• Govt. says no shortage; experts warn of long-term risks from global supply disruptions

Sri Lanka’s food security outlook is coming under renewed scrutiny against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to key shipping routes, with experts warning of long-term risks to agricultural production despite Government assurances on fertiliser availability.

The Government has sought to reassure farmers that fertiliser will remain available at controlled prices through State channels, even as rising global fuel prices continue to drive up transportation and logistics costs, stating that there is a stock of fertiliser available for planned cultivation till July. 

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Namal Karunaratne said measures had been taken to maintain a stable supply and prevent price volatility in the domestic market. 

“There is undoubtedly an impact from rising fuel prices. Transport costs have increased worldwide, and this naturally affects fertiliser as well. However, the main concern among farmers right now is whether there will be a shortage. I want to assure them that fertiliser will not run out. Supplies are available as we have already planned and pre-purchased fertiliser stocks until July,” he said. 

Karunaratne said Sri Lanka currently possessed adequate stocks of key fertiliser types required for the ongoing cultivation season, including Triple Superphosphate (TSP), Muriate of Potash (MOP), and urea, with further orders already placed. 

“Even if those shipments are delayed, there will be no disruption to fertiliser availability,” he claimed.

Amid concerns over rising prices, he urged farmers to rely on Government-backed distribution channels, warning against purchasing fertiliser from private vendors at inflated rates. 

However, agricultural experts caution that these measures may not be sufficient to shield Sri Lanka from broader structural risks. 

University of Peradeniya Faculty of Agriculture Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe warned that the country’s food system remained highly vulnerable to external shocks, particularly in the context of what he described as an ‘oil plus gas shock’ linked to the Middle East tensions. 

“The hidden devil of all of these things is food insecurity,” he said, noting that its impact was often visible only after significant damage had already occurred. 

Prof. Marambe pointed out that Sri Lanka’s heavy reliance on imports for both food and agricultural inputs, including fertiliser, seeds, and fuel, placed the country at considerable risk when global supply chains were disrupted. 

While ruling out an immediate food shortage due to the conclusion of the main cultivation season, he warned that emerging constraints could undermine future agricultural productivity. 

“As of early March, we had about 100,000 MT of urea in stock. But the total requirement exceeds that figure when you consider paddy, maize, and other crops,” he said, highlighting uncertainty over supplies of the most critical nitrogen fertiliser. 

He stressed that fertiliser availability could not be viewed in isolation, as energy costs played a central role in agricultural production. “Availability of fuel will be key with respect to the success of harvesting and land preparation,” he said, noting that more than 90% of paddy cultivation processes were mechanised. 

Prof. Marambe also warned that global disruptions, such as export restrictions by major fertiliser producers and logistical constraints in shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, could further strain supplies. 

“One-third of the sea-shipped fertiliser goes through the Strait of Hormuz. That is something we have to be mindful of,” he said. 

Although the short-term outlook remains stable, he cautioned that reduced fertiliser use due to rising costs could lead to lower yields in the coming seasons. 

He urged the Government to prioritise key sectors such as paddy, maize, and tea, warning that insufficient nutrient supply could have serious implications for both food security and foreign exchange earnings. 

Meanwhile, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in its latest report titled ‘Impacts of the 2026 Middle East conflict on global agricultural and food systems,’ warned that exports of nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea and ammonia had already been significantly restricted, posing a growing threat to agricultural production across Asia, Africa, and other regions.