- Global agencies warn event could become one of the strongest in decades
El Niño conditions are expected to emerge in the coming months, with the Meteorology Department warning that a strong El Niño event could disrupt monsoon wind patterns and reduce rainfall in several parts of Sri Lanka.
Preethika Jayakody, a meteorologist at the Department of Meteorology specialising in climatology and climate change studies, said that although no El Niño condition was currently present, forecasts indicated that conditions were likely to develop after June.
“There is around a 62% probability of El Niño developing during the June–August period,” she warned.
Jayakody told The Sunday Morning that if a strong El Niño condition were to emerge, it could affect monsoon wind patterns and rainfall distribution in certain regions of the country.
“If there is a strong El Niño condition, our monsoon wind pattern will be broken, leading to below-normal rainfall in the Kandy and Nuwara Eliya Districts,” she said.
However, Jayakody noted that there were currently no major concerns regarding drought conditions later this year, as the southwestern parts of the country were expected to receive rainfall through the southwest monsoon in May. She also stated that forecasts would be continuously updated with the availability of new climate data.
According to the Meteorology Department’s latest forecast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to continue through May to July, with approximately a 55% probability.
The department stated that El Niño conditions were expected to emerge during the June–August period and persist at least until the end of the year.
As ENSO conditions strongly influence rainfall variability over South Asia and Sri Lanka, the evolution of El Niño conditions will be closely monitored throughout the season.
The forecast had been developed using outputs from global climate prediction models together with assessments of prevailing large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The Meteorology Department stated that it would continue monitoring changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the Indian Ocean, as the IOD remained one of the major climate drivers affecting Sri Lanka’s monsoon rainfall.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates, there is about an 80% chance of El Niño developing by July.
Sea temperatures in key El Niño zones of the equatorial Pacific are rapidly rising, while an enormous pool of abnormally warm water is building beneath the surface. Several leading weather agencies have predicted that Pacific temperatures could surge 2.5°C or more above average later this year – exceptionally high projections.
Only three El Niño events – in 1982/’83, 1997/’98, and 2015/’16 – have breached 2°C since the first major El Niño recorded in the modern era in 1877/’78.
UK Met Office Head – Monthly to Decadal Prediction Adam Scaife said this El Niño could become the strongest in decades or “even be of record strength”.
– By Danara Kulathilaka