No discussion about foreign policy is complete without acknowledging geopolitical realities. The world is entering an era often described as the "great fragmentation", creating growing uncertainty and instability in international affairs.
Recently, at the Bay of Bengal Conversation in Bangladesh, several geopolitical experts discussed the major crises shaping global politics today. The event was organised by the Centre for Governance Studies.
Among the speakers, the former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed particularly impressed. He spoke with the clarity and strategic understanding expected from the leader of a small State. He explained: "We have greater rivalry in the Indian Ocean again, with big powers wanting to establish a foothold. We have always understood India as our biggest neighbour. We have always had a foreign policy that places India first. If we try to disrupt that, it might be difficult for us to maintain our sovereignty." He added: "I’m not a non-aligned person. I believe that there should be alignment in your ideology and in the way that you want to develop your country. I wouldn’t go for non-alignment."
The question of what kind of foreign policy that a country like Sri Lanka should pursue remains a subject of debate. This is partly because Sri Lanka continues to rely on Cold War-era concepts such as "non-alignment", "neutrality", and "balancing" when framing its foreign policy.
In reality, these concepts were designed as strategies to avoid becoming entangled in the rivalries of major powers. As President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has stated, Sri Lanka would not become a "sandwich" between India and China. However, maintaining such a position is not easy amid the intensifying United States (US)-China great-power competition. It is an extremely difficult balancing act in which even a small mistake can have serious consequences.
Sri Lanka has experienced this before. President Junius Richard Jayewardene arguably overestimated Sri Lanka's strategic autonomy, and the country ultimately paid the price. Colombo faced a similar challenge when President Percy Mahendra Mahinda Rajapaksa deepened ties with China.
Given these historical experiences, it is worth questioning whether the current international environment still allows countries to remain genuinely non-aligned or neutral. The controversy surrounding the Iranian vessels stranded just outside Sri Lanka's 12-nautical-mile territorial waters off Galle provides a useful example. If Sri Lanka was fully committed to neutrality, one could argue that assistance should have been provided on humanitarian grounds. However, concerns over possible repercussions from the US significantly limited Colombo's room for manoeuvre. Washington had warned countries and service providers against supplying food, water, fuel, medicines, or other forms of support to sanctioned Iranian vessels.
The practical viability of neutrality
This episode raises serious questions about the practical viability of neutrality in today's geopolitical environment. The Sri Lankan Government could justifiably argue that it did not wish to become involved in a Middle Eastern conflict. Yet, others might contend that humanitarian considerations should transcend geopolitical disputes. Viewed through the lens of great-power rivalry, the costs of antagonising the US may outweigh the benefits of adhering to a strict interpretation of neutrality. In this sense, neutrality increasingly appears less like a genuine policy option and more like a constrained choice shaped by the interests and influence of powerful states.
Small states often speak of "strategic autonomy" and "independent decision-making". While such language may be appealing in domestic politics, it carries far less weight when dealing with powerful nations. Viewed through a geopolitical lens, the sovereignty of smaller states is often constrained by the interests, security concerns, and strategic calculations of great powers.
Sri Lanka itself provides a clear example. Several years ago, the Chinese firm Sinosoar-Etechwin secured a contract to build hybrid renewable energy systems on islands off the Jaffna coast. Although concerns were raised about the procurement process, the projects were later cancelled by the Sri Lankan Government. China subsequently alleged that a third party had influenced Colombo's decision, a clear reference to India. The episode demonstrated how geopolitical considerations can override purely economic decisions in small states caught between competing powers.
In theory, Sri Lanka has every sovereign right to choose its economic partners. In practice, however, geopolitical realities place limits on that freedom. If a particular project is viewed by India as a threat to its national security, Sri Lanka's sovereignty alone cannot shield it.
As a small State located just off India's Southern coast, Sri Lanka lacks the military capability to provide credible assurances against potential security risks to India. From this perspective, China's growing presence near India's southern coastline, even under the banner of economic investment, can be viewed by New Delhi (India) as a national security concern. Consequently, when Sri Lanka makes decisions that India perceives as strategically harmful, diplomatic, economic, or political pressure from India, as both a regional power and immediate neighbour, becomes difficult to avoid.
China is a global power whose influence increasingly extends through economic engagement. The US has identified China as its “near peer competitor”. Against this backdrop, it is reasonable to ask why a major power such as China would devote attention to Sri Lanka's Northern Province, particularly Jaffna, a region that offers limited economic returns.
What economic benefit does China gain from operating small ice cream businesses in Jaffna? Why is Beijing interested in establishing a foothold in the region? The explanation may be less economic than strategic.
The strategic importance of Jaffna lies in its proximity to India. While India prioritises connectivity and engagement with Northern Sri Lanka, China may see long-term geopolitical value in expanding its presence there. Additionally, South India, particularly Tamil Nadu, occupies a unique place in India's domestic politics, making it a region of considerable strategic interest.
A postdoctoral research position
Many in Sri Lanka paid little attention to a job advertisement published by the Law Faculty at The Chinese University of Hong Kong for a postdoctoral research position linked to a project conducted in collaboration with the Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam organisation. The project proposed examining political and legal debates surrounding the establishment of an independent Tamil state and the relevant international legal frameworks. Regardless of one's interpretation, such developments inevitably raise geopolitical questions that deserve closer examination.
If China seeks a greater presence in Sri Lanka's Northern and Eastern Provinces, what are Beijing's long-term motivations? In international politics, countries can never be entirely certain of another state's future intentions. As a result, they tend to prepare for worst-case scenarios rather than best-case assumptions. If India views China's presence in Sri Lanka's Northern and Eastern Provinces as a potential long-term strategic challenge, such concerns cannot simply be dismissed. Nor can Sri Lanka afford to ignore them, given the realities of geography and its proximity to India.
The same logic helps explain China's acquisition of a 99-year lease over the Hambantota Port. The Port's strategic location, rather than its immediate commercial performance, appears to have been the primary attraction. In this sense, Sri Lanka has already become entangled in a major geopolitical competition from which it may find it difficult to disengage.
Likewise, as Sri Lanka's closest neighbour and natural partner, India's interest in Sri Lanka's Northern and Eastern Provinces is driven not only by strategic considerations but also by deep historical, cultural, and people-to-people ties. Geography ensures that these realities cannot be ignored, regardless of the Government in power in Colombo.
The writer is a political analyst and the founding Director of the think tank based in Trincomalee, the Trinco Centre for Strategic Studies
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The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication