“So, in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and strike at what is weak” – ‘The Art of War’ by Sun Tzu
When Donald Trump took oath as the 47th President of the United States of America, the whole world watched in anticipation as to what the first few hours of his second round in the presidency would bring. While striking an aggressive tone on domestic policy and taking up the attack on illegal immigration; Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI); and rule of law, Trump’s foreign policy is still unclear.
From Trump’s actions and statements it appears he has taken to heart the words of Sun Tzu, choosing to go after the perceived weaker opponents on the global stage while pushing down the metaphorical road the challenges posed by the economic powerhouses.
Having spent the greater part of his first term in the Oval Office focused on a trade war with China, this time around Trump has set his targets on re-acquiring the Panama Canal and incorporating Greenland into the US’s sphere of influence.
As regards China, Trump told reporters that he was considering imposing a 10% tariff on China as early as February. While comments regarding this matter have been subdued in comparison to the past, with some suggesting that Trump may pursue a more conciliatory tone, other political pundits have suggested his previous trade war may expand to a global stage. Alongside China, Trump has indicated that Canada, Mexico, the European Union (EU), and even India will be targeted.
While the path that Trump’s administration will choose to pursue regarding foreign policy remains uncertain, economic might rather than military prowess appears to be the weapon of choice. For a region such as Asia, the absence of a looming threat of conflict will provide a welcome breathing space.
Asia, and the Indian Ocean in particular, should now grab the opportunity presented to them with both hands.
Asia’s position in the pecking order
In 1964 it was first proposed by Sri Lanka, at the Non-Aligned Heads of State Conference in Cairo, that the Indian Ocean be considered the Indian Ocean Zone of Peace (IOZP). In 1971 the United Nations (UN) officially adopted a resolution declaring the Indian Ocean a zone of peace. Beyond this, however, the characterisation and structure of the Indian Ocean has remained inconclusive.
Blocs such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) have all emerged with links to the region. Yet, the absence of a single, structured body with a cohesive vision for the region has allowed the encroachment of big-power rivalry and political divisions.
In recent months and years, the calls for the Indian Ocean to be devoid of big-power rivalry has grown in crescendo. Speaking at the Indian Ocean Conference in Australia in 2024, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe outlined the absence of a “single, objective geopolitical construct” in the Indian Ocean, instead drawing attention to the “contested vision with multiple interpretations” which inhabits the region.
With the US turning its attention to Europe and the American continent, Asia has found itself with the opportunity to re-evaluate its position in the global pecking order. As per PricewaterhouseCoopers, two of the top 10 economies in the world are in the Indian Ocean (India and Indonesia); by 2050 it is predicted that these two nations will rise up to the top five.
It is estimated that over 40% of the world’s population resides in South Asia alone. Currently 2.9 billion people reside in countries along the Indian Ocean. Approximately 9.8 billion tonnes of cargo, or over one-third of maritime bulk cargo, passes through the Indian Ocean on a yearly basis. On a single day, 40% of global oil production travels through the Indian Ocean and its chokepoints.
Positioned along the global trading routes, countries such as Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Pakistan will see their ports act as linchpins for the connection of East Asia with West Asia and Europe. The Indian Ocean accounts for over $ 6 trillion in trade.
Limitless challenges
There is no denying the integral role that this region will play in shaping global growth, while assisting a shift in the international power dynamics from Europe and the US to Asia. While the prospects in the Indian Ocean are limitless, it is not without its challenges.
The complex cultural, political, and religious structures inhabiting the region and its member states have proven to be stumbling blocks in the past. Piracy and the drug and arms trades have also inhabited the Indian Ocean, affecting global trading routes with increased security costs for shipping companies.
In 2023-’24, attacks by Houthi rebels on the shipping lines in the Red Sea resulted in shipping costs nearly doubling, as some companies diverted shipments away from the Suez Canal and past the Cape of Good Hope along the southern African coast.
Non-state actors alone are not the cause for disruptions in the region. Disputes and conflict between member states have also proven to be barriers to further growth and development. The India-Pakistan conflict continues to hold back South Asia’s economic integration, while territorial disputes between the European powers and their former colonies including Mauritius and Madagascar have also complicated matters.
While the Indian Ocean has its own obstacles to overcome, external influences such as big-power rivalry and changing global outlooks by the US and Europe are placing further pressure on the member nations in the region.
Agreements such as AUKUS have seen the militarisation of the Indian Ocean. While Trump has indicated that the US’s allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) must be willing to pay their “fair share,” commentary on the future of AUKUS has remained mute.
However, newly sworn-in Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stressed in the past what he considers to be an overarching threat of China. As such, it appears unlikely that AUKUS will see any significant change in direction. For the smaller nations in the Indian Ocean, the presence of a military pact in the region presents a conflict with the long-adhered-to zone of peace principle.
The absence of their voices at the table during the formation of such alliances highlights the absence of a clear defence pact/policy among all member states of the Indian Ocean. Similarly, while India and Japan view the Quad as an economic dialogue partnership, the US and Australia place a greater emphasis on security matters. Through these agreements and groupings, big-power rivalry has encroached into the region.
Looking inward for support
Separately, the Trump administration has undertaken steps to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Accord. Effectively this means the world’s second largest polluter will no longer restrain its industries in their contribution to global warming.
For the Indian Ocean, and in particular the island states, climate change is leaving an everlasting impact on their economies and populace. While nations such as the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Seychelles have championed the blue economy, the recent developments in the US threaten to undo any progress made in recent years.
With protectionism and isolationism once again returning to the forefront of US foreign policy, regions such as the Indian Ocean will need to look among themselves for support. Organisations such as the IORA provide such platforms. Recognising climate change and defence policies for the region are paramount to the regional bloc’s success and, in turn, its further growth.
The expansion of big-power rivalry into the region, through pacts such as AUKUS, has threatened the Indian Ocean’s zone of peace. An all encompassing policy among member states in the region on maritime security, freedom of navigation, and defence of territorial waters will go a long way in ensuring peaceful cohabitation between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific.
In 2023, at COP28, Sri Lanka unveiled the ‘Tropical Belt Initiative’. This was a proposal that would utilise the Indian Ocean as a global sink, while expanding on the renewable energy resources in the region. It has been surmised that such an initiative would have a lasting impact on other regions in the world.
Further discussions between member states in the IORA on this and other potential strategies to combat climate change are essential. A structured policy in regard to climate change emanating from the Indian Ocean will increase pressure on the world’s largest polluters.
The old adage, ‘united we stand, divided we fall’ resonates with the Indian Ocean. A pivotal zone in the global economy’s future, the Indian Ocean has the necessary leverage to complete the power shift from Europe and the US to Asia. Under Trump, the necessary impetus has been provided; the onus is now on the member nations of the Indian Ocean to not waste the opportunity that lies before them.
(The writer served as the Director of International Affairs to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe)