Sri Lanka has been identified as one of the countries most vulnerable to a sudden shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a March 2026 report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

The study warns that a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe food security crisis in Sri Lanka, with food prices projected to rise by over 15%.

Researchers highlight that the impact would go beyond energy shortages, creating a “bottleneck effect” due to disruptions in global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

For Sri Lanka, this risk is intensified by its heavy reliance on imported energy, fertilizers, and a large agricultural sector with limited alternatives.

The report notes that the timing of such a disruption would be critical. A closure during the March–April planting season could lead to fertilizer shortages, resulting in reduced harvests or failed cultivation.

It also points to widening global inequality in resilience, with wealthier nations expected to face minimal impact, while countries like Sri Lanka could experience significantly higher food price increases and economic losses.

To reduce these risks, the institute recommends that vulnerable countries prioritize fertilizer security alongside energy security, including the establishment of strategic reserves.