• SL may not experience high-magnitude quakes, but even minor tremors could pose a threat

In the aftermath of the earthquake that hit Myanmar and Thailand, which resulted in deaths amounting to thousands, there is renewed focus on Sri Lanka’s disaster preparedness and whether the country also faces a risk of an earthquake. 

The world is facing a rapidly evolving landscape of disaster risks, driven by climate change, environmental degradation, and increasing human encroachments into high-risk zones. The question therefore emerges: is Sri Lanka prepared to face a disaster like an earthquake?

While Sri Lanka enjoys relative safety from major earthquakes due to its location within the stable Indo-Australian plate, experts warn that rapid urbanisation and poor construction practices have created alarming vulnerabilities.

The island may not experience high-magnitude quakes, but even minor tremors, which have become more frequent in recent years, could prove disastrous due to widespread unauthorised construction, substandard building materials, and lack of seismic-resistant designs.

Disaster Management Centre (DMC) Director – Preparedness Chathura Liyanaarachchi observed: “The real threat isn’t the earthquake itself, but how our buildings and infrastructure will respond when the ground moves.”

With climate change potentially altering geological stress patterns and Sri Lanka’s cities continuing to expand vertically, the nation’s sense of seismic security may soon face a reality check.

“Our geological advantage doesn’t eliminate risk entirely,” cautioned National Building Research Organisation (NBRO) Director General Dr. Asiri Karunawardena, noting that many structures, especially in densely populated urban areas, lacked the reinforcement to withstand even moderate shaking. 

Compounding the danger, unchecked development on unstable slopes and floodplains increases the likelihood of secondary disasters like landslides if tremors occur.

Regional preparedness

Liyanaarachchi has been coordinating disaster response efforts beyond Sri Lanka’s borders. Currently engaged in discussions with United Nations (UN) agencies, the DMC is exploring ways to support Myanmar and Thailand in their ongoing disaster recovery operations.

“We are working with various entities, including the UN, to determine how Sri Lanka can contribute. While we have response teams and equipment ready, we must ensure that only trained personnel are deployed,” Liyanaarachchi stated.

Sri Lanka has a history of proactive disaster response. During the Nepal earthquake, the country was among the first responders, deploying aid via a C-130 aircraft and commercial flights. However, while it has demonstrated regional solidarity, the question remains: how prepared is Sri Lanka for disasters within its own borders?

Although earthquakes are not a primary concern for Sri Lanka, minor tremors are not uncommon. The Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB) actively monitors seismic activity and issues alerts when necessary. Tremors have recently been reported in Monaragala and areas surrounding the Kotmale Dam, prompting risk assessments and preparedness drills, according to Liyanaarachchi.

“Sri Lanka benefits from its location on the stable Indo-Australian plate, positioned approximately 1,000 km from the nearest active tectonic boundary, the Sunda Arc, which forms part of the seismically volatile Pacific Ring of Fire. 

“This considerable distance from major subduction zones and fault lines means the island is spared from the devastating high-magnitude earthquakes that regularly strike neighbouring countries like Indonesia. However, this geological advantage does not equate to complete immunity,” Liyanaarachchi explained.

The country’s soil composition and rock formations provide some level of natural resistance against structural damage. However, he warned that poorly constructed buildings remained highly vulnerable. “The recent earthquake 1,300 km from Bangkok caused building cracks and evacuations. A similar event closer to Sri Lanka could have serious consequences,” he noted.

Ongoing measures 

The impact of climate change is becoming increasingly evident in Sri Lanka. Unprecedented weather events, such as the 2016 Sitawaka flash floods, have demonstrated the devastating consequences of erratic rainfall patterns. Within just two hours, 426 mm of rain fell, causing landslides that resembled a tsunami in their destruction.

“Flood cycles had previously occurred every 20-30 years in areas like Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa. However, just last year we experienced two floods within the span of the same year. Changing monsoon patterns and environmental degradation are driving these trends,” Liyanaarachchi noted.

Historically, Sri Lanka had effective land-management practices, such as drainage systems in tea estates and abundant marshy lands, that helped mitigate disaster risks. However, rampant urbanisation, deforestation, and illegal structures have exacerbated the situation, making cities more vulnerable to floods and landslides.

The National Disaster Management Plan, which has been approved by both the Cabinet and Parliament, mandates the integration of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) across all sectors. Ministries, Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), and local authorities are required to implement DRR strategies in their respective areas. Additionally, the Treasury now mandates disaster impact assessments for new project approvals.

Despite these measures, enforcement remains a challenge. “Lack of awareness, corruption, and political interference undermine enforcement efforts. Unauthorised buildings later deemed unsafe often require billions in demolition costs, which could have been avoided with stricter compliance,” Liyanaarachchi emphasised.

While Sri Lanka has a dedicated budget for disaster preparedness, there is room for improvement. The figures, revealed by Liyanaarachchi, indicate that Rs. 10 million has been allocated for disaster preparedness, a further Rs. 10 million has been allocated for conducting awareness programmes, and Rs. 300 million has been allocated for mitigation research and development.

Although NGOs and international partners provide additional resources, it is evident that more funding is needed to enhance resilience at the national level.

Dr. Karunawardena highlighted the importance of structural safety, particularly in the context of seismic activity.

“Sri Lanka is not an earthquake-prone country, but it is still important for buildings to be constructed with resilience in mind. Sri Lanka is geologically considered a seismically inactive country. We aren’t earthquake-prone and don’t expect large-scale quakes. Thus far, we have only experienced minor tremors. However, it is still important for buildings to have the capacity to resist disasters like floods, landslides, and minor tremors,” he said.

Currently, there is no mandatory seismic code in Sri Lanka. For high-rises, most structural engineers voluntarily follow guidelines from countries with similar geological conditions. Many Colombo skyscrapers incorporated design parameters for minor tremors, accounting for potential ground acceleration, Dr. Karunawardena explained. 

“We are developing Sri Lanka’s first National Building Code, which will establish minimum safety standards. Once enacted, compliance will be legally enforced,” he stated.

Enforcement of building regulations

One of the biggest issues in disaster risk management is the lack of compliance with existing regulations.

“The problem isn’t just the absence of strict laws; it’s poor enforcement. Local authorities and approving agencies must improve monitoring systems to ensure buildings are constructed according to approved designs,” Dr. Karunawardena explained.

In many cases, developers deviate from approved blueprints, adding unauthorised floors or using substandard materials, which significantly weakens structural integrity. “Properly engineered buildings rarely fail. The real problem lies in violations and weak monitoring,” the NBRO Director General added.

A key concern is the widespread disregard for the Certificate of Conformity (COC), which is legally required before a building can be occupied. However, many commercial structures continue to operate without obtaining one. 

“Local authorities must track all approved projects and take strict action against violations. Stronger oversight, not just stricter laws, is essential,” Dr. Karunawardena stressed.

Liyanaarachchi and Dr. Karunawardena both agreed that disaster preparedness required a multisectoral approach. While legal frameworks and policies are in place, there is an urgent need for better enforcement, public awareness, and political commitment to ensure long-term resilience.

“We cannot rely solely on laws. Governance, community cooperation, and accountability are just as crucial in mitigating disaster risks,” Liyanaarachchi said.

As Sri Lanka grapples with the dual challenges of climate change impacts and rapid urbanisation, the nation must urgently bolster its disaster preparedness framework. 

Critical to this effort is the full implementation of the National Building Code to mandate earthquake-resistant standards for all new constructions, particularly in vulnerable urban areas. Simultaneously, authorities need to strengthen enforcement mechanisms to eliminate dangerous unauthorised construction practices that currently circumvent safety regulations.

Public awareness campaigns must be expanded to educate communities about disaster risks and preparedness measures, creating a culture of safety from the ground up. Financial commitment is equally vital. Increased budgetary allocations for preparedness and mitigation initiatives would prove far more cost-effective than post-disaster rehabilitation spending. 

Finally, establishing robust inter-agency coordination systems will ensure swift, organised responses when disasters strike. Comprehensive measures such as these, suggested by Liyanaarachchi and Dr. Karunawardena, would not only address immediate vulnerabilities but also build long-term resilience as Sri Lanka faces an uncertain climate future with more frequent and intense extreme weather events.