- Farmers complain of shortages and rationing despite official assurances
- Freight costs, Middle East tensions push urea prices sharply upward
- Experts warn Maha season may face even greater supply pressure
- Debate over long-term dependence on imported agrochemicals resurfaces
- Govt. turns to buffer stocks, subsidies, coated urea to steady supply
As tractors rolled into paddy fields across Sri Lanka for the 2026 Yala season, a different kind of anxiety travelled alongside the farmers preparing their land. It was not only the fear of drought, pests, or fluctuating paddy prices. This time, the uncertainty came packed into sacks of urea, or the lack thereof.
Across the global market, fertiliser prices are once again soaring upward, driven by a geopolitical crisis thousands of kilometres away from Sri Lankan farms.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February this year, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, has disrupted one of the world’s most critical fertiliser supply routes. Nearly half of global urea exports originate from, or move through, the Persian Gulf, and the shockwaves are now being felt in farming communities from Anuradhapura to Ampara.
What initially appeared to be another temporary market disruption has evolved into something deeper and more structural. The World Bank’s April 2026 ‘Commodity Markets Outlook’ warned that global fertiliser prices are expected to increase by 31% this year, while Bloomberg Intelligence described the current situation as a high plateau crisis rather than the sharp rise-and-fall pattern witnessed in 2022.
Urea prices in some international hubs have surged by over 70%, while energy costs, which account for the majority of ammonia production expenses, continue climbing.
For Sri Lanka, heavily dependent on imported fertiliser and still recovering from the scars of the 2021 fertiliser ban and the subsequent economic crisis, the stakes are exceptionally high.
‘We have enough stock’
Yet officials insist the country is not facing a collapse.
“We are able to manage the current situation because we previously maintained a buffer stock of 100,000 tonnes of urea,” National Fertiliser Secretariat (NFS) Director Chandana Lokuhewage told The Sunday Morning.
Lokuhewage’s assertion echoed the crisis messaging that the Government has used over the past few months, especially regarding energy supply issues like coal and fuel, where the State first claimed ‘no issues’ but later walked back the narrative.
Sitting at the centre of Sri Lanka’s fertiliser coordination efforts, Lokuhewage outlined what he described as a carefully managed balancing act between global shortages, domestic demand, and political pressure. “We calculated the fertiliser requirement for the Yala season based on our experiences from previous seasons, estimating it at 125,000 MT. Our cultivation target was 550,000 hectares,” he explained.
According to him, authorities estimated that approximately 30,000 MT of urea would be required for paddy cultivation during Yala, while another 42,000 MT would be needed for other crops. “At the beginning of the season in March, we had a stock of 100,000 MT of urea. We actually only needed another 24,000 MT,” he said.
That additional supply, however, became increasingly difficult to secure as global routes tightened. “I previously informed the media that a shipment from a company would arrive within the first two weeks of April. That shipment of 25,000 MT arrived on 10 April. It was sourced from Arab countries and brought via India.”
Even as that shipment arrived, another was already being unloaded to ensure continuity, he said. “Due to the high global demand for urea, we informed companies, and another 25,000 MT is currently being unloaded. This ensures we have sufficient stock for the Yala season.”
The logistics choke point
However, behind those assurances from the Government lies a far more fragile international market.
The World Bank noted that freight rates had transformed from a routine operational cost into what it called an “active mechanism of price enforcement”. Shipping congestion, rerouted vessels, and rising insurance costs have dramatically increased the price of transporting fertiliser globally.
For Sri Lanka, which imports the overwhelming majority of its fertiliser requirements, these logistical disruptions translate directly into higher costs. “The shipments imported on 10 April were at a higher cost,” Lokuhewage admitted, adding: “Previously, we imported at $ 650 and $ 800 per MT. Many people are unaware that prices have risen this much.”
The Government’s response has been two-fold – subsidise key fertiliser stocks for paddy farmers, while allowing the open market to function for other crops. When global prices began surging earlier this year, the Government intervened to reserve a portion of stocks for subsidised distribution.
“We met with the Minister and decided to reserve 16,665 MT from companies to be distributed at the old prices through Agrarian Service Centres,” Lokuhewage said, adding that to date, nearly 25,000 MT had been provided to farmers through this system, which relied on a coupon-based distribution mechanism.
The Cabinet subsequently approved increased subsidy payments for the 2026 Yala season, including Rs. 30,000 per hectare for major crops and Rs. 18,000 per hectare for other crops, while fixing the price of a 50 kg urea bag at Rs. 10,200.
Farmers allege persistent shortages
But while official figures paint a picture of controlled management, farmer organisations allege that the reality on the ground is far more chaotic.
At a recent media briefing, representatives from the Farmers National Convention accused the Government of failing to ensure proper access to fertiliser despite repeated assurances. “There is no fertiliser to buy in shops. Even though the Government said it would provide it, it hasn’t,” one representative alleged. “If they don’t give us fertiliser, there is no point in us farming these fields.”
