The landmark talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson – a US military installation on the northern edge of Anchorage, Alaska ended with the old KGB trained spy-turned politician departing, with a smile on his face and seemingly happy with denting his ‘pariah’ image. The US President had drawn a lot of flack for inviting his Russian counterpart on to US soil for the meeting, and it seems, at least from what we know thus far, it was a failed exercise to reach the objective. Nevertheless, perhaps the meeting may contribute to reaching a ceasefire in the long run.
The talks were aimed to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine, while no concrete decisions were made, or at least communicated publicly, the move has eroded Trump’s flamboyant image of the ‘deal maker’, as the meetings ended with no ceasefire agreed on. Then again, no one, perhaps except Trump, seems to have high hopes that the meeting would deliver anything significant. The plan to agree on an immediate ceasefire was not achieved.
The takeaways are that Putin made the most of it, which may play into his domestic audience and the international recognition of Russia, which has suffered significantly since the war started. The optics of a US President rolling out the red carpet to welcome President Putin, and applauding his arrival like a happy child would, will not be forgotten soon by those who witnessed the televised event. The closed door talks between Trump and Putin, was indicative of who came prepared, President Putin’s delegation included long-standing foreign policy and subject matter experts to the table. However, the same cannot be said about President Trump’s team. Perhaps, in Europe, leaders may have breathed a sigh of relief that the meeting was not – one on one! It was clear from the communications from both sides in the lead up to the event that all parties were not keen for the two Presidents to discuss the complex matter (in absence of any Ukrainian participation) by themselves. For Europe, the optics of the US President welcoming Putin with a red carpet and riding alongside him in the Presidential limo (likely a pre-agreed move) may further erode Europe’s faith in the Trump administration as a reliable ally, and competent super power. However, Europe has been careful not to antagonise Trump with criticism, as they watch what’s unfolding. Ukraine may have had the most to lose from this meeting. Some experts have also pointed out that Trump’s reception of Putin and their ‘chummy’ demeanor does little to uphold the ‘rules-based order’ that the United States and Europe bangs on about to countries in the global South.
Putin’s goal may have been to regain some lost credibility and agency, and also to prolong the conflict a little more. Russia is not ready to give up the fight yet but needs time to rearm and reorganise. And without a firm commitment to a ceasefire, he may have got what he wanted. Putin has also been consistent in his message and continued to be firm about it during the leaders’ joint address of the Press. Putin’s Russia has been signaling that the historic linkages of Russian and Ukrainian communities and essentially not wanting Ukraine to become a truly ‘independent’ nation, nor fall into the orbit of the European Union and NATO. Essentially, Putin wants Ukraine and other ex-Soviet Union members to remain in Russian orbit, do their bidding, and remain a ‘buffer’ zone between them and NATO. He is also challenging the prevailing international order by doing so. When a powerful nation which is geographically close in proximity – plays the ‘historical or civilisational linkages’ card, it usually comes with many strings attached. Other nations which are rising, like China, India, and other countries will be watching these developments and how the current ‘world order’ responds to them. Their future course of action will likely be influenced by how the world responds today. Let us pray for open minds and meaningful peace between Ukraine-Russia, and the rest of Europe.