• Fear mounts over possible delay in 25,000 MT urea shipment due from Oman in early April
• Existing fertiliser stocks sufficient for initial phase of Yala season: Deputy Minister
• Farmers ask how 25,000-30,000 MT of urea will be sufficient when 120,000 MT needed

Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector faces renewed uncertainty as a crucial fertiliser shipment expected in April hangs in the balance amid escalating global tensions, raising concerns over supply stability and rising costs ahead of the Yala cultivation season.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Namal Karunaratne said a vessel carrying approximately 25,000 MT of urea from Oman – imported to Sri Lanka through India – was scheduled to arrive in early April but warned that geopolitical developments, particularly disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East, could delay its arrival. 

“A shipment of close to 25,000 MT is expected. However, given the current geopolitical situation, arrival schedules remain uncertain,” he told The Sunday Morning.

The warning comes as global shipping routes, including the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, face severe disruption. With nearly a third of sea-borne fertiliser shipments passing through the strait, any prolonged instability could significantly impact supply chains to import-dependent countries like Sri Lanka.

Despite the risks, Karunaratne insisted that there was no immediate fertiliser shortage. Noting that existing stocks were sufficient for the initial phase of the Yala season, particularly for the first application of urea in paddy cultivation, he said: “We have adequate quantities for now. Any issue would arise during the second stage, but we expect the shipment to arrive on time. There is a 90% probability it will,” he said.

According to the National Fertilizer Secretariat, around 30,000 MT of urea has already been released to the market, with a further 68,000 MT in reserve. Stocks of Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) and Muriate of Potash (MOP) stand at approximately 30,000 MT each.

Additional shipments are planned to bridge the gap. Officials expect 25,000 MT of urea in early April, a further 25,000 MT by around 10 April, and about 15,000 MT of MOP by the month’s end. Sri Lanka has sufficient stock of TSP at the moment, according to the National Fertilizer Secretariat.

However, agricultural experts and farmer organisations warn that official assurances may not reflect ground realities.

National Farmers’ Union Chairman Anuradha Tennakoon claimed that only a fraction of available stocks was reaching farmers, arguing that effective market supply was far below national requirements.

“When 450,000 hectares require around 120,000 MT of urea, how can 25,000–30,000 MT be sufficient?” he asked, warning of potential protests if shortages persisted.

Academics echo these concerns. University of Peradeniya Department of Agriculture Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe noted that total fertiliser demand across crops exceeded current stock levels and cautioned that global supply shocks could further strain availability.

“One-third of sea-shipped fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz. That is a serious vulnerability,” he said.

Meanwhile, prices are already under pressure. Karunaratne warned that global fuel and import cost increases were likely to drive fertiliser prices higher in the Maha season.

In response, the Government has stepped up intervention, moving to acquire 65% of privately held fertiliser stocks and expand State distribution channels, after accusing private firms of delaying market supply.

Under the current pricing mechanism, the State purchases fertiliser at Rs. 9,500 per bag and distributes it to farmers at a capped price not exceeding Rs. 11,000, significantly below private market rates of Rs. 15,000–18,000.

Authorities have also urged farmers to avoid panic buying, warning that it fuels price spikes and distorts supply.

As Sri Lanka heads into a critical cultivation period, the timing of a single shipment – and the stability of global supply routes – may prove decisive for the country’s food security in the months ahead.