The political stages around the world are facing upheaval, with the camps of the Left and Right fighting it out for dominance. In Europe, the wave of ethno-nationalism traditionally associated with the Far-Right is being met with opposition from Far-Left Marxist-leaning camps.
In June this year, the European Union (EU) went to the polls. While the voting trend was to the Right, a sizeable shift in support for the Far-Right was apparent. Despite European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s Centre-Right European People’s Party emerging as the single largest bloc, the Far-Right saw a surge in numbers.
France’s Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw a significant victory among her French counterparts, prompting Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election back in France. Similar results were seen among the Italian bloc as well as the German bloc.
France’s snap election saw a result contrasting that of the EU elections, with Le Pen’s party defeated in the second round of voting by a hastily cobbled together alliance between France’s Leftist groups. Tactical withdrawals by the Leftist parties allowed them to prevent a complete swing to Far-Right politics. However, the result being a hung Parliament has left France teetering between Far-Left and Far-Right policies.
Across the Channel in the UK, despite the Labour Party winning a near two-thirds majority at its recent elections, the voting percentages for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party points to a growing shift in base politics. With a healthy 14.3% of the national vote, Farage and his group demonstrated that a rejection of the Conservatives has allowed for the Far-Right to encroach on the otherwise Centre-Right stage.
The US Presidential Election is between Donald Trump, who has cornered the Far-Right political camp, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who finds herself swaying between the Far-Left and Centre-Left. Opinion polls are still showing the race is too tight to call; however, recent surges in numbers favouring Trump suggests that a return to the Far-Right is not far off. Whether a late rally amongst the Leftist groups in support of Harris and the Democrats will take place remains to be seen.
The rise in extremist political agendas is serving as a warning signal for countries around the world. The absence of Centrist political groupings has seen voters swing between the extremes of both camps.
Battle for the presidency
When Anura Kumara Dissanayake was declared the victor in Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election, he was greeted with international media labelling him as the ‘Marxist President’.
During the campaign, President Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) attempted to re-position itself as a Centre-Left political grouping. Emphasis on increased social welfare, cracking down on corruption, and a re-evaluation of Sri Lanka’s economic liberalisation agenda were the cornerstones of his campaign.
The election came on the back of an accelerated austerity programme initiated by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was forced to adopt these unpopular measures due to the country’s bankruptcy.
Playing on the disgruntlement of the public, President Dissanayake successfully wove a tale of quick fixes to far deeper systemic issues. To his benefit, the presence of three contenders for the presidency allowed him to secure his position as the largest single bloc.
From the outside, the campaigns between the main challenger and the incumbent were very much a battle between Centre-Right and Centre-Left politics. Wickremesinghe drove the unpopular message of the need to remain committed to the reform agenda. Dissanayake, on the other hand, presented a get-out-of-jail-free card in the form of an aggressive anti-corruption drive that would be accompanied by welfare programmes and salary hikes.
The third contender for the presidency was Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, who vacillated between promising a reform agenda under a re-negotiated International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and enhanced welfare schemes.
The result was an absence of a winner with a clear majority. For the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, the Presidential Election went into a second count, yet neither of the top two contenders (Dissanayake and Premadasa) were able to secure a 50%-plus-one majority.
Today, President Dissanayake sits on a 42% plurality; the last time a presidential candidate secured a similar percentage was Premadasa during his unsuccessful bid at the 2019 Presidential Election.
Between Wickremesinghe and Premadasa, the apparent Centre-Right groupings secured 48% of the vote, with the remaining 10% divided between an array of candidates.
An uncertain future
Sri Lanka’s political landscape now faces an uncertain future. The upcoming General Elections have so far failed to capture the interest of the public, with a far more subdued campaign underway. Yet again, a wide array of parties and individuals are contesting the election, which begs the question of who represents which camp.
The NPP’s five weeks in Government suggest that it will continue to pursue Leftist policies with an apparent shift towards the Far-Left. The recent IMF meetings in Washington ended with no decision with regard to the third review of Sri Lanka’s ongoing programme. Conflicting messages have emerged from the Government, with members of the ruling party suggesting that they will be re-evaluating the programme.
A consensus seems to be taking hold among the voting public that the NPP will be looking to consolidate its Leftist policies, turning its back on the reform agenda begun by Wickremesinghe.
Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has also gone silent on the main stage regarding its policies, with candidates choosing to focus on localised, grassroot politics. The infrequent messaging from Premadasa once again points to indecision as to whether the party will continue to position itself as a Centre-Right bloc or shift to the Centre-Left.
The absence of the economic triumvirate of Dr. Harsha de Silva, Kabir Hashim, and Eran Wickramaratne from the national stage, along with the pledge to renegotiate the IMF agreement, suggests that a shift to the Left is very much in the making for the SJB.
The New Democratic Front (NDF), under the tutelage of Wickremesinghe, has promised a continuation of the reform agenda which was taken up in 2022. Comprising the United National Party (UNP) and former members of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) who extended support to the former President’s independent candidacy, the NDF has moved to solidify itself as the Centre-Right bloc.
While the Presidential Election suggested that Centre-Left politics is currently in the minority in the country, the political parties continue their shift towards this side. The question now emerges as to what awaits Centre-Right politics in Sri Lanka.
Despite Wickremesinghe emerging unsuccessful in his electoral bid, the prominence of those accepting of Centre-Right policies was prevalent. The UNP, which is the traditional bastion of Centre-Right politics, has faced upheaval and disorganisation in the past few years. However, analysts attribute a greater majority of Wickremesinghe’s vote bank to a revitalised UNP base. The onus is now on the UNPers to capitalise on the indecision of the SJB and regroup under the Centre-Right banner.
For Sri Lankans, the recent election demonstrated that Centre-Right policies have not been rejected outright but that they are looking for a permanent home. With a vacuum emerging among the leaders of Centre-Right politics, potential has now emerged for Sri Lanka to see an unprecedented number of voters staying home at this election.
With President Dissanayake having apparently called for the adoption of a ‘one-party system,’ the need for a policy-based political entity to re-emerge at this upcoming election is of utmost importance. Whether it will be a rejuvenated UNP or another Centre-Right bloc remains to be seen; however, it is clear that a balancing act is in the making.
(The writer is a Working Committee member of the UNP and the former Director of International Affairs to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe)