• Country could have acted faster to make preparations; indecision, slow action are problems
• Important to work with regional partners, existing frameworks to improve resilience

The latest conflict in West Asia, particularly with the closure of the critical energy choke point, the Strait of Hormuz, has once again highlighted Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical flux.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, with roughly 20% of global oil consumption and 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) passing through it. Any disruption of that supply triggers a global run on the price of oil and gas – a fact that economists, policymakers, and strategists have known well for decades.

Sri Lanka’s energy dependence has long been identified as a strategic vulnerability for the island nation, and despite much uproar about such issues, the country has yet to effectively address the issue and develop effective countermeasures.

The poorly planned and mismanaged attack on Iran by Israel and its ally the United States has, over the weeks, spiralled out of control, engulfing the region and impacting almost every country in the world, as the global energy landscape is scarred by the tit-for-tat action by all parties involved. 

Since the Donald Trump administration’s announcement of its intent earlier this year, the world has watched the US military juggernaut ‘get into place’ to strike at Iran. Some nations moved to build buffers for what they knew would likely cause an energy supply disruption; others, like Sri Lanka, waited to see the outcomes of ‘round one’ to decide.

Lack of awareness

Many have asked on social media: ‘Why are we in this situation again?’ One reason may be that there is an inadequate understanding of energy supply chains and logistics amongst our policy makers, bureaucrats, and the public.

Commenting on this, maritime expert and Shippers’ Academy Colombo Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Rohan Masakorala said: “A frank answer is that, broadly speaking, the understanding of the matter is largely superficial and lacks depth. It’s a long way off from what we can do and where we stand.”

When asked if Sri Lanka could have better prepared for the crisis, Masakorala opined that more focus could have been given to the issue earlier. 

“It was clear that a strike was imminent with all the equipment being moved into the Gulf region. Officials could have better read the build-up and we could have perhaps done our procurement in a better way. Especially after the President’s speech, I believe we could have made some preparations before. On certain factors, I think even after the conflict began, we were about 10 days behind in taking decisions. At least they have been taken now. However, it seems that in general we were too slow to act.”

An island with no merchant navy or plans

One complication which has compounded securing fuel stocks for Sri Lanka is that, while suppliers are willing to sell fuel, due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, there is a shortage of petroleum product tankers available to move such cargoes.

The crisis has once again shown Sri Lanka’s almost non-existent merchant naval capacity, with the island nation only having a handful of commercial vessels which fly the nation’s flag. They are owned and operated by local companies, which can be asked to serve national interest first.  

Masakorala acknowledged the gap in national capacity, stating: “Sri Lanka needs to carry out a lot of reforms to reach what we can achieve as an island nation at a strategic location. The Gulf conflict has probably opened up our people’s eyes to the issue again. However, what happens once the dust settles and the fuel queues are no more? Everyone forgets to learn the lesson. The big talk and big plans we hear during a crisis are then left behind and what survives is muddled in a few people’s interest and not in the national interest.”

Masakorala also highlighted that Sri Lanka’s port regulatory mechanism was outdated, adding: “If the global standards are those of 200 years ago, then yes, we are there. We are up to standards.”

When asked what Sri Lanka can do to improve its port and logistics infrastructure to better weather disruptions such as what’s going on now, he said: “Port infrastructure and the related ecosystem for shipping must be updated, capacity must be built, and we must be able to use them with better efficiency. We also need to improve inland capabilities which support shipping and logistics. 

“This means better yard options; our rail system needs to be improved to connect between the Colombo-Trincomalee rail line. For example, our coal power plant is dependent on supply by sea, which is restricted to a few months of the year. If the rail connection between the west coast and Trincomalee were to be improved, we could unload coal year-round in Trincomalee and supply the power plant by rail. These are long-term improvements which will need capital. Unfortunately, there is no long-term master plan which is well coordinated, to my knowledge, to execute such changes.”

Prolonged conflict?

The longevity of the current conflict will determine global energy and fertiliser supply issues, and despite the US President’s recent comments that he hopes to be ‘winding down’ the attack, many remain sceptical about the status of the conflict, which has now spread across the region.

When asked how likely the current conflict between Israel/US and Iran is to continue to impact the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the disruption and threat of attack against commercial shipping would last for a long period, Indian Ocean maritime security expert and Adjunct Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington Nilanthi Samaranayake, speaking to The Sunday Morning, said: “Even before 1979, the Shah of Iran – a US ally – called the strait Iran’s ‘jugular vein’. Iran will leverage its geography for the duration of this conflict, with full implications for shipping.”

With the United States moving to deploy a US Marine Expeditionary Unit (a 2,000-plus strong formation that specialises in amphibious operations and air-land operations), the US is likely considering putting ‘boots on the ground’ as the next tactic in this conflict.

When asked what Sri Lanka can do to build resilience to face future shocks to freedom of navigation, which the island depends on, Samaranayake said: “Supply chain resilience has become a hot topic. India is part of initiatives such as Pax Silica. Sri Lanka may wish to coordinate with partners such as India to explore opportunities to build the capacity of its sea services and build resilience to shocks such as those seen this month. The Colombo Security Conclave could be a venue to pursue regional cooperation on maritime resilience.”

Partners and national interest

The US, which commenced this bout of conflict with Iran alongside Israel, had not consulted its traditional allies or friends about it. According to reports from the countries in the region that host US military bases, it had also ignored warnings by the host nations not to attack Iran. However, the US administration has now called on its allies – NATO and the Quad – to help it ensure the Strait of Hormuz is free and safe for navigation for all.

Many nations have expressed displeasure or reluctance to respond to the request. However, as the conflict is prolonged, the impact on all countries grows. Earlier, when the Houthi rebels started attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Sri Lanka answered the call for collective action under a multinational coalition effort termed Operation Prosperity Guardian, and dispatched a Navy patrol vessel to assist in the mission – a first by Sri Lanka.

When asked if Sri Lanka should consider doing the same again if there is a multinational effort to escort commercial vessels to safety from the Strait of Hormuz, Samaranayake opined: “Sri Lanka may not have the necessary defences to conduct escorts and risk damage to its naval platforms and crews, so this operational consideration would inform such a decision. Regardless, Sri Lanka has already commanded the CTF-154 task force of Combined Maritime Forces and demonstrated its commitment to building maritime security in the Western Indian Ocean. The more experience the Sri Lanka Navy gains from contributing to international naval partnerships, the stronger its operations will be to defend the country’s national interests in the future.”

However, former Chief of Staff of the Sri Lanka Navy and maritime security expert Rear Admiral (Retd) Y.N. Jayarathna told The Sunday Morning that Sri Lanka should stick to its immediate neighbourhood and conduct operations closer to home, based on our national interest.

“The Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are not our area of operation, as these volatile areas are under numerous strategic interests of the global players. We should not put our fingers into it; rather we should focus on our areas of interest in the Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal and the Southern seas. Our stand both in terms of UNCLOS and the Navy’s capacity is much needed for all global players, so let’s play the card for our own interests, not someone else’s,” he said.

Securing what we have

Jayarathne also advocated the protection of the critical maritime infrastructure which Sri Lanka already has and depends on: “Sri Lanka needs to invest in the protection of critical infrastructures at the coastline (such as the coal power plant) and our ports by investing in shore-based surveillance systems of different layers, from horizon to territorial waters, to cover 30 nautical miles as we used to do in the separatist terrorism period. Then we need to cover our EEZ at least in the eastern and south-eastern sectors. Beyond that, we need to subscribe to commercial sources as well as friendly governments to improve our maritime domain awareness. 

“All commercial ports need underwater sensors and vessel traffic monitoring plus air defence systems to detect drones and take action. This is needed in the Palk Bay, Palk Strait, and the Gulf of Mannar at least in the first phase. Rather than weapons, which are costly in nature, we need to invest in surveillance and monitoring systems that will give us an edge over the competition to be better prepared.”