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Heat to continue till 2 Sept

3 years ago

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The Department of Meteorology forecast that the hot weather the country is experiencing at present will prevail till 2 September, with temperatures increasing from 35-40℃ in the North, North Central, East, and Uva Provinces. The probabilistic temperature forecast for the August, September, and October season (ASO) 2020 for Sri Lanka issued by the Centre for Climate Change Studies and Research Division, considering the prevailing global climate conditions, forecasts from different global climate models (GCM) and statistical downscaling of output using the “climate predictability” tool. The consensus forecast for August to October 2020 concluded that there would be near or little below-normal rainfall over Sri Lanka for the ASO season. While there is a chance to receive above-normal rainfall in southwestern parts and near-normal elsewhere in the country during August 2020, there is a higher chance to receive above-normal rainfall over most parts during the month of September 2020. There is no clear signal over Sri Lanka for the month of October and it indicates that there are equal chances to receive below, about, or above-normal rainfall during October 2020. However, the possibility for below-normal rainfall is higher, if La Nina is developed.  In addition, the predictability is also limited due to strong day-to-day atmospheric variability caused by the passage of the synoptic scale systems such as lows and depressions, etc. and intraseasonal oscillations such as Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO). There is a higher chance of experiencing slightly above-normal maximum temperatures in the Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Colombo, and Kurunegala Districts; below-normal maximum temperatures in the Mannar, Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Galle Districts; and near-normal maximum temperature in the Kandy District for the ASO season. Accordingly, there is a higher chance of experiencing slightly above-normal minimum temperatures in the Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Galle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, and Mannar Districts during the ASO season. 

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