Others described confusion and frustration surrounding rationed quantities. “They are telling us to take 50% of our usual usage. Then we can only use that much for our crop. What are we supposed to use for the other 50%?” another farmer questioned.
Distribution inefficiencies, too, have become another source of tension. “They bring it through agrarian services and distribute 90 kg portions. If two organisations get it today, 10 others have to wait five more days. We cannot work this way.”
The anger has also acquired political overtones. “We are the people who went to the streets to change a corrupt administration,” a farmers’ representative warned. “But now we have to beg for a price for our paddy and for fertiliser.”
The Kazakhstan controversy
The National Agrarian Unity (NAU), a farmer trade union, accused authorities of causing massive financial losses by purchasing fertiliser from Middle Eastern suppliers at significantly higher prices rather than sourcing from countries such as Kazakhstan.
NAU President Anuradha Tennakoon claimed that Sri Lanka could obtain urea from Kazakhstan at $ 200–300 per MT, while current purchases from countries such as Oman were reportedly taking place at $ 500–800.
“We have serious suspicions regarding this,” Tennakoon said. “We wonder if international trade scams are at play, where fertiliser might actually be sourced from Kazakhstan, re-bagged elsewhere, and sold to us at these higher prices.”
He argued that inflated procurement costs could ultimately burden both the Treasury and farmers. “If fertiliser is imported at $ 800 per MT, a 50 kg bag will have to be sold to farmers for Rs. 17,000–18,000. However, if it is imported from Kazakhstan at $ 290, that same bag could be provided for less than Rs. 7,000.”
The NFS, however, has strongly rejected these allegations. In a statement, the Secretariat said claims that approvals had been denied for imports from Kazakhstan were false. It stated that approvals for import requests from Kazakhstan had, in fact, been granted promptly, but no relevant company had yet succeeded in delivering shipments.
The Secretariat also pointed out that international urea prices had climbed sharply across the board, including in India, where recent prices had reportedly approached $ 900 per MT.
‘Not unique to Sri Lanka’
Former Secretary to the Ministry of Agriculture and Wayamba University Vice Chancellor Prof. Udith Jayasinghe believes the crisis must be understood primarily as a global logistics shock rather than a purely domestic policy failure.
“There is currently a logistics issue regarding fertiliser, specifically a problem with distribution. This is not something unique to Sri Lanka; it is a situation affecting other countries as well.”
According to Prof. Jayasinghe, Sri Lanka’s fertiliser supply from Arab countries has effectively contracted by around one-third due to disruptions in shipping routes. “Fertiliser coming to us from Arab countries is facing obstacles, and those ships are not arriving here. This has resulted in a reduction of our supply by about 30–35%.”
He stressed that, unlike during the economic crisis, the issue now was not a shortage of foreign exchange. “During my tenure, we had a similar issue, but the problem then was a lack of funds. Now, the issue is not a lack of money; rather, we cannot easily bring in fertiliser through the usual low-cost channels.”
Meanwhile, he noted that China, another major rice producer, had introduced a policy banning fertiliser exports during its own cultivation period in order to prioritise domestic needs. However, he suggested diplomatic ties may still help Sri Lanka secure some level of access.
“Because the current Government maintains a close and friendly relationship with China, the country has not imposed a total ban on us, but is instead reducing our quota.”
Prof. Jayasinghe said he believed Sri Lanka had avoided a deeper crisis largely because successive governments maintained buffer stocks as a policy. “Maintaining a buffer stock and an active distribution channel is Government policy; otherwise, we cannot talk about rice or stability.”
Still, he warned that the coming Maha season could prove significantly more difficult. “We have some relief for the Yala season, but for the Maha season, which is a few months away, I recommend appointing an expert committee to promote these strategies and inform the public. If we don’t, people will panic even if the supply only drops from 100% to 90%.”
The push for alternatives
The Government is already attempting to diversify both supply chains and fertiliser technologies. Lokuhewage said authorities were working diplomatically with multiple countries while simultaneously encouraging alternative products such as coated urea.
“We are also promoting coated urea to increase fertiliser efficiency. This involves a coating such as zinc, which allows for a slow release. When using normal urea, a significant portion is wasted, but coated urea is much more efficient,” he explained.
According to him, only around 60 kg of coated urea may be needed where farmers would otherwise use 100 kg of conventional fertiliser.
Prof. Jayasinghe echoed the importance of this transition. “A positive development is the start of coated urea production. This initiative, involving five or six companies, began even before the current conflict.”
He also pointed to locally-produced organic pelletised fertilisers as part of a broader adaptation strategy. “People are often wary when they hear the word ‘organic,’ but these are high-quality fertilisers,” he said, adding that this was the second-best solution, given the current global situation.
The debate
Yet for some researchers and agricultural activists, these incremental adjustments are insufficient because they fail to confront what they view as Sri Lanka’s deeper structural vulnerability – the dependence itself.
Researcher and Movement for Land and Agricultural Reform (MONLAR) Moderator Chintaka Rajapakse argued that the fertiliser crisis exposed a much broader failure within the country’s agricultural model.
“Our entire modern agriculture industry is currently dependent on external inputs,” he said. “While we think of it as ours, it has become an industry completely reliant on imported inputs, seeds, and equipment.”
According to Rajapakse, the recurring fertiliser crisis is not merely about prices or logistics, but about a system fundamentally vulnerable to global market shocks. “In 2021, the price of a 50 kg bag of urea ranged from Rs. 3,000 to as much as Rs. 45,000. Today, with the global war situation, prices have increased from Rs. 10,000 to around Rs. 15,000 or Rs. 16,000. These price fluctuations are at a level we cannot control at all.”
Rajapakse criticised both the Government and Opposition approaches for reducing the issue to political rhetoric without presenting long-term solutions. “Currently, the Government claims fertiliser is available, while the Opposition says it is not. Instead of finding real answers, this issue is pushed into a political debate for specific agendas. Neither the Government nor the Opposition has a real solution.”
Rajapakse advocated a gradual but deliberate transition towards lower-input agricultural systems based on local resources and soil regeneration. “We need a plan. Not a sudden, overnight decision like the one made by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, but a minimum three-year strategy to find an answer.”
He insisted, however, that this did not necessarily mean abandoning modern agriculture entirely, or replacing synthetic fertiliser with unrealistic quantities of compost. “This is not about the myth created by companies and some professionals that you need to dump 10, 20, or 30 MT of organic fertiliser on a plot.”
Instead, he pointed to methods focused on improving soil vitality and microbial activity. “For instance, the waste from one domestic cow can be used to create a microbial concentrate sufficient for a large area of cultivation,” he said.
Food security under pressure
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that even modest reductions in fertiliser usage could lead to disproportionately large harvest declines, because crop yields respond non-linearly to nutrient shortages.
Countries with heavy import dependence and foreign exchange vulnerabilities, including Sri Lanka, are considered especially exposed.
Compounding the uncertainty is what analysts describe as a market stalemate. Buyers across multiple countries are hesitating to place large orders due to extremely high prices, but delays in procurement could trigger even sharper shortages if demand suddenly surges before the next planting window.
For Sri Lanka, where agriculture remains deeply intertwined with food security, inflation, rural livelihoods, and political stability, the consequences extend far beyond farm economics.
Rice cultivation in districts such as Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, and Ampara remains central to the national food supply. Any sustained disruption in fertiliser availability or affordability could quickly spill into rising food prices and broader social unrest.
The shadow of 2021
Political memory still lingers heavily over the country. The 2021 fertiliser ban remains one of the most controversial agricultural policy experiments in Sri Lanka’s recent history. Introduced abruptly under former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as an overnight shift towards organic agriculture, the policy triggered widespread crop losses, farmer protests, and severe disruptions to food production before eventually being reversed.
Today, almost every stakeholder, from Government officials to agricultural activists, invokes that period as both a warning and a lesson. Prof. Jayasinghe, who served as the Agriculture Ministry Secretary at that time, stressed that any future transition must be gradual and carefully managed.
“This current crisis was not caused by a failure of Sri Lankan policy, the Government, the ministry, or the Minister; it is an external situation that has fallen upon us,” he said.
At the same time, MONLAR Moderator Rajapakse argued that the 2021 failure should not permanently shut down conversations about reducing import dependence. “The problem was not that alternatives were discussed. The problem was that it was done overnight without preparation,” he said.
An uncertain road ahead
Back at the NFS, officials remain focused on navigating immediate shortages while preparing for Maha season procurement.
The Government has already approved tenders for future imports, including a recent Cabinet-approved contract worth $ 6.9 million awarded to Singapore-based M/S Valency International Ltd. for 15,000 MT of urea.
Lokuhewage said diplomatic-level discussions were continuing with several countries to secure stable supplies before the next cultivation cycle. “We are preparing from May to import fertiliser for the next season, including the buffer stock,” he said.
But even as officials speak of tenders, quotas, and shipping routes, the deeper uncertainty remains unresolved. Global supply chains continue to tighten. Energy prices remain volatile. Freight costs are escalating. Climate variability is increasing pressure on agricultural output. And every external shock now travels rapidly into local fields.
According to Rajapakse, Sri Lanka risks reliving the same crisis repeatedly unless it systematically reduces dependence on imported agrochemicals. “Otherwise, we will be talking about this same fertiliser problem year after year,” he noted.
Meanwhile, following discussions during Vietnamese President To Lam’s visit to Sri Lanka, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced on Friday (8) that Vietnam had agreed to donate 100 MT of urea and superphosphate to Sri Lanka.