With election heat rising in anticipation of Sri Lanka’s most-anticipated Presidential Poll that is likely to take place in around six months’ time, it would be unusual if the political theatre in this drama-filled land had not gotten into a frenzy by now. As if on cue, there are already tell-tale signs of that phenomenon unfolding these days, with internal clashes within parties, jostling for  nominations, governing types going on distribution sprees at taxpayers’ expense, legal interventions and prohibitions, and the usual political witch-hunts, all making the news on a daily basis.

At least for the time being, these sideshows appear to have eclipsed the main event – the official announcement of the election itself. That apart, the biggest sideshow seems to be the fate of the two parties that have alternatively dominated local politics for the better part of the past 76 years. The fragmentation of both the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) now and the United National Party (UNP) earlier was inevitable and waiting to happen, given the inability of these dinosaurs to evolve with the times. The same old faces hogging key posts for years on end, if not decades, has not helped the cause either. 

With these parties likely to go into further disarray for similar but notably-different reasons, it has provided much-needed space for the new kids on the block to stake a claim for the nation’s topmost post this time. Ironically, the current holder of that office from the UNP is yet to decide if he will contest on the party’s ticket – the last time he did so being far back in 2005. Both the SLFP and its breakaway, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), are also in the same boat, further underlining the predicament of these fossilised parties that have all but lost their relevance in today’s complex world, which calls for radical, new, and inspired thinking.

Having lost to Mahinda Rajapaksa during the first and the last time he contested for the post, Ranil Wickremesinghe has since made a habit of outsourcing the UNP’s nomination to an ‘independent’ candidate. Speculation is rife that the elephant will once again be abandoned in favour of an independent candidate, with the difference being Wickremesinghe himself, being that candidate, choosing to dump the elephant and trademark green party colours. As to how the few remaining party faithful will digest that remains to be seen but it will no doubt push the grand old party further into the wilderness.

However, there is some consolation as far as the UNP is concerned with it being in relatively better shape compared to the SLFP and SLPP, both of which appear to be in the doldrums. Needless to say, this organic phasing out of the old guard will inevitably make life easier for the new kids on the block. But there is a lesson in the SLPP’s rise and fall – both taking place within a narrow five-year window – pointing to a fast-maturing and wiser electorate, with the youth at the forefront.

The ruling SLPP’s inability to come up with a suitable candidate, despite it being the party that secured 6.9 million votes at the last poll, underlines the rapid changes taking place in the local political arena post the disastrous Gotabaya Rajapaksa episode, which appears to have effectively sealed the party’s fate. In the circumstances, it would not be that surprising if the party decides to give this poll a miss.

Meanwhile, as far as the SLFP is concerned, its biggest liability seems to be its Chairman, former President Maithripala Sirisena. The party appears to be split in two with either camp resorting to legal action to checkmate the other. Sirisena himself being no stranger to controversy – usually being the one creating it – this time around finds himself in unfamiliar territory, being at the receiving end, with the court issuing an injunction preventing him from operating as Party Leader. Sirisena’s recent antics, including claiming that he knows who is behind the Easter attacks, have obviously not gone down too well within the party, resulting in an open game of cloak and dagger that has effectively neutralised any impact the party would have had at the upcoming poll.

Therefore, with the major contenders basically ruling themselves out of contention, the path has been paved for the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the National People’s Power (NPP) spearheaded by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) to fight it out unless a dark horse candidate makes it a three-way tussle, or, alternatively, the incumbent decides to contest and is able to make a significant enough impact to be considered as a potential contender.

But given the heavy baggage he will have to dump on the way, including his association with the Rajapaksas, lack of action in holding those responsible for the economic crisis to account, or in finding and prosecuting the masterminds behind the Easter terror attacks, the odds appear to be heavily stacked against him. The opinion polls conducted thus far reflect this reality.

Nevertheless, there appears to be a ray of hope despite all the madness taking place. Driven by the change demanded by the people’s movement of 2022 that dislodged the former President, there appears to be a strong likelihood of Sri Lanka’s political landscape finally coming of age. There are signs of it evolving into the more mature Western style of campaigning, with the leading candidates facing off in political debates, leaving the nation to judge as to who will best fit the role. It is in this backdrop that a political debate has been mooted between the current frontrunners for the post, the Leaders of the SJB and the NPP.

For the first time in 76 years since independence, the two frontrunners will face off against each other in staking a claim for the presidency before a national audience. However, as good as the idea of a US-style debate might seem, it also bears the trademarks of a political masterstroke that can only benefit one individual. Therefore, if the Leaders of the SJB and the NPP fall for what certainly looks like a trap and train their guns on each other rather than their common enemy, then it would be one up for the old guard, showing up the younger presidential aspirants as immature. 

Therefore, if the evolution of Sri Lanka’s electoral process to international standards is to be worthy of a thumbs-up, then the incumbent President – a master strategist probably watching as to who will bite the bait – must also necessarily be a part of any such debate. To not feature him in such an event will be like ‘Hamlet’ without the Prince of Denmark.

While there is some merit in the slogan being propagated by one political party in particular that the 76 years since independence have not seen much progress and the governments that held office have not done enough, it lacks credibility for the simple reason that it conveniently ignores the significant role it played in shaping the country’s history. 

There is no way that two very bloody and disruptive insurrections that caused enough economic disruption to push the country back by decades can be discounted in any manner or erased from the history books. That party now pontificating about 76 years of non-progress is therefore rich and must be taken with a pinch of salt. That said, if the party has realised its mistakes, is regretful of the role it played in 1971 and 1988/’89, and is genuine in its intentions, then it has its work cut out to not only show up at the proposed debate but win over an apprehensive nation.