The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) was considering a larger-than-expected oil output increase yesterday (1 March), two OPEC+ sources said, after the US-Israeli war on OPEC+ member Iran and Tehran’s retaliation led to shipment disruptions in the Middle East.

OPEC+ has a history of raising oil output to cushion disruptions, but analysts said the group currently has very little spare capacity to meaningfully increase supply, except for its leader Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Riyadh has been raising oil production and exports in recent weeks in preparation for US strikes on Iran, sources told international media.

Oil, gas and other shipments from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz have come to a halt since 28 February after shipowners received a warning from Iran stating the area was closed for navigation.

OPEC+ debated a production hike of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) or more at a meeting on Sunday, sources said, exceeding the earlier expectation of 137,000 bpd.

Oil prices jumped on 27 February to $73 per barrel, the highest level since July 2025, amid fears of a wider Middle East conflict and supply disruptions through Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route accounting for over 20% of global oil transit.

Middle Eastern leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, said veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft. Analysts at Barclays also projected prices could reach $100.

Croft said the market impact of any large OPEC output increase would be limited due to insufficient production capacity outside Saudi Arabia.

The meeting involved only eight OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman. The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025, roughly 3% of global demand, before pausing increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonal weakness.

Agencies