As Israel claims victory with the killing of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar, the conflict’s scope is widening. Battles are intensifying in Southern Lebanon with Hezbollah, while questions mount over whether Israel’s military strategy can deliver a lasting solution.
For a year, Israel has relentlessly hunted down the members of Hamas responsible for the 7 October 2023 attack, vowing that Hamas would pay the ultimate price. Now, Israel claims that this is “the beginning of the end” with the death of Sinwar. Sitting alone, with no allies in sight and seemingly without the capacity to fight back, was not how anyone expected the hunt for the Hamas Leader to end.
Sinwar’s life was one defined by violence. Born in a refugee camp in Gaza, he was imprisoned in Israel in 1988 for the murders of four Palestinians, whom he accused of collaborating with Israel. Over the years, he earned the nickname ‘Butcher of Khan Younis’ for his relentless pursuit of perceived traitors.
After spending more than 20 years behind bars, Sinwar was released in a 2011 prisoner swap, returning to his birthplace in Gaza and rapidly climbing the ranks within Hamas. By 2015, he was already branded a global terrorist by the US and the EU, just a year-and-a-half after he was elected as the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau.
Israel alleges that Sinwar masterminded the 7 October 2023 attack, which resulted in over 1,200 Israeli deaths, most of whom were civilians, and more than 200 hostages taken to Gaza, of which 101 are believed to be alive.
The irony is that, despite all of Israel’s efforts to track Sinwar, reports suggest that the Israeli military may have stumbled upon him by accident during a routine patrol in Rafah in southern Gaza, where they came under fire.
A brigade from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was conducting what was supposed to be a simple patrol when the situation escalated. It was in the aftermath of this unexpected clash that Sinwar’s body was discovered, along with a trove of items that hinted at the life of a militant leader on the run.
The IDF released images of items said to have been found with Sinwar’s body – cash, bullets, ID papers, and even a map of what appeared to be a tunnel network. The discovery served as a stark reminder of the elaborate network of underground tunnels Hamas has long relied on to move fighters, arms, and supplies, and to evade Israeli detection.
Now, with Sinwar gone, questions arise about who will lead Hamas next. Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Khalil al-Hayya eulogised Sinwar and ruled out any imminent release of hostages until Israel’s aggression in Gaza ceased, stating: “The prisoners will not return to you until the aggression on our people in Gaza is stopped and there is a full withdrawal.”
Southern Lebanon’s escalating conflict
While much of the attention has focused on Sinwar’s death, significant developments continue in Southern Lebanon, where the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah remains intense.
The two sides are locked in a deadly struggle, with Israel incurring heavy casualties, as is Hezbollah. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi noted that entire chains of command were being wiped out on both sides. Yet, despite Israel’s air and ground offensives, Hezbollah has not been deterred.
The militant group has escalated its rocket attacks, declaring an escalating phase of confrontation with the Israeli military. These latest actions suggest that, despite the loss of Sinwar, those fighting Israel do not believe that the Jewish State’s ambitions will be satisfied merely by the killing of the Hamas Leader.
The fighting in Southern Lebanon has broader implications, not just for Israel and Hezbollah, but for the region as a whole. The area has become a flashpoint in the larger conflict, with fears that the skirmishes could draw neighbouring countries into a wider war.
The shadow of past conflicts looms large, particularly the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, which saw significant casualties on both sides and widespread destruction in Lebanon.
This time, Hezbollah is believed to be better equipped and more experienced, having honed its combat skills in the Syrian Civil War. The group’s extensive tunnel network and strategic use of Lebanon’s rugged terrain present formidable challenges for the Israeli military.
US reactions and calls for restraint
US President Joe Biden remarked that Sinwar “had the blood of Americans, Israelis, Palestinians, Germans, and so many others on his hands”. However, in the same breath, Biden urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “also make this moment an opportunity to seek a path to peace”.
The US has also called for restraint from Israel in its military operations in Lebanon, with State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller noting a significant reduction in the intensity of the bombardment on Beirut after American intervention.
Despite calls for de-escalation, Hezbollah has stepped up the frequency of its attacks on Northern Israel in recent days, vowing to continue targeting Israel until a ceasefire in Gaza is reached. Hopes for a ceasefire and a hostage release deal have been repeatedly shattered by failed negotiations, with the prospects for an agreement appearing increasingly bleak.
The ground offensive and its difficulties
Israel’s ground invasion into Southern Lebanon faces many challenges. The hilly and mountainous terrain presents difficulties for even the most well-equipped military, favouring guerrilla forces like Hezbollah.
The group, which has an extensive tunnel network that stretches across Southern Lebanon, has gained valuable combat experience from its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. The Israeli military’s ground forces, while advanced, are grappling with these unique geographical and strategic challenges, as well as the psychological toll of prolonged combat.
Lack of local support further complicates Israel’s military actions. With many Lebanese viewing the Israeli forces as adversaries and the airstrikes having killed over 1,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands, the humanitarian situation has grown dire.
This environment has not only led to resentment but may also fuel resistance against the invasion, even among those who do not support Hezbollah. The possibility of increased civilian casualties continues to threaten Israel’s efforts to conduct its operations without further alienating the local population.
Strategic uncertainty and criticism
Some analysts suggest that Israel’s strategy in Lebanon lacks coherence, relying excessively on military force without adequately pursuing diplomatic solutions. Airstrikes have predominantly targeted Hezbollah’s strongholds in Southern Lebanon and Shiite areas in Beirut. This has fuelled concerns that Israel’s military approach risks deepening sectarian divisions within Lebanon, potentially driving the country toward another civil conflict.
The warning from Prime Minister Netanyahu to the Lebanese people to “rein in Hezbollah, or risk becoming another Gaza,” has been interpreted by some as a direct attempt to sow discord between the broader Lebanese population and the Shia community. The memories of Lebanon’s civil war loom large, and there is a deep-rooted rejection within society of anything that could lead to renewed sectarian strife.