“To finish a work? To finish a picture? What nonsense! To finish it means to be through with it, to kill it, to rid it of its soul, to give it its final blow, the coup de grace for the painter as well as for the picture”
Spanish artist Pablo Picasso
The quote from Picasso has a symbolic meaning that shocked the geopolitics of South Asia in the Asia-Pacific region. The picture depicted in the quote is of the South Asian region. However, South Asian drawing consists of confusion where the artist plays a huge role. Moreover, the role of the artist is to be questioned due to the mystification of it. South Asian States have faced many uprisings, anti-Government protests, and regime changes in the past few decades. Beginning from the Pakistani regime change in 2022, along the way to the Aragalaya 2022 in Sri Lanka (a public movement that sought the resignation of the then Government led by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and a system change), leading to the recent protests and regime change in Bangladesh this year, a new geopolitical phenomenon emerged.
Although there are fundamentals and domestic sociopolitical and economic factors empowering the protests and the regime changes, the consideration of geopolitics behind those changes is a grey area that is yet to be uncovered.
South Asia’s geopolitical journey
The history of South Asia, which comprises India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, and the Maldives, is extensive and sophisticated, characterised by periods of tranquillity and substantial geopolitical unrest. To understand the current state of affairs, it is crucial to scrutinise pivotal historical occurrences and their enduring consequences. Geopolitical turmoil such as the Indo-Pakistani wars, the Indo-China war, the Bangladesh liberation war, the Sikkim annexation and ethnic insurgencies are numerous geopolitical conflicts that shaped the South Asian geopolitical identity. As such conflicts attract ‘great power rivalry’, the region has braced geopolitical cold war influences throughout its history. The “South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)” is a result of the South Asian geopolitical corporation which was significant to South Asia in the late 1990’s and the early 2000’s. SAARC sought to create a “better climate of understanding” and foster cooperation among Member States. South Asia consists of a history of geopolitical peace and unrest as well. As the past has shaped the geopolitics of South Asia, it is important to understand how the current events have unfolded. Therefore, after all, as the famous American writer Mark Twain says, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. The incidents in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have impacted the current geopolitics of South Asia, which leads to a new perspective and investigation on how the future of geopolitics in South Asia will look like.
Although there are fundamentals and domestic socio-political and economic factors empowering the protests and the regime changes, the consideration of geopolitics behind those changes is a grey area that is yet to be uncovered.
Identifying the causes
South Asian countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka underwent recent changes in their governance, as popular discontent and regime changes, for the reason lies upon domestic causes. The three countries that underwent changes are different, contrasting to each other. For instance, according to the United States Institute of Peace (2023), one of the main reasons for uprisings and turmoil in Pakistan, is the political conflict between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Government and former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Moreover, in reference to the United Kingdom-based British Broadcasting Corporation (2024), the reasons for Sri Lankan protests and uprising were based upon the economic collapse while the scenario in Bangladesh was related to forcing the Government to abolish quotas in civil service jobs. These scenarios were the main reasons to fuel discontent within the said countries.
Despite these domestic causes, the fact of the involvement of a third-party intervening cannot be left over, as these States play a crucial role in the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, it is imperative to analyse how the global powers, particularly the regional power India viewed this following scenario taking place.
India’s view
India, is the largest State in the South Asian region, as well as the neighbouring State to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan.
India, as the most populous and largest country in South Asia, undoubtedly wields considerable geopolitical influence over its neighbouring nations. This impact is multifaceted and stems from various sources, including its economic prowess, formidable military capabilities, cultural appeal, and historical connections. India’s geopolitical view towards South Asia is based on a history-based philosophical view. As part of the ‘Arthashastra’ manifesto by the ancient philosopher ‘Chanakya’, India’s geopolitical strategy and view on South Asia is about maintaining its influence within the region. In reference to the Sri Lanka Guardian (2023), the concept of ‘Akhand Bharat’ emerged in India’s strategic thinking after Independence, often referred to as ‘national rejuvenation’. This idea aimed to elevate India’s status to a global power, following centuries of serfdom under colonialism. In the 1930s, some advocated for the confederation of India, which embodied the idea of ‘Akhand Bharat’. Akhand Bharat advocates for a greater India by expanding its territory to the entire South Asian region, by including all South Asian States. According to the United States-based private media network Cable News Network (2023), this has rattled many South Asian States by increasing scepticism towards India, as well as fuelling anti-Indian rhetoric among the South Asian States populous. Although excluding some of the Indian Government officials advocating for Akhand Bharat, the Indian States have not fully agreed to or disagreed with such an envisioning.
However, it is important to understand that India is using such rhetoric to maintain its sphere of influence within the South Asian States. According to the Taihe Institute (2022), as for the framework of the ‘Neighbourhood First’ foreign policy, it tries to keep the South Asian States within its orbit in geopolitical influence, but the ways of maintaining such actions often require a geopolitical cost. For example, the political changes in Nepal and Sri Lanka have resulted in more favourable leadership for India. Additionally, in reference to The Economic Times (2024), India’s actions in maintaining its interest in the region have their costs, such as when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) expressed dissatisfaction with India for providing shelter to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after she left Dhaka and arrived in India. Some scholars argue that India’s actions are purely based on a defensive geopolitical purpose, such as countering China’s presence in the region for China is also considered a State which has huge geopolitical influence in the South Asian regional States.
Therefore, India’s action in the South Asian region has consequential effects to the geopolitical climate of South Asia.
Geopolitical involvements in SA
As the latest regime change and Government uprising happened in Bangladesh where Hasina was ousted, she allegedly accused the United States of America, alleging their involvement in her removal from power. In reference to Newswire (2024), she further accused the United States (US) by claiming that the US requested her to hand over Bangladesh's Saint Martin’s Island, which she rejected, causing her to face an upheaval. In addition to the Bangladeshi uprising and regime change, the former Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa who was also ousted by an anti-Government protest uprising claimed in a book he authored named ‘The Conspiracy to oust me from the Presidency’, indirectly allegedly accusing the US for sponsoring the protest and regime change by stating “the biggest damage to democracy in any developing nation comes not from global powers that are said to have authoritarian forms of Government but from certain wealthy developed democracies and their paid fifth columnists”.
Moreover, similar to the Bangladesh and Sri Lanka sagas, Khan, who was also ousted by a Parliamentary coup d’état, allegedly stated that the US was involved in ousting his Government and the swift regime change in Pakistan. It is clear that these countries’ former leaders who were ousted allegedly accuse the US of executing regime changes, despite citing such without any proof or evidence. However, it is also important to note the fact that the significance of these three States was that they were also considered leaders who had warmer ties with China, Russia, and India. Despite the power rivalry in the South Asian region between India and Pakistan, Khan tended to have good ties with Premier Narendra Modi’s India.
It is important to analyse how these alleged US regime changes benefit the US involvement in the region. As for the common understanding, the shorter picture of the possible scenario is the US willingness to disengage China and Russia’s involvement in the region. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh were heavily invested in by both China and Russia, for instance, in reference to Al Jazeera (2023), Russia built Bangladesh’s first nuclear plant, as well as in reference to The Diplomat (2024), China conducted military drills with Bangladesh, while Khan met Russian President Vladimir Putin amidst the Ukrainian invasion as mentioned in Al Jazeera (2022), and these are some depictions where both China and Russia seems to be engaging in the region. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are crucial States for China’s economic supply line which lies through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), where Pakistan plays a crucial part, while Bangladesh plays a crucial part for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) in connecting Indian Ocean trade routes to China. Therefore, as retaliation for Chinese and Russian encroachment in the South Asian region, which is also viewed as an encroachment to the Indian Ocean Region, the US might have been prompted to take swift geopolitical action in order to protect and strengthen its influence within the region.
Another argument from geo-political commentators on analysing the past few geopolitical incidents which includes the deteriorating US-India relations, is the long-term perspective of containing India geopolitically. As for seeing a developed China that was helped by the US to contain the Soviet Union, the US has eyed India as a potential partner to contain China’s influence. As part of the Indo-Pacific strategy, the US values India as a strategic partner, where they also consider India as a valuable partner in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). However, unlike the rest of the QUAD countries, India’s foreign policy is based on a non-aligned stance. This contradicts a difference between the US allies and its partners’ foreign policy, as their respective foreign policies are considered aligning towards US interests. In reference to a research journal article paper authored by Vladmir Lukin (1984), China was once considered a friendly State and a valuable partner towards the US in containing the Soviet influence in the Asia region, which China benefitted through gaining economic advantages; but that the tide has changed since China is challenging the US-led global political order. Similarly, in reference to the Indian Express (2024), about Modi’s visit to Russia, the US has made public its frustration with the visit, with the US Envoy to India commenting that the relationship should not be taken for granted and stating that in “times of conflict”, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy that the US expects for a rising India in the coming decades which can challenge its interests in the Indian Oceanic region, thereby paving the way for a possibility of the US wanting to establish a foothold in South Asian States to contain India for the future.
Conclusion
South Asia is a historical spawn of geopolitical games and competition. From the beginning of colonisation, all the way through the ‘great game’ to the Cold War, South Asian States have endured and braced the storm of geopolitics.
The recent uprisings and anti-Government protests, which face similar imperatives as the ‘Arab Spring’ are the new challenges to State governance. It is important to understand how geopolitics can shape the governance of a nation and how it can influence Governments to take the decision-making process, leading to increasing volatility in State affairs. The stability of a State in a region is crucial for regional geopolitical stability. As the recent uprisings and anti-Government protests charter regime changes for those that are democratically elected, it is important to address South Asian States like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka’s domestic factors on geopolitical influence and vulnerability. The future geopolitical landscape of South Asia is uncertain, as both cooperation and economic integration are possible but hindered by a history of conflict and mistrust. Therefore, it is important to analyse the geopolitics of great power rivalry within the South Asian region and address the geopolitical vulnerability through regional cooperation and mutual understanding of regional South Asian States.
(The writer is a Research Intern at the Institute of National Security Studies under the Ministry of Defence, and the opinions expressed are his own and not necessarily reflective of the Institute or the Ministry)
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication