The juggernaut that was Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People's Power, has lost some steam. The massive mandate that the NPP movement gained, causing a turning point in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, has visibly eroded a little, going by the results of the Local Government (LG) Elections held this week. This in no way suggests that the NPP and their ‘anti-corruption’ agenda is becoming unpopular. However, it does reflect the dynamic nature of Sri Lankan politics. While the NPP has secured a ‘win’ the public has indicated a ‘red flag’ for the NPP that the Government can’t afford to become complaisant and that the ‘honeymoon’ period of being in Government is over.

Another sobering message, one for the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) is that, while they have gained ground, the grass-roots voters still don’t view them as a viable alternative to back fully. The SJB has underperformed in some areas where they traditionally had a strong backing. The results also point to stiff competition to the SJB from the SLPP. The Opposition, which was generally slow to organise and mounted a lacklustre effort for the LG, has fared reasonably well. The SJB polled over two million votes and in the process secured victories in LG bodies in Kandy and in some of the electorates in the North and the East. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) also performed strongly in the LG Elections, showing the capacity to rebound from major defeat, a mere six months ago. The Sarvajana Balaya (SB) also secured seats in several LG bodies across the country, a noteworthy performance for a newly-formed party.

It also seems that the wave of support which the NPP gained in the North and East, and which the party highlighted as a ‘change in times’ and a step forward in reconciliation, has also back peddled during the LG polls. Despite the NPP’s efforts to appease the political needs and wants from the North and East, it seems that minority politics is returning to its usual pace and legacy party structures. The long-standing Tamil political parties who ‘lost their power’ in the North and East were keen on wrestling it back from NPP, the ‘new kids on the block.’ Some actions taken by the NPP, especially its visible reluctance to press for full operation of the 13th Amendment, may have cost them votes. ITKA member MP M.A. Sumanthiran took to social media stating on platform ‘X’ (previously twitter): “ITAK has won 43 out of 58 councils we contested in the North East without any alliance. It is a phenomenal victory, considering that #NPP claimed it had the mandate of the North after the Parliamentary Elections 2024. We thank the voters for the confidence they have placed in us.” The clear signalling from the North, the East and from many areas in the rest of the island, is indicative of the politics of ‘popular waves’; they come, and then recede, few have contributed to lasting change.

The NPP may have shot itself in the foot by neglecting many electorates during their first few months in office, only to rush in and press their well-known organisational and mobilisational power to run a campaign for LG polls.  Some long-standing JVP mid-level activists and local area representatives had over the last six months voiced concerns about the party hierarchy, suddenly becoming detached from grass-roots and mid-tier level, when they formed a Government. There was also dissatisfaction that the Government didn’t provide relief through the party apparatus which the local organisers could have used to retain the confidence of the membership. Some have complained that some of those picked to run for LG office/offices are not known and trusted by their community. Additionally, multiple missteps taken by the Government which were contradictory to their election promises would have cost them some credibility. On many occasions, especially on foreign policy and on matters related to law and order, defence and energy, the NPP Governments’ statements, lack thereof, and actions illustrated that they were ill-equipped with plans to govern, and were visibly amateurish in their approach. This reality is not lost on the public. The drop in victories and number of votes secured, is a reflection on the public’s frustration with the Government.