As climate change accelerates and populations grow, the frequency and severity of natural disasters, such as floods, landslides, and storms, are increasing globally. If anyone in Sri Lanka had doubts about climate change, what has occurred in the last decade and what the island has witnessed recently should be adequate to convince the most ardent disbelievers.
Following each natural or man-made disaster, Sri Lankans often question national preparedness, only to find out there is much to be done, and a great deal of neglect. Much has been said about the Meteorology Department, the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO) and others following Ditwah. However, some good news was received yesterday, with the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB) deploying special teams to cyclone-hit areas to conduct a rigorous assessment of land safety and infrastructure feasibility. According to reports, the GSMB has stated the primary goal is to identify safe zones for new housing projects while marking high-risk areas where further construction will be restricted. This is a start. Better late than never.
According to the UN and other expert bodies, effective disaster risk reduction hinges on the ability to anticipate, plan for, and mitigate these hazards. Two foundational tools in this effort are topographic mapping and advanced weather prediction, both of which underpin hazard and flood modelling – key elements for building resilient communities. For island nations like Sri Lanka, weather prediction cannot be effectively carried out with a close eye kept on the dynamics of the Indian Ocean.
Topographic mapping provides detailed representations of the Earth’s surface, capturing elevation, landforms, and hydrological features. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), such mapping is essential for understanding how hazards like floods, landslides, and storm surges will interact with the landscape. Accurate maps enable planners to identify vulnerable areas, design effective evacuation routes, and implement land-use policies that minimise risk. Participatory mapping, which involves local communities in the mapping process, further enhances disaster preparedness. It integrates indigenous knowledge with scientific data, ensuring that risk-reduction strategies are both culturally appropriate and scientifically robust. It is tragic that this type of mapping was not done in Sri Lanka in an effective manner before.
Weather prediction, especially when combined with climate modelling, allows for early warning of extreme events. The Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) has demonstrated the value of seasonal weather forecasts in agriculture and water management, helping communities in Asia take proactive measures against droughts and floods. Reliable forecasts enable timely evacuations, resource allocation, and the activation of emergency plans, reducing loss of life and property. While Sri Lanka has access to regional and international weather services, more needs to be done to develop the long-term data sets needed to effectively model weather patterns to improve the accuracy of predictions. Collectively, hazard modelling uses topographic and meteorological data to simulate the potential impacts of disasters. Flood modelling, in particular, is a powerful tool for predicting inundation patterns, assessing risk, and designing mitigation measures such as levees, drainage systems, and zoning regulations. These models can incorporate real-time data, remote sensing, and machine learning to improve accuracy and responsiveness.
Sri Lanka needs to carry out such surveys and have modelling to compile a multi-hazard risk-assessment model. Such a model would allow decision-makers to evaluate the combined effects of different hazards, such as how an earthquake might trigger landslides or how climate change intensifies flood risks. However, this depends on the said decision-makers being proactive and being focused on weather-related risks, for this structure to work. This holistic approach creates opportunities to develop disaster risk-mitigation strategies that are comprehensive and enable the Government to assign the relevant resources needed for the task.
The Government should invest in robust data collection, innovative modelling, and community engagement to break the cycle of disaster and recovery, and to build a safer, resilient, and more sustainable Sri Lanka.