developments.

First, Sri Lanka needs to engage the immediate neighbourhood; India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and the Maldives to secure its own national interest, whilst continuing to engage the global players such as the USA and China in the maritime space. The Government must use its tier-II level engagements to keep the balancing posture correct and, more importantly, use meritocracy over political dependency to succeed in engaging the maritime space for 2026.

The islands of the Indian Ocean are likely to prioritise their national interests in managing the oceans, thereby likely to group with like-minded nations. Sri Lanka, having already lost the opportunity to lead the region as the Chair of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), simply because there was no political will to do so, will not be able to lead from the head table. However, Sri Lanka remains the choice among the stakeholders of the region to take the initiative should that be needed.

Despite all risks and threats in the maritime domain, no country would wish to jeopardise the economic aspirations, big or small conflicts, as the Ukrainian war demonstrated the complexities and end-state of matters in today’s highly competitive geo-strategic environment. The Indian Ocean should not and cannot afford to have a conflict of a regional scale in 2026. History points out that the leadership of Indian Ocean countries have so far been successful in keeping troubled matters outside the Indian Ocean from interfering in this region. But an arms race is on, the mad rush for Naval supremacy is ongoing, and so is the competition for economic superiority. Economic superiority leads to a technological edge and results in a military edge over perceived opponents.

Internal political stability within the Indian Ocean regional countries is dependent on good governance and economic well-being. In this aspect, the developments in Bangladesh are alarming. Extremism needs to be curtailed at the threshold level without making it spill over to a major security threat.

For Sri Lanka, what matters in the Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal politically is a strategic concern. This necessitates that we, as an island State, invest in our security architecture from the viewpoint of deterrence, where we manage and control our own airspace, seaspace through surveillance, monitoring and response capacity. This demands that we adopt more vigorous border control mechanisms by digitising and networking the border control agencies, locations, administration and even the tourism industry. Sri Lanka needs to deter potential extremist elements from using the island’s entry/exit points as a transit hub to spread hatred and violence, and the same goes for the narcotics trafficking situation. The year 2026 needs to be a year for connectivity, for better governance and the administration; and it is our credibility and securing the national interests that we need to be focused on, not political narratives.

Let the New Year 2026 make us, the islanders, improve our awareness of our geography, surroundings and culture.

The writer is the former Chief Hydrographer/Chief of Staff of the Sri Lanka Navy. He is an International Consultant for undersea cables and maritime Security

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The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication