Within less than three weeks, the South/Southeast Asian region has suffered multiple earthquakes, raising questions about predictions made earlier regarding the possibility of the ‘next big one’ and bringing with it the sobering realisation that Sri Lanka is ill-prepared for another major seismic or seismic-linked tsunami incident.

Yesterday (16), a 5.6-magnitude earthquake struck off the southern Philippines, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), with no immediate reports of damage or casualties. The quake off the coast of the Island of Mindanao had a depth of 30km, the USGS added. At the time of going to print, there was no credible tsunami warning issued for the Philippines archipelago or the region. Meanwhile, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush region at dusk on Wednesday, reportedly rattling parts of Northern India, including Delhi-NCR, according to the Indian National Centre for Seismology (NCS). Reports indicate that the earthquake, occurring at a depth of 75 km, prompted widespread public alarm but caused no immediate casualties or structural damage. Conflicting magnitude assessments from global agencies and urgent calls for disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions have dominated discussions.

Last month (28 March), a devastating magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Myanmar and impacted several other countries in the periphery, including Bangladesh, India, Laos, Thailand, and China. Sri Lanka, after a slow start, finally managed to dispatch a team of armed forces personnel to join the global relief effort that is underway to assist the war-ravaged, junta-led Southeast Asian nation, which borders the Indian Ocean. With the devastation in Myanmar now well reported on, it is evident that a major earthquake could have a disastrous impact on Sri Lanka, especially its densely populated and highly urbanised western seaboard.

Despite not being traditionally known as an earthquake-prone area, Sri Lanka has unexpectedly experienced a rise in seismic activity in the recent past. Over the past few years, a series of minor tremors have been reported. According to the Asia Pacific Alliance for Disaster Management, Sri Lanka reported a total of 16 incidents in 2020 and 18 occurrences in 2021. However, the number of recorded minor tremors decreased to five in 2022. In 2023, nine minor tremors have been reported thus far. Meanwhile, the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau of Sri Lanka stated that the likelihood of tremors significantly affecting buildings is minimal since the majority of recorded tremors register below magnitude 3 on the Richter scale. However, this unusual surge in tremor occurrences has raised concerns and attracted attention within both the expert community and the local population. In 2023, A-PAD SL partnered with the Disaster Management Centre and successfully produced an extensive guide for proactive community earthquake preparedness with the technological assistance of the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB). In 2023, concerns grew about the potential for an earthquake in India, which experts said poses no immediate threat to Sri Lanka. Local experts were reassured after Indian scientists warned about the possibility of earthquakes in the Uttarakhand region in India.  The concerns came in the backdrop of Indian National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) Chief Scientist Dr. N. Purnachandra Rao revealing to Indian media last week that the Himalayan region remained highly vulnerable to tremors, with Uttarakhand likely to “witness a massive earthquake any time” of a magnitude “similar to or more than Türkiye”, adding that it could be a magnitude 8 scale earthquake. One local expert told us that the impact of an earthquake depended on its intensity, which was usually indicated by its place on the Richter scale. “An earthquake of magnitude 5 on the Richter scale occurred in 2020 and was felt in Colombo and Jaffna. From a geological point of view, if a 5 on the scale is felt in Colombo, a quake of magnitude 8 or more will definitely be felt,” the local expert said, noting however that since it was only a forecast, the chances of an earthquake could go either way but that it was necessary to be prepared for it.        

A majority of disasters in Sri Lanka are caused by climate, such as flooding, landslides, extreme winds and drought. Sri Lanka has been ranked high amongst the most climate change-affected countries according to the Global Climate Risk Index. As such, it would be prudent for the Government to conduct a risk assessment with local and foreign experts to map the possible impact of earthquakes and linked tsunami risks, and act swiftly on expert advice.  Let us not wait for the next crisis to happen, to act.