As the ongoing conflict in the Middle East sends ripples across the Indian Ocean, most notably with the attack on the Iranian warship IRIS Dena, fresh geopolitical concerns are emerging for the region. Against this backdrop of rising tensions and shifting global dynamics, The Daily Morning spoke with geopolitical analyst Asanga Abeyagoonasekera on the wider implications for South Asia and Sri Lanka.

Abeyagoonasekera is a Sri Lankan geopolitics and international security analyst, academic, and author known for his work on foreign policy, regional security, and global power dynamics. He has written extensively on Sri Lanka’s strategic position in an evolving global order, with notable works including Sri Lanka at Crossroads (2019), Conundrum of an Island (2021), and Teardrop Diplomacy (2023). His latest book, Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, examines a region in transition amid intensifying global competition.

In this interview, he reflects on shifting global power structures, the growing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean, and how external conflicts are increasingly shaping regional stability, while also assessing Sri Lanka’s place at the centre of an increasingly contested geopolitical landscape.

Following are excerpts of the interview

Your latest work, Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia examines a region in transition. In light of the current conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions in the Indian Ocean, do you believe those “winds of change” are accelerating faster than you anticipated?

Yes — and significantly so. The pace of geopolitical disruption today is moving faster than many recent projections. Conflicts in the Middle East, rising maritime insecurity in the Indian Ocean, and intensifying US–China competition are compressing strategic timelines. What once appeared as gradual power transition is now rapid recalibration. There are multiple theatres, Ukraine, Latin America, Taiwan and Middle East.

For Sri Lanka and the wider region, this means that decisions which used to have long-term implications now have immediate strategic consequences. The winds are not merely shifting direction — they are strengthening.

We are all, in many ways, living under the influence of geopolitics. The world may appear vast, but it is shaped by narrow maritime corridors and critical choke points — such as the Strait of Hormuz — that directly affect energy flows, food prices, supply chains, and ultimately daily life. What happens in distant waters can influence what reaches our kitchens, our workplaces, and our economies.

Winds of Change is part of a broader trilogy, following Sri Lanka at Crossroads and Conundrum of an Island. Across these works, I have attempted to map the geo-strategic headwinds facing a small island state and its surrounding region amid major power rivalry. Whether we engage with geopolitics or not, geopolitics engages with us. 

With conflicts in the Middle East, tensions in Europe, and growing strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, are we witnessing a fundamental shift in the global order?

We are in the midst of a transition — from a system that was largely unipolar-leaning toward a more fragmented multipolar order.

The combined pressures of war in Europe, instability in the Middle East, and strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific are reshaping alliances, trade corridors, energy security, and maritime strategy. Rather than a single dominant global architecture, we are seeing overlapping spheres of influence and competing regional frameworks. This shift is structural, not temporary. It reflects deeper geopolitical realignments that extend beyond individual conflicts.

At the same time, it is important to recognise that the US operates with long-standing institutional structures. Presidential transitions influence tone and priorities, but core strategic machinery often remains consistent.

In my book, I also engage with the debate shaped by my teacher, Professor Kishore Mahbubani, whose work emphasises the structural rise of China. The data and field observations I documented across Southeast Asia and South Asia — from Cambodia, Vietnam, and Myanmar to India and its neighbourhood — indicate a noticeable shift in regional perceptions. There is growing strategic recalibration, and in some cases, a trust deficit toward traditional Western leadership, alongside increasing engagement with Asian civilisational powers.

This does not suggest an absolute decline of one power or the inevitable rise of another. 

You outline how external conflicts increasingly shape regional stability. With the ongoing Middle East conflict now affecting energy flows and maritime routes, how do you see its spillover impacting South Asia and, specifically, Sri Lanka?

The Middle East conflict has significant spillover effects on South Asia and Sri Lanka. Rising oil prices directly impact Sri Lanka’s import-dependent economy, increasing transport costs, inflation, and pressure on households. As energy costs rise, the impact spreads across the broader economy.

Maritime insecurity in the Indian Ocean further increases shipping costs and insurance premiums, reducing trade competitiveness and raising the cost of both imports and exports. For a trade-dependent island nation, such disruptions have immediate consequences. At the same time, Sri Lanka must navigate complex diplomatic realities. For Sri Lanka — as an island economy positioned at the heart of the Indian Ocean — maritime stability is not optional

A key theme in your work is the growing importance of the Indian Ocean. Given the recent incidents, including attacks on vessels near Sri Lankan territorial waters, are we witnessing the Indian Ocean increasingly becoming an active geopolitical theatre?

Yes. The Indian Ocean is no longer simply a passive trade corridor — it is increasingly becoming an active geopolitical theatre. For decades, it functioned primarily as a commercial maritime highway. Today, however, it is also a space of strategic competition, naval presence, surveillance activity, and power projection.

We are witnessing increased naval deployments and heightened attention around critical chokepoints that carry a significant share of global energy flows and trade. The security of sea lanes and undersea communication cables has become central to geopolitical calculations. Any instability in these waters has consequences far beyond the region.

Sri Lanka’s geographic position places it directly within this evolving environment. In an increasingly contested maritime space, geography is once again a decisive factor.

Recent incidents in the region have also prompted renewed strategic reflection in India. Developments perceived as occurring within India’s broader maritime neighbourhood naturally influence its defence and foreign policy thinking. Such events may encourage deeper reassessment of doctrines related to maritime security, regional coordination, and crisis management.

In this context, policymakers such as Dr.Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and strategic thinkers inspired by the legacy of K. Subrahmanyam may revisit long-standing approaches to managing major power rivalry, balancing deterrence with regional stability, and strengthening neighbourhood trust. India’s broader strategic challenge is not only to maintain influence, but to deepen confidence within its periphery. The objective should be for neighbouring states to say “India is great” through partnership, stability, and trust — rather than through assertion alone.

Ultimately, the Indian Ocean’s transformation into a strategic theatre means that diplomacy, defence, and regional cooperation must evolve together. For Sri Lanka and its neighbours, this environment presents both risks and opportunities. 

You discuss India’s aspirations as a regional power and net security provider. However, its relatively restrained response to the attack on the Iranian ship in its maritime neighbourhood has drawn attention. Does this reflect strategic caution, or are there limits to India’s ability to act decisively in the Indian Ocean?

India’s approach reflects calibrated strategic restraint rather than hesitation. As a rising power and an emerging net security provider in the Indian Ocean region, India must carefully balance deterrence with regional stability. 

However, India’s ability to project force or respond decisively in any maritime situation is shaped by multiple factors — including diplomatic alignments, domestic political considerations, economic priorities, and the broader geopolitical environment. In today’s interconnected system, every action carries potential ripple effects across alliances, trade relationships, and regional perceptions.

In complex maritime theatres like the Indian Ocean, responses are often measured and multilayered. Strategic signalling — through naval presence, joint exercises, intelligence cooperation, or diplomatic messaging — can sometimes achieve objectives without escalating tensions. Escalation management is a critical component of modern security strategy, especially in environments where multiple major powers operate simultaneously.

India also operates within a delicate regional balance, where its neighbourhood policy, global partnerships, and great-power engagements must remain consistent. Decisions are therefore evaluated not only in terms of immediate impact but also long-term regional credibility and strategic trust.

Your book also highlights China’s expanding influence through economic and strategic initiatives. In the context of rising instability in the region, do you see China increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean, and how might that reshape the regional balance?

China’s presence in the Indian Ocean is likely to expand, driven primarily by its economic interests, energy security needs, and long-term strategic planning. Through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China has already developed a network of ports, logistics hubs, and infrastructure projects across the region. While many of these are commercial in nature, several have clear dual-use potential — supporting both economic activity and strategic access.

In periods of instability, major powers tend to reinforce their maritime presence to safeguard trade routes, energy flows, and overseas investments. For China, whose economy is heavily dependent on maritime supply chains — particularly oil shipments through the Indian Ocean — ensuring secure sea lanes becomes a critical priority. This naturally leads to greater naval visibility, expanded logistical capabilities, and deeper engagement with regional partners.

At the same time, China’s growing footprint will inevitably influence the regional balance of power. It is likely to prompt strategic responses from India, which views the Indian Ocean as its primary sphere of influence, as well as from the US and its Indo-Pacific partners. This dynamic could lead to increased naval deployments, enhanced security cooperation, and a more competitive maritime environment.

China’s expanding presence reflects a broader reality: the Indian Ocean is becoming central to global geopolitics. As competition intensifies, the region will increasingly serve as a stage where economic ambition and strategic rivalry intersect.

 You describe South Asia as being at a geopolitical crossroads. Would you say Sri Lanka sits at the very centre of that crossroads today, particularly given its location, economic vulnerabilities, and ties with multiple global powers?

Absolutely, this is the reason to name my first volume several years ago ‘Sri Lanka at Crossroads’. Sri Lanka sits at the very centre of today’s geopolitical crossroads. Its location places it at the intersection of China’s maritime economic corridors, India’s security perimeter, the USs’ Indo-Pacific strategy, Middle Eastern energy flows, and Southeast Asian trade networks. This convergence of strategic interests makes Sri Lanka far more than a small island state — it is a critical node in the evolving regional order.

At the same time, Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerabilities add layers of complexity to this strategic position. These factors make the country not only highly significant but also geopolitically sensitive

A recurring theme in your work is the challenge faced by smaller States in maintaining strategic autonomy. Given Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis and reliance on external partners, is true strategic independence still realistic?

For a country like Sri Lanka, whose economy and security are closely tied to external partners, complete detachment from global power structures is neither practical nor desirable.

However, strategic autonomy remains both achievable and essential. At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 in Davos, Mark Carney emphasised that the global order is undergoing a “rupture,” and that middle and smaller states must adapt by strengthening their own strategic agency. 

For Sri Lanka, this means a careful balancing act — engaging China, India, the US, and others without overreliance on any single actor. Economic stability, in particular, is the foundation of strategic flexibility; without it, foreign policy choices become constrained. Autonomy today is not about isolation

For Sri Lanka, the challenge — and opportunity — is to convert its strategic location into leverage, ensuring that engagement with global powers enhances national interest while preserving independence of choice.

If the developments we are seeing today, from Middle East tensions to maritime insecurity, were to be included in a new edition of your book, what key lessons or warnings would you emphasise for policymakers in Sri Lanka?

If I were to include recent developments in a new edition, I would emphasise several critical lessons for policymakers. For an island nation like Sri Lanka, the stability of sea lanes, the safety of shipping routes, and the security of surrounding waters are directly linked to economic survival, energy access, and overall sovereignty. Any disruption in the maritime domain quickly translates into domestic economic and security challenges.

Second, economic resilience determines geopolitical flexibility. A country with a stable, diversified, and self-sustaining economy has far greater room to manoeuvre in its foreign policy. 

Third, external crises will increasingly shape domestic stability. In today’s interconnected world, conflicts in distant regions — whether in the Middle East, Europe, or elsewhere — have immediate ripple effects on energy prices, trade flows, inflation, and public sentiment within Sri Lanka. 

Taken together, these lessons point to a broader shift in thinking that is required. Sri Lanka must integrate geopolitics into its economic planning and national development strategy. In an era of intensifying global competition and uncertainty, geopolitics is not separate from development — it is central to it.

As these geopolitical “winds of change” continue to intensify, what are the most critical risks and opportunities Sri Lanka must prepare for over the next five to ten years?

Over the next five to ten years, Sri Lanka will face a set of interconnected risks shaped by an increasingly uncertain global environment. Maritime insecurity in the Indian Ocean remains a primary concern. At the same time, the escalation of US–China rivalry will place additional pressure on smaller states to navigate competing strategic interests without compromising their sovereignty. Energy price shocks will continue to strain Sri Lanka’s import-dependent economy, while overdependence on any single external partner could limit policy flexibility. 

Yet alongside these risks, Sri Lanka has significant opportunities. Its geographic location positions it to develop as a strategic logistics and maritime hub in the Indian Ocean. There is also potential to accelerate a renewable energy transition. Sri Lanka can play a greater role in regional connectivity, linking South and Southeast Asia through trade, services, and infrastructure. By pursuing balanced diplomacy among major powers, the country can maintain strategic autonomy while benefiting from diverse partnerships. Furthermore, leveraging its position for trade, digital infrastructure, and services could unlock new avenues of growth.

Ultimately, Sri Lanka’s future will depend on how it interprets its geography — whether as a source of vulnerability or as a form of strategic capital.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the interviewee, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication