With 2024 drawing to a close, attention turns to the coming year and what awaits the global community both in terms of security and economic developments.
As the year ends, the foundation has been laid for what suggests being a furthering of divisions between the Global North and Global South. Conflicts in the Middle East and Europe are at their tipping point, economic warfare between China and America threatens to rear its ugly head once again, and power blocs continue to strive to exert their presence on the global economies. While China and America continue to struggle for dominance, new players are emerging who will no doubt leave their mark on the coming year.
The final two months of 2024 saw a flurry of activity that, to some, appeared to be a precursor for the coming 12 months. Donald Trump’s re-election to the presidency in the US, while not wholly unexpected, did leave many wondering what new trajectory his second term would place America, along with its allies, on.
The lightning fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has opened a potentially new conflict zone, as both Russia and Israel will attempt to reassert their presence in the region. The political instability in Western Europe, coupled with the uncertainty of the Ukrainian war with Russia, leaves the Global North scrambling to carve out a path forward.
It can be said that 2024 was a year of elections, both planned and unplanned. India, the UK, France, Pakistan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the US all played hosts to elections this past year. Barring India and Indonesia, the rest saw a diversion in the paths they were on, leading to the question of what awaits the geopolitical stage.
Realms of uncertainty: South Asia
India, viewed as the largest electoral performance, held its mammoth General Elections over a period of five weeks in the middle of 2024. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was able to reclaim power, it did so via an alliance, missing out on the coveted landslide of 400 seats.
The Indian public used the opportunity to send a signal to the BJP that, while being allowed one more chance in power, its support is wavering. Dynastic Rahul Gandhi, who had overseen the Congress Party’s heaviest defeat last time around, was able to cobble together an alliance, aptly named INDIA, an acronym for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. This political grouping was attractive enough to the voters to ensure that the Opposition was able to muster 234 seats to challenge the BJP-led alliance’s 293.
The political weakening in India will make for an interesting year. As China continues its expansion into the Indian Ocean via economic measures, India will continue to strive to assert its influence over its neighbours.
To its credit, India has recognised that volatility along its borders only serves to weaken its own standing. In November this year, the India-China Border Patrol Agreement was signed, which was a step towards diffusing tensions that had arisen following skirmishes in 2020 between the two countries in Galwan Valley. For India, the agreement will provide it with much-needed breathing space as it turns its attention to its neighbours to the west and east.
The controversial electoral defeat of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) at Pakistan’s elections in February this year led to Shehbaz Sharif, brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, assuming the premiership.
While officially peace talks between the nuclear neighbours have not restarted, the return to power of the Sharif family does present the possibility of a more open dialogue between the two leaders. It was in 2015 that Prime Minister Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore, where he met with then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family.
However, for India, the situation to the east may not prove to be as straightforward with the ousting of long-time Bangladeshi Premier Sheikh Hasina through popular protests. Following weeks of civil unrest, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister was forced to flee, seeking asylum in India.
While Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus has officially assumed leadership of the country as Chief Adviser, it remains unclear as to who is in the driver’s seat. Certainly, India’s relations with Bangladesh were very much bolstered by Hasina’s presence. Whether it is able to regain lost ground with the new power brokers of Bangladesh remains to be seen.
To the south, India will also be forced to deal with the emergence of the Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led Government in Sri Lanka. The surprise electoral defeat of incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe to first-timer Anura Kumara Dissanayake paved the way for a landslide victory for the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP).
Holding firm to socialist and Marxist ideology, the JVP is steeped in anti-Indian sentiment. While the new President has taken steps to temper the party’s ideals, it remains to be seen how long he can restrain his cadre.
Following his inaugural visit to India earlier this month, a joint communiqué by the two countries outlined in detail the extent to which Indo-Lankan ties were to be deepened. However, shortly after his return to the island, many of his own party members made attempts to downplay the significance of the document, suggesting that most areas would require further negotiations.
As relations with the region linger in the realms of uncertainty for India, Prime Minister Modi and his Government will certainly be welcoming Trump’s return to power.
US trajectory under Trump
With Trump having clinched the US Presidential Election in a convincing manner, the country’s path through 2025 will certainly be taking on a new and decisive tone.
In the months and years leading up to the Presidential Election, Trump had made it clear that once in power, he would be focussed on setting the US back on the path he had carved out for the country. Internationally this will mean a mixed package, which would see a mix of antagonism, isolationism, and building business ties.
Trump’s first term was marked by the tariff war he entered into with China; once again China has been earmarked as the target for such a hike in tariffs. However, alongside China, Trump has also pledged to introduce new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. While neither country has traditionally been seen as economic competitors to the US, Trump’s vendetta against illegal migration has placed the northern and southern neighbours of America on par with China.
Separately, while acknowledging Prime Minister Modi as “fantastic,” Trump went on to highlight India’s tendency to pursue a closed economy as a proof of the necessity to explore new tariffs on the South Asian giant.
No doubt many Indians will be hoping that Modi’s close personal relationship with Trump will help dissuade the American President from pursuing the option of hiking tariffs.
However, while India may be hopeful about talking Trump down from the metaphorical tariff ledge, other allies of the US may not be as lucky.
In his previous term, Trump threatened to defund the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if America’s allies did not start what he described as matching the US’s contribution to the alliance. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, any moves to tone down NATO’s involvement in the European continent will certainly be a cause of concern for US allies, not least Ukraine itself.
Trump has repeatedly used the war in Ukraine to attack President Joe Biden, claiming that had he been in office the conflict would have been avoided. Now with him being less than a month away from his return to the White House, pundits are watching closely for what route Trump may take in regard to the conflict. During the campaign, the former and future President was quick to stress that he would ensure a cessation of hostilities, while also ensuring the security of Ukraine.
However, Trump’s previous criticism of the continued US funding of the war in Ukraine suggests that he may very well pursue a hardline stance of cutting off financial support for the battered Eastern European state if it does not sue for peace with Russia. On the other side of the coin, Trump will once again come face to face with President Vladimir Putin.
Having been at the centre of allegations of interfering with the 2016 US elections in favour of Trump, Putin will certainly welcome a US President who appears to be taking a more conciliatory tone on Russia. Whether Trump proactively pursues a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war, a Republican-controlled House of Representatives is expected to see a cutback in funding for the conflict.
While Europe has demonstrated its hesitancy in limitless support for Ukraine, a reduction on the part of the US will certainly prove to be influential on the outcome of the war. Whether Russia will increase the expansion of its occupied territory or whether the war will continue to meander to a ceasefire via a stalemate remains to be seen.
Instability in Western Europe
Of course, the US’s actions alone will not determine the future of the war in Ukraine. Whether Western Europe continues to support the defences of Ukraine or actively encourage a cessation of hostilities remains a talking point. Domestically, the political structure in Western Europe is facing an uncertain path ahead as both France and Germany are dealing with internal political instability.
Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron surprised many people by calling a snap General Election following the rise of the Far Right in the European Union (EU) elections. What began as a ploy to attempt to stem the tide instead saw the French Parliament divided three ways with neither the Far Right, Centrists, nor Far Left able to gain a solid foothold. The result was horse-trading and political bargaining to form a government.
At the best of times this is a risky move; on this occasion, France saw its Government fall in the face of its inability to pass a budget. With the new Centrist-led Government being announced in the last few days, France will start the new year attempting to once again pass a budget.
However, pressure remains on Marcon’s own position as calls continue to grow for his resignation. While he has remained steadfast up to now in his commitment to seeing out his term, time will tell whether he can continue to beat back the naysayers.
On the other side of the border, Germany is facing its own political uncertainty with the collapse of the German Government a few weeks before Christmas.
With German Chancellor Olaf Scholz having been forced to govern with the support of the Opposition following the collapse of his alliance in November, a vote of confidence was called with the expectations of a loss. This freed up the German Chancellor to call for early elections, which will take place in February 2025 rather than waiting until September.
While the outcome of the confidence vote was what was hoped for, it is unclear whether Scholz will be able to retain his chancellorship. Opinion polls suggest that Scholz’s party is trailing, with the possibility of the Far Right collecting enough seats to pose further problems for the next governing coalition.
Dynamics within conflict regions
While Western Europe grapples with its internal political strife, Ukraine will no doubt be watching it closely with the growing likelihood that 2025 will see a step down in financial support for the country in its war against Russia.
With the growing possibility of Ukraine being forced to sue for peace and its membership of NATO looking a far-off possibility, Russia may attempt to expand its occupied territories, allowing it a stronger position at the negotiating table. While Russia has suffered heavy losses in the conflict, a lightning offensive could see Putin stretch further westward.
For Russia, the possibility of a conclusion of the war on its terms will not be scoffed at. Earlier this month, Syria’s decade-old civil war came to a swift conclusion as Assad fled to Russia. Faced with a rapid advance by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Assad and his family were airlifted to Russia from a Russian outpost on Syrian territory.
Prior to Assad’s defeat, he had been able to maintain his iron grip over his country due to the military support of Russia since the onset of fighting in 2011. However, following the prolonged invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s attention had understandably turned back to its homefront.
With the collapse of the Assad dynasty, Russia will be forced to examine how it can once again secure a foothold in the Middle East. While Syria’s bloody civil war has come to an end, the instability and uncertainty facing the country is far from resolved. With power blocs including the US and Russia vying for influence, it is a distinct possibility that a fresh conflict may emerge between the different armed groups within the country.
For Israel, which had opened a fresh front with Syria earlier this year, the possibility of further internal instability in Syria could prove an attractive option. As public opinion continues to mount against Israel’s ongoing genocidal offensive against Gaza, the divisions within the Middle East will prove to be a boost for the surrounded state.
US-China rivalry and ‘Cold War 2.0’
While 2025 is shaping up to be a potentially decisive year with regard to ongoing conflicts and power rivalries, one eye of the global community will be kept on the US-China rivalry.
Trump, who takes office in less than a month, has promised a continuation of his tariffs on China. In return, Chinese President Xi Jinping has started his country’s own preparations for a potential trade war.
With China’s economy seen as more fragile than it was back in 2016, President Xi has made a pre-emptive move by launching a probe into US chip manufacturer Nvidia over what it claimed was suspected antitrust violations. This was seen more as providing China with ammunition ahead of trade negotiations with the new US administration.
While US-China relations appear to be heating up on the economic front, there does appear to be the possibility of a downturn in the continued antagonism with regard to Taiwan by both sides. Trump has been vocal about what he considers an over-reliance by Taiwan on the US and it is unlikely that Taiwan will see an increase in military assistance under a Trump presidency as it did during the Biden administration.
Of course, the US-China rivalry will continue to have its overflow impact on several of the other regional powerhouses including India, Japan, Russia, and Europe as a whole. However, the turning of attention away from military posturing to one of economic tit for tat will be a big power rivalry most nations can accept.
The year 2025 will certainly be a turning point in the ever-evolving ‘Cold War 2.0’. It will also prove to be a decisive year in the expanding Global North-Global South competition. Whether or not we will see an expansion of conflict and the continued growth of new regional power blocs or a resurgence of the old guard remains to be seen.
(The writer served as the Director of International Affairs to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe)