- WMO places an 80% probability on El Niño conditions between June and August, with a 90% likelihood of persistence through at least Nov.
- SL faces significant dry spell in July and August, threatening dry zone agriculture, drinking water
- Share of SL households unable to meet essential food needs has risen from 14% in 2024 to 20% in 2026
- Interaction between El Niño and IOD could produce flash flooding in Western Province by Oct.–Nov., rapidly shifting crisis from drought to flood
The last time Sri Lanka faced an El Niño event of comparable scope to the present was the 2016–’17 cycle, a period meteorologists and agricultural officers still cite when warning about what lies ahead.
At a high-level discussion chaired by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the Presidential Secretariat on Thursday (11), officials from the Department of Meteorology, Irrigation Department, Mahaweli Authority, Disaster Management Centre (DMC), Lanka Electricity Company, and National System Operator were brought to the same table to assess readiness.
The message from that meeting was unambiguous: the country has limited time and must act now. Ensuring an uninterrupted electricity supply, maintaining agricultural productivity, and protecting national food security were identified as the three immediate priorities.
The President instructed relevant institutions to develop comprehensive action plans covering water management for both power generation and farming, while safeguarding public drinking water supplies. He expressed confidence in Sri Lanka’s capacity to manage the challenge, pointing to the country’s handling of Cyclone Ditwah and other recent crises as evidence of national resilience.
Whether that confidence is warranted depends largely on how seriously the warnings of the country’s scientists and meteorologists are being translated into field-level action.
What El Niño is – and what it is not
El Niño is a natural occurrence characterised by the abnormal rise in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts global wind and sea current patterns. In a standard cycle, warm water flows from South America towards Asia, but during El Niño, the pressure in the Western Pacific – near Australia and Indonesia – shifts, fundamentally altering global rainfall patterns.
Sri Lanka, situated on the Western Pacific side, typically faces a significant risk of drought conditions while countries in South America experience excessive rainfall. Currently, Sri Lanka is in the midst of its Yala season, which spans from May to September and relies on the southwest monsoon to bring rain primarily to the wet-zone districts of Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, and Nuwara Eliya.
As of early April, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system was in a neutral phase following the end of the 2025–’26 La Niña. The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August, with probabilities for its continuation through at least November near or above 90%. Most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate and possibly strong.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said WMO Chief of Climate Prediction Wilfran Moufouma-Okia.
A joint Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)-WMO study shows that rising heat could make farm work unsafe for much of the year across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of the Americas, with crop yields dropping sharply. For South Asia specifically – a region where the monsoon has been described as the real finance minister, given that agriculture largely underpins Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – El Niño is likely to induce a weaker monsoon season, negatively impacting rice, grain, and sugar production.
Amid ongoing geopolitical pressures, including volatility in the Middle East and the fallout from Cyclone Ditwah, Sri Lanka enters this period from a position of existing fragility.
The local forecast
Department of Meteorology Duty Meteorologist Preethika Jayakody outlined what the coming months are likely to look like. While the island received above-average rainfall in May, the trajectory is expected to reverse sharply.
“In July and August, rainfall is expected to be quantitatively lower in many areas of the island. There is a possibility of issues arising for agriculture and drinking water, especially in the dry zones, during July and August,” she said.
The current Yala season has some buffer from the May rains. “Regarding the Yala season, the current rainfall we have is not a major problem, because a significant amount was received in May,” she added.
However, she flagged the central hills as a zone requiring particular attention, where a rainfall deficit could have cascading effects on hydropower and irrigation downstream. “Based on the data for June, we can think about how we should prepare and change our plans for the next two months,” she said.
She also noted that during the upcoming inter-monsoon, a decrease in usual wind patterns was expected to drive up the felt temperature experienced by people, with the department coordinating with the health sector on advisories – similar to previous years when agricultural working hours were adjusted to protect labourers from extreme heat. Updated forecasts are shared with the Mahaweli Water Management Committee, Consumer Affairs Authority, and Food Policy and Security Committee within the first week of every month.
Department of Meteorology Duty Meteorologist Malith Fernando described the expected pattern as one of extreme conditions – alternating between water scarcity and sudden intense rainfall. “During the second inter-monsoon (October and November), we expect an increase in rainfall. But there is also the risk of cyclone formations in the Bay of Bengal – these conditions can be expected to increase under the influence of El Niño,” he said.
The El Niño condition is expected to peak around December and continue until approximately April or May of the following year, with the early months of 2027 predicted to see a return to dry conditions and a significant rise in temperatures.
“The term ‘Super El Niño’ is often used on social media to create unnecessary fear; we identify these as strong or very strong El Niño conditions,” Fernando said.
“It is difficult to predict a ‘major drought’ definitively based on our country’s geographical location and the nature of our seasonal wind patterns. Fundamentally, we need to manage water; we must rank our needs and create priority sequences to control water usage during this period,” he said.
The IOD factor – a second variable
University of Peradeniya (UOP) Faculty of Agriculture Department of Crop Science Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe, drawing on collaborative research with Dr. Ranjith Punyawardena and Dr. Aruni Abeysekera, introduced a critical additional complexity: the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), first identified in 1999, which acts as a secondary atmospheric driver capable of amplifying or moderating El Niño’s local effects.
The team found a near-consistent historical pattern – in years when El Niño occurs, the IOD turns positive, with 2007 the only recorded exception. “What we discovered is that in years when an El Niño condition occurs, the IOD becomes positive,” Prof. Marambe said, speaking to The Sunday Morning on a previous occasion.
A positive IOD typically triggers heavy convectional rainfall in the Western Province during October and November, meaning the country could shift from managing a dry spell in August to handling flash floods within a single cultivation cycle.
The 2023 El Niño year illustrated this with painful clarity. The positive IOD brought severe rains to the central highlands, devastating vegetable cultivation and driving food prices to record highs by December. When delayed harvests arrived simultaneously in early 2024, prices crashed.
“In 2023, because of these rains, vegetable prices reached record highs in December. But by the start of the next year, when farmers replanted and harvested simultaneously, the market was flooded and prices crashed,” he said.
Prof. Marambe also drew an important distinction. “There is no proven scientific link yet between El Niño and climate change, but the effects of El Niño add to the impacts of climate change, making the resulting conditions even more severe.”
He noted that anomalies in the upper atmosphere suggested this episode could be unusually severe. “Scientists believe that due to changes in the upper atmosphere, the El Niño we face this time could be a severe one, the likes of which we have never experienced before.”
A specific threat he highlighted for paddy farmers is the phenomenon known locally as ‘Ehela Pussa’ – if the crop reaches its reproductive stage during the extreme heat of July, pollen dries out before fertilisation occurs, resulting in empty grains at harvest despite fields appearing lush. “Even if the paddy stalk forms, the grains will be empty. This is what we call ‘Ehela Pussa,’” he explained.
Water under pressure
The National Water Supply and Drainage Board (NWSDB) has not waited for the dry months to act. NWSDB Chairperson Chandana Bandara said that the board was already increasing the capacity of existing treatment plants and drilling deep wells to extract additional groundwater, with its separate groundwater section procuring additional equipment.
The NWSDB operates over 343 water supply projects nationwide. “It is predicted that El Niño will have a grave impact towards the end of next month, August, and the first weeks of September,” Bandara said. “Our plan is to optimise the use of the existing water plants.” A public awareness campaign has been launched targeting schools, universities, hospitals, and public offices. “Our sociologists are working to reduce water wastage through awareness programmes,” he said.
However, DMC Additional Secretary K.G.B. Dharmathilaka offered a counterpoint. Despite having an established administrative mechanism, necessary facilities, and specific instructions, he said that authorities had still failed to fully relieve the public of its suffering. If predicted conditions were to manifest and water sources dried up entirely, he warned, the country may have to consider the desalination and distribution of seawater. “The Government must begin planning and preparing for such a dire scenario immediately,” he said.
From field to policy: The agricultural response
Department of Agriculture Director General Dr. Thushara Wickramaarachchi placed the agricultural response squarely within the water management challenge.
Forecasts indicate El Niño conditions will intensify through June, July, and August, potentially lasting between seven and 12 months and extending into February or March next year. While dry-zone districts like Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa usually receive less rain during Yala, a specific drought situation is anticipated for the wet zone towards the end of the season in August and September.
Dr. Wickramaarachchi emphasised that water must be used with extreme thriftiness; current reservoir levels sit at approximately 65% for non-Mahaweli reservoirs and 70–72% for Mahaweli schemes, and this water must be preserved for future seasons through a harmonised effort between the electricity generator, NWSDB, Irrigation Department, and the Department of Agriculture.
At the field level, Dr. Wickramaarachchi said that immediate changes were required. Farmers are urged to stop using excess water for weed control and maintain only the minimum necessary water level for paddy, utilising herbicides instead. If pests such as caterpillars appear due to rising temperatures, farmers should avoid the traditional method of flooding fields and use targeted pesticides instead.
Rising temperatures in August also necessitate early identification of pest damage to save crops before they are lost. Soil management is critical: adding organic matter like straw, compost, and cut grass helps the soil retain moisture and reduces evaporation. Rainwater harvesting at the farm level is essential; water should be diverted into the soil to recharge the root zone rather than escape through drains into the sea, allowing perennial trees like mango and lime to survive dry spells by accessing moisture stored deep in the ground.
The Maha season, which runs from October to February and relies on the northeast monsoon, presents a different set of challenges. During the second inter-monsoon in October and November – accounting for about 30% of Sri Lanka’s rainfall – El Niño may actually cause increased rainfall and sudden flooding in the dry zone districts of Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, and Ampara.
The subsequent northeast monsoon from December to February, providing roughly 26% of annual rain, is expected to be relatively normal. Farmers should clear drainage paths to handle sudden floods and use remaining Yala soil moisture for early land preparation, reducing the water needed for the Maha season.
A serious risk is predicted for March and April – the first inter-monsoon – where rainfall is expected to decrease significantly, likely leading to a severe water shortage for the 2027 Yala season. The department recommends farmers transition to short-duration seed paddy: varieties that mature in 2.5, three, or 3.5 months, requiring less water and freeing up land more quickly. While slightly lower-yielding than medium-duration crops, they are a necessary adaptation for food security.
Farmers and officials must also work together to immediately repair leaks in tanks and irrigation canals and ensure all small village tanks and ponds are filled during rainy periods. Advanced technologies such as micro-irrigation and mulch should also be adopted where possible. Dr. Wickramaarachchi noted that agricultural extension services – both inter-provincial and provincial – were already active in educating farmers on when to plant and how to use fertiliser efficiently.
He maintained that there was no need for public panic, as Sri Lankan farmers were historically resilient and had survived various crises. He called on the media to report the scientific truth of the situation and avoid creating an artificial drought crisis. “If the situation is treated as a national requirement with cooperation between farmers, officers, and the media, the challenges of El Niño can be successfully managed,” he said.
Govt. response
Speaking in Parliament, Deputy Minister of Agriculture Namal Karunaratne highlighted that food security must remain the primary framing for the issue.
“In this situation, food security is extremely important for us. Whether it is paddy or other crops, we must work to ensure maximum food security to face the El Niño condition,” he said.
The Government doubled the fertiliser subsidy for two hectares from Rs. 3,000 to Rs. 6,000, paid directly into farmers’ accounts, and extended support to farmers growing additional crops on paddy lands, a group previously excluded. Guaranteed procurement prices have been set at Rs. 120 for nadu, Rs. 130 for samba, and Rs. 140 for keeri samba, with Government warehouses kept open through the festive season to prevent distress sales.
Prof. Marambe stressed that the Government’s most constructive role was ensuring the reliable availability of fertiliser and fuel. “If these are accessible, even if prices fluctuate, farmers can manage their work effectively.”
The plantation industry has also been drawn into the preparedness conversation. Minister of Plantation and Community Infrastructure Samantha Viddyarathna convened a special discussion on Wednesday (10) at his ministry, at which Dr. Ranjith Punyawardena conducted a comprehensive awareness session.
“Our primary focus is directed towards safeguarding the livelihoods of the plantation community while maintaining national production targets, and specifically minimising the potential impacts on vulnerable families,” Viddyarathna said. Discussions covered soil and water conservation, micro-irrigation technology, timely weather updates to farmers, capacity building of field officers, and modern technological solutions.
Food security
The El Niño threat arrives against a backdrop that leaves Sri Lanka with little margin to manoeuvre. According to the World Food Programme’s June 2026 assessment, the share of households unable to meet essential food needs has climbed from 14% in 2024 to 20% in 2026.
If current price trends continue for a further three months, an additional 1.3 million people will be at risk, including nearly 300,000 from the urban poor, newly vulnerable alongside estate populations, communities still recovering from Cyclone Ditwah, and households dependent on casual labour.
Households are increasingly selling productive assets, reducing spending on education and health, and liquidating livelihood assets in ways that erode longer-term resilience. The Maha rice and maize harvest already concluded with mixed results due to damage from Cyclone Ditwah, and compounding those losses with an El Niño-driven Yala disruption could produce a food security crisis that tests both welfare systems and supply chains simultaneously.
The Food Policy and Security Committee, meeting under the co-chairpersonship of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha and Trade, Commerce, and Food Security Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe, directed all relevant line agencies to prepare and submit comprehensive plans. Samarasinghe stressed that contingency planning must precede events rather than follow them, and a special follow-up meeting has been scheduled to continue discussions.
The consistent message from Sri Lanka’s scientific and agricultural leadership is one of calibrated readiness. For Sri Lanka, a country with dual exposure to both the dry and wet effects of the phenomenon, and carrying the added weight of an IOD interaction, the question is not whether El Niño will arrive. It is whether the coordination signalled at the Presidential Secretariat across meteorology, irrigation, agriculture, water supply, disaster management, and the plantation sectors will translate quickly enough into the field-level changes that farmers and communities will need when the rains begin, or fail, in the months ahead.