• Rains expected to give way to prolonged dry spell 

Local authorities have been placed on high alert as several climate phenomena such as the El Niño effect, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the northeast monsoon are expected to bring heavy rainfall through December before plunging parts of the country into a prolonged dry spell starting early next year, according to the Disaster Management Centre (DMC). 

Speaking to The Sunday Morning, DMC Director General Maj. Gen. (Retd) Sampath Kotuwegoda confirmed that monthly multi-stakeholder meetings had been activated under the guidance of the Presidential Secretariat to mitigate potential climate-induced disasters. 

“We predict above-average rainfall for October and November, which is expected to happen alongside the El Niño effect,” Kotuwegoda stated, warning that the wet conditions could persist well past the traditional monsoon window. 

“If the IOD becomes positive in December, rainfall can be expected within the month as well. As the northeast monsoon also activates during the same period, we expect rain in October, November, and December.” 

With heavy rainfall anticipated across multiple provinces, the National Building Research Institute (NBRI) has intensified surveillance across vulnerable regions. According to the Ministry of Defence, 14 districts have been flagged for high landslide risks, with dedicated monitoring offices operating across 10 of those districts. 

The DMC’s situation report further highlights that nearly 2,500 people and around 650 families across the island had been affected by the heavy rain, with one missing person, two injured people, and two deaths having been recorded from 18 to 24 September. Nearly 250 houses are recorded to have been partially damaged during the time period, with two more reportedly fully damaged. The centre has recorded 97 people taking refuge at present across four safe locations: three in Kandy and one in Nuwara Eliya. 

According to Kotuwegoda, approximately 3,000 residents living in high-risk zones have been formally identified and will receive targeted early warnings instructing them to evacuate should rainfall thresholds be crossed. 

Looking ahead to early 2027, he further cautioned that the island must prepare for a sharp shift in weather patterns. While positive IOD conditions could extend intermittent rains into January, official forecasts indicate a sharp reduction in precipitation starting in February. 

“The weather will be dry from February to April, with low rainfall currently predicted for the region,” the DMC Director General said. “The general picture is that it will rain in November and December, followed by a decrease in rainfall in January and a definite dry spell from February through April, which could regionally extend through September.” 

Despite the projected weather extremes, Kotuwegoda reassured the public that key inter-agency bodies – including the Mahaweli Authority and its Water Management Secretariat, Irrigation Department, Department of Wildlife Conservation, Forest Department, and DMC – were fully coordinated to manage national water reserves and agricultural supply lines. He added that contingency plans were already in place should impacts escalate. 

As of Friday (25), the Irrigation Department had recorded rising water levels of the Kehelgamu Oya in Norwood, Gin Gaga in Thawalama, Kuda Ganga in Kalawellawa, and Nilawala Ganga in Thalgahagoda, with the latter two causing minor floods. Minor floods have also been recorded in association with the Nilawala Ganga in Panadugama and Gin Ganga in Baddegama.