After a strong El Niño, global weather is poised to transition to La Niña in the second half of 2024, a weather pattern which typically brings heavy rains to Southeast Asia, India, and Australia, according to meteorologists and agricultural analysts.
The vast majority of weather models are pointing towards a weak La Niña in the second half of the year or towards the last quarter. One out of maybe 25 weather models is showing a strong La Niña, which could impact crops in a country such as Sri Lanka.
Last year’s El Niño, which followed three La Niña years, saw hot and dry weather in Asia in general while heavier rains were seen in Sri Lanka, impacting crops such as vegetables and driving demand high.
Sri Lanka, which faces higher climate vulnerability, is already experiencing extreme heat conditions due to the prevailing El Niño condition, with heat advisories issued for almost all districts.
La Niña following El Niño will cause unexpected shocks to the country’s agriculture sector which is still recovering after a disastrous 2022.
La Niña disadvantageous for Maha season
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, University of Peradeniya Faculty of Agriculture Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe said that the current El Niño year would end by May and a neutral phase was expected in the forthcoming season, although there was now a 62% probability that the La Niña phase would follow El Niño, according to global estimates.
“This is not good news because everything will be upturned. We may receive very low rain, similar to what happened during 2016-’17,” he said.
He further noted that should La Niña take place towards the Maha season of this year, there would be problems with the harvest.
He observed that although there had been early speculations regarding El Niño, it had only been confirmed in July. “However, no government can take any particular decision given the short lead period, only being able to advise the people on what to be done to the best possible extent,” he said.
Moreover, he said that while vegetables were not noticeably inexpensive during April in Sri Lanka, the recent cultivation spree had caused the vegetable market to crash due to excess supply, spurred on either by the destruction of cultivations or late cultivation by farmers during December and January owing to last year’s floods.
According to Central Bank data, the price of 1 kg of carrots, which surpassed Rs. 2,000 during January, has declined to Rs. 360 by the end of the first week of April.
Groundwork on climate change
Prof. Marambe noted that Sri Lanka had undertaken a great deal of groundwork regarding climate change at the legal and policy level.
He pointed to the National Policy on Climate Change and the National Agriculture Policy launched by President Ranil Wickremesinghe at last year’s COP28 as examples.
Moreover, he said Sri Lanka already possessed a National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change Impacts, which had been introduced in 2016, as well as updated Nationally Determined Contributions from 2022.
“The highest priority has been given to the agriculture sector in terms of adaptations because it is considered as one of the most vulnerable sectors,” he said.
Prof. Marambe said that the Department of Agriculture had in September 2023 launched a document on climate-smart agricultural technologies adopted by Sri Lanka, concerning packages that had been introduced to adapt to climate change.
For example, he noted that Sri Lanka had developed two drought-tolerant rice varieties, namely BG 251 and BG 314. He however noted that these varieties being drought tolerant did not imply that they were always high-yielding, but rather that they were less affected by the drought.
He also added that Sri Lanka had already released the first-ever drought-tolerant tea clone named the TRI 5000 series in 2015.
Moreover, he said that Sri Lanka had adapted to climate change, with recent research indicating that if livestock could be incorporated into the crop production systems where possible, it would ensure that food security was assured even during a drought.
“That is because while a crop might fail completely, animals such as cattle might not die. While they might not produce the normal milk yield, they will produce a yield of at least 10-20%, ensuring that the food security needs of the household can be met partially,” he said.
Importance of inter-monsoon cultivation
Prof. Marambe noted that Sri Lanka was currently not limiting its cultivation to the two main cultivation seasons of Yala and Maha since inter-seasonal cultivation had been recommended, which involved the two-month gap between the two main cultivation seasons.
He said that the Department of Agriculture had recommended the cultivation of short-term drought-tolerant legume crops such as mung beans, which can survive in the environment using the residual moisture in the soil during the inter-seasonal period.
Further, he observed that timely planting was the most important factor in agriculture, with farmers being advised to plant with the onset of monsoon or inter-monsoon rains.
He noted that commencing agriculture during inter-monsoon rains, such as those Sri Lanka was currently experiencing, would help conserve water in the reservoirs, enabling it to be used toward the end of the season whenever water scarcity arose.
He added that the results of such initiatives could be seen when considering the statistics of the past few years, with the farmers planting with the onset of inter-monsoon rains and the highest extent of paddy lands cultivated being observed last October when compared with the Maha season.
According to the Department of Agriculture, 590 acres of abandoned lands were harvested during the Yala season and 27.30 acres were harvested during the Maha season in 2023.
The national estimates for Q4 of 2023 showed that overall agricultural activities had expanded by 2.6%, which was mainly driven by the growing of rice (20%), growing of other perennial crops (8.9%), growing of fruits (7.2%), growing of vegetables (3.2%), and growing of cereals (2.9%).
The country’s paddy yield was up by 25% in the 2023 Yala season from a year ago at 1.83 million MT.
Prof. Marambe noted that seasonal climate forecasting was crucial for farmers at a time when rainfall changed, in order to enable them to start preparing the land for cultivation.
“Scientists should give a good forecast to the farming community with a lead interval of at least one month, but we are yet to develop that technology and we have to work hard on that instead of determining whether Yala should start in March and Maha in September,” he said.
Crop destruction due to climate
Addressing the flood conditions that had impacted the vegetable prices in December 2023 and January, Prof. Marambe said that the Government had been informed in July and August last year regarding the possibility of heavy rainfall in October, November, and December of that year.
“We warned the people that vegetable cultivation would not be easy as the central area would be the most affected,” he added.
He said that the heavy rainfall had been predicted using the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mechanism, which could mean very high turnfall should it turn positive.
However, he said that predictions could only be made with a very short lag, which meant that nothing could be done but inform people to enable them to plan cultivation.
Meanwhile, speaking to The Sunday Morning, Sri Lanka Agriculture Economics Association President Dr. Sumali Dissanayake said that although the country was receiving rains from two monsoon seasons due to climate change, there were changes in the precipitation patterns. Accordingly, countries such as Sri Lanka will experience extreme weather events such as what is being experienced at present.
She noted that Sri Lanka had witnessed several floods along with droughts over the past few years, which had destroyed 30-40% of the harvest annually.
She explained that the current dry weather conditions were due to climate change, noting that most models used to predict weather had predicted that countries would experience an increase in temperature in the future.
“This is why we are working on mitigation policies to limit the temperature to an increase of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius,” she said.
Moreover, she pointed out that since extreme weather events were likely to increase in future, the volume of rainfall received would also be higher. According to her, this high volume of rainfall will cause more floods, impacting the harvest.
“Agriculture will be impacted since it is the most climate-dependent activity, but it will affect different crops in different ways,” she said. For example, paddy, which is a submerged crop, needs water during certain stages of growth while during other stages it needs dry weather conditions.
“We can introduce policies such as crop rotation and changing crop calendars,” Dissanayake said, outlining what could be done in order to address such climate impacts.
Further, she noted that Sri Lankan farmers had certain adaptation techniques for climate change, such as changing calendars and planting days.
For instance, Dissanayake pointed out that yields could be increased if cultivation was advanced by one month in wet zones, while if the planting days were delayed by one month it would cause yields to reduce.
However, she said that based on previous trends, biophysical models, and economic models, it had been predicted that rice productivity (harvest per acre) would increase with these extreme weather conditions.
“It will adversely affect cultivations like maize and productivity will drop for almost all other crops, including perennials such as tea, rubber, and coconut. Should flooding occur, upcountry vegetables will be impacted and prices will increase due to demand,” she added.
La Niña impact on Yala season
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Management Centre Director Dr. Kumari Rathnayake said that due to La Niña, areas expecting the south-west monsoon could receive above average rains, impacting crops.
She noted that the La Niña could impact this Yala season as well, in addition to the Maha season.
She said that the department was providing agriculture advisory services to farmers on a monthly basis due to the current weather conditions, in order to enable them to plan for the next three months.
Rathnayake further said that according to the Meteorological Department, while the Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Central, and Uva Provinces would receive normal rainfall in April, this would not be the case for other provinces, since the dry weather conditions were expected to continue further.
However, she stressed that the south western region was expected to have above average rainfall in May.
Further, she said that while La Niña would have an impact on all crops, the reservoirs and tanks were filled with sufficient quantities of water due to the rainfall experienced in the last quarter of 2023.
She noted that the Irrigation Department and the Mahaweli Authority had informed that the water bodies were at 85-87% capacity while the Department of Agrarian Development had announced that up to 70% of the lands could be cultivated.
“Although the rains are low, we can make use of the water in these water bodies,” Rathnayake stressed.
Farmers instructed to plant early
Minister of Agriculture Mahinda Amaraweera told The Sunday Morning that the authorities had informed farmers regarding the impending La Niña conditions and requested them to commence planting early, in addition to instructing them to opt for alternative crops other than paddy in places with less water.
He added that vegetables would not be affected by the droughts, but would only be impacted if floods occurred similar to the last quarter of 2023.
“El Niño has not had any impact on the sector and the issue with the water shortage was solved,” he said.