Sri Lanka could lose the equivalent of 158,000-349,000 full-time jobs annually by 2060 as climate change intensifies workplace heat-stress, reducing productivity, according to a recent study by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The study, ‘Impacts of Heat Stress on Jobs and Productivity in Sri Lanka,’ projects annual losses equivalent to 158,000 full-time jobs under a low-emissions scenario and 349,000 under a very high-emissions scenario by 2060, compared with the 1985-2014 historical baseline. The figures represent lost working time rather than people actually dismissed from their jobs.
Climate-induced heat stress reduced Sri Lanka’s economic output by an estimated $ 6.5 billion in 2023 compared with the 1985-2014 historical baseline, according to the report. The estimate is expressed in fixed 2015 US dollars and reflects the modelled impact of heat stress on productivity.
The study estimates that heat-related lost working time was equivalent to 120,300 full-time jobs in 2023. Agriculture accounted for the largest share, equivalent to 57,230 jobs, followed by services at 26,529, manufacturing at 15,176 and construction at 13,154.
Services accounted for 41.9% of the estimated economic output reduction, followed by transport and trade at 19.3%, manufacturing at 14.1%, agriculture at 11.5% and construction at 10%, according to the data.
Excessive heat can force workers to slow their pace, take more frequent breaks or stop working to avoid health risks, reducing productive working hours. Agriculture and construction are particularly vulnerable because of the physical demands of their work, while manufacturing, services, transport and trade are also affected by heat-related productivity losses.
To address the risks, the report recommends that Sri Lanka work towards establishing national guidelines on workplace heat-stress, aligned with ILO recommendations on the prevention and mitigation of heat stress. It also highlights the relevance of ILO Convention No. 155 on occupational safety and health, which mandates workplace policies to prevent accidents and illnesses, and Convention No. 161 on occupational health services in strengthening protections for workers.
Future losses will depend partly on global greenhouse-gas emissions and the measures taken to protect workers, the study stated.
The climate projection scenarios used in the present study also introduce technical caveats. The analysis focuses on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to represent different possible global emissions and development trajectories, ranging from a low-emissions scenario to a very high-emissions scenario.