The recent announcement by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) proclaiming that Sri Lanka had achieved 70% Renewable Energy (RE) generation in June has faced intense backlash from energy experts and industry insiders, who warn that the claim is misleading and risks creating a false impression about the country’s progress towards its clean energy goals.

While the CEB celebrated this milestone as a major breakthrough in Sri Lanka’s renewable energy journey, renewable energy experts and senior engineers within the board argue that the announcement is premature and does not reflect sustained or reliable progress.

Their main concern is that the 70% figure is based on a single month’s data, heavily influenced by unusually high hydroelectric generation due to favourable weather conditions, rather than on stable, long-term achievement.

“To claim success on the basis of one month’s performance is not only scientifically inaccurate but also misleading to the public and policymakers,” said a senior engineer involved with the CEB who requested anonymity. 

“Renewable energy targets are about consistent performance over time, not temporary spikes driven by good rainfall. If dry conditions return, as they inevitably will, the renewable share will drop sharply.”

The senior engineer also argued that such announcements risked giving the public and Government officials a false sense of security, suggesting that the country’s energy transition was further along than it really was. This could undermine urgency for continued investments in diverse renewable technologies and infrastructure upgrades.

“By overstating progress, the CEB is not only raising unrealistic expectations but potentially jeopardising long-term energy planning as well,” said the engineer. “Policy decisions should be based on steady trends, not short-lived weather-dependent fluctuations.”

Adding to what the CEB senior engineer stated, National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) Deputy President and NCCSL Power and Energy Council Chairman Lakmal Fernando stressed that just because the CEB had achieved a 70% mark in RE due to a spike in hydro generation in June alone, it did not imply that the country had achieved its 70% target as a whole.

He stressed that the statement was misleading and not true at a policy level, adding that it could not simply be levelised as having achieved the 70% target set to be achieved by 2030.

Generation in June/July

According to official electricity generation data from 1-29 June, Sri Lanka produced a total of 1,392.43 GWh of electricity, with renewable sources accounting for the majority at 1,001.13 GWh, representing 71.9% of the total generation. 

Fossil fuels supplied the remaining 28.1%, generating 391.3 GWh. The daily generation profile showed renewables consistently dominating the mix, although with minor day-to-day fluctuations. Fossil fuel use was more variable, peaking in the early part of the month before stabilising towards the end.

Hydropower was the largest single contributor among renewables, generating 604.57 GWh, or 43.42% of total output. Other renewable sources included wind (7.81%), mini-hydro (9.41% combined), and solar power (10.85% combined), with smaller shares from biomass and waste heat. Within fossil fuels, coal was the dominant source, producing 347.72 GWh (24.97%), followed by oil from Independent Power Producers (IPP) and CEB plants.

Data from Thursday (3) shows a daily net generation of 52.52 GWh, with renewables contributing 66.83% (35.1 GWh) and fossil fuels 33.17% (17.42 GWh). Peak demand that day reached 2,721 MW, met with 62.9% from renewables and 37.1% from fossil fuels. 

Hydropower was again the main renewable source, producing 22.78 GWh, while coal-fired plants generated 12.9 GWh. Other renewable contributions came from solar and mini-hydro power producers, wind farms, and a small amount from biomass. Fossil fuel generation included thermal oil plants operated by both the CEB and IPPs.

CEB plans 

Despite these monthly figures, the CEB’s long-term plans highlight the need for a significant expansion in renewable energy capacity to meet national targets. 

To reach the Government’s goal of 70% RE by 2030, total capacity from other renewable sources (excluding major hydro) must grow from 2,447 MW in 2020 to 5,903 MW by 2030, and further to 9,563 MW by 2041. Meanwhile, major hydro capacity is expected to increase modestly by 186 MW within the next five years through ongoing projects and then remain stable.

The CEB’s Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (2025-2044) aligns with national policy directives that call for 70% renewable energy by 2030, carbon neutrality by 2050, an end to new coal plant construction, and adding new capacity only from clean sources like Regasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG). 

The plan envisions adding more than 10,700 MW of renewable energy capacity over two decades, led primarily by solar power, which is projected to increase from roughly 1,000 MW to nearly 9,000 MW by 2044 through rooftop, ground-mounted, and floating installations. 

Wind capacity is also set to rise from 250 MW to approximately 2,600 MW, focusing on onshore development with offshore options explored beyond 2040. Moderate growth is expected in mini-hydro and biomass, without strict caps as long as grid limitations are managed.

However, the increasing share of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind will introduce operational challenges. Energy curtailment – when excess power is temporarily reduced – will likely increase during periods of low demand or peak generation, particularly from 2026 onward. 

These curtailments mostly occur during daytime low-load hours and high-wind seasons, highlighting the need for enhanced grid flexibility and clear rules governing when and how renewables are curtailed. Transparent grid codes must balance maintaining grid stability with minimising energy losses.

Currently, Sri Lanka’s electricity sector meets about 14% of the country’s overall energy demand. The domestic sector accounts for roughly 36% of electricity consumption. Demand has fluctuated in recent years due to factors like the Covid-19 pandemic, economic recession, and load shedding, causing a negative growth trend between 2019 and 2023. 

In 2023, peak demand was 2,415 MW, with a total generation of 15,728 GWh. Installed capacity at the end of 2023 stood at approximately 5,194 MW, including 3,107 MW from renewables and 2,088 MW from thermal sources.

The thermal fleet, mainly oil- and coal-fired plants, is expected to transition towards cleaner fuels such as LNG to support the country’s clean energy goals. While renewables like hydro, solar, wind, and biomass dominate the generation mix, dispatchable hydro plants face constraints from hydrological conditions and multi-purpose uses. 

Other renewables remain non-dispatchable. Overall, the system has about 3,501 MW of dispatchable capacity and 1,693 MW of non-dispatchable renewable capacity.

This expansion strategy reflects Sri Lanka’s shift towards diversifying fuel sources and increasing reliance on indigenous renewable resources, aiming to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and improve sustainability in power generation.

Urgent need to re-evaluate strategies

Meanwhile, another senior official attached to the power sector claimed: “The headline figure of 70% renewable generation in June masks the real challenges Sri Lanka faces in achieving a truly reliable and sustainable energy transition. 

“It’s not enough to rely on favourable hydrological conditions or short-term spikes. In order to secure a stable grid with such high shares of variable renewables like solar and wind, Sri Lanka urgently needs to address one critical gap: energy storage capacity.”

“Current plans for expanding storage and grid flexibility appear insufficient to handle the volatility and intermittency inherent in solar and wind generation. Without robust, large-scale storage solutions, the system will continue to suffer from curtailments and risk supply shortages during dry spells or low-wind periods. 

“This calls for a major acceleration in investment towards battery storage, pumped hydro storage, or other innovative storage technologies, not just expanding generation capacity alone,” the official added.

They further noted that if Sri Lanka failed to prioritise storage and grid modernisation alongside renewable expansion, the 70% target would remain an aspirational number rather than a sustainable reality. The Government and the CEB must urgently re-evaluate their strategies to ensure that the grid can reliably integrate high renewable shares without compromising energy security.

Govt. stance 

Responding to concerns raised by industry experts, Ministry of Energy Secretary and CEB Chairman Prof. Udayanga Hemapala offered clarification regarding the recent CEB announcement on the country’s energy achievements. 

He explained that the intention behind the announcement had been to highlight the current progress in the energy sector, which had been primarily driven by hydropower generation.

However, Prof. Hemapala stressed that the Government remained firmly committed to achieving its target of generating 70% of the nation’s energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030. He assured that the necessary capacity additions to the national grid were being planned in order to meet this goal within the stipulated time frame.

When questioned about whether the CEB’s announcement may have given the misleading impression that the 70% renewable energy target had already been achieved, Prof. Hemapala noted that renewable energy sector entrepreneurs tended to view such developments from a business-oriented perspective, often prioritising the expansion of their commercial opportunities. 

He reiterated that while progress had been made, the broader national objective was still a work in progress, with clear plans in place to reach the 2030 target.