• El Niño may bring dry spell in early next year
• Battery storage capacity to be increased
• Higher July rainfall boosts hydropower generation

The Energy Ministry, which expects a potential electricity generation shortfall of around 200 megawatts (MW) during the first quarter of next year (2027) due to possible dry weather conditions associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon, is planning to cover the anticipated gap through increased battery storage capacity, Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka said.

Speaking to The Daily Morning yesterday (12), he said that the country had initially expected rainfall to decline during July and August, but received more rain than anticipated in July, resulting in higher water levels in reservoirs and allowing the country to generate more hydropower than originally expected.

“We expected rainfall to decrease during July and August, but we received unexpected rainfall in July. As a result, reservoirs, particularly Samanalawewa, have filled up. This has enabled the power sector to exceed its initial expectations for hydropower generation,” he said.

However, he said that the Ministry is currently preparing for a potentially difficult period in January, February, and March 2027, based on forecasts pointing to the possible development of El Niño-related conditions during that period.

“What we expect next is that there could be a problem during January, February, and March 2027. Those who provide forecasts relating to El Niño have indicated that a dry weather situation could occur during that period,” he said.

Karunathilaka added that the potential impact could amount to a shortfall of around 200 MW. He stressed, however, that this is not expected to result in a disruption to the country's electricity supply, as the main challenge would be the need to rely more heavily on diesel-fired generation to make up for the reduced contribution from hydropower.

“There won’t be a problem with the electricity supply. The problem is that we’ll have to increase diesel power generation,” he said.

To reduce that dependence on diesel generation, he said that the Ministry is currently advancing battery energy storage projects.

“We are targeting 160 MW of battery storage capacity by the end of this year (2026), with tender processes already underway for a further 250 MW and 150 MW of capacity. This storage capacity will help cover the potential generation deficit during periods when hydropower output falls. This is how we are going to deal with this issue,” he said.

Hydropower remains one of Sri Lanka's key sources of electricity generation, with reservoirs playing an important role in determining the contribution of hydroelectricity to the National Grid. Generation from hydropower plants can rise significantly when reservoir levels are high, reducing the need to operate more expensive thermal power plants, particularly diesel-fired plants. Conversely, prolonged dry weather can reduce water availability and place pressure on thermal power generation.