With the recent tensions between India and Pakistan since an attack on tourists in India-administered Pahalgam in Kashmir last month, warnings have been sounded that a potential re-escalation may threaten food security across Asia, including Sri Lanka, despite the ceasefire announced yesterday (10) between the two nations, pending further discussion. 

One immediate implication of extended hostilities is imports, given that several Southeast Asian countries rely on food imports from India and Pakistan, including staples such as rice.

India is the world’s top rice exporter, accounting for some 40% of the global trade in the cereal, while Pakistan is the fourth largest exporter. Both countries also sell onions and other essential foodstuff to import-reliant Southeast Asian nations.

According to a 2023 BBC report, in top consuming countries in Asia – Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka, for example – the share of rice consumption in total calorie intake a day ranges from 40% to 67%. Any prolonged conflict between India and Pakistan therefore risks choking off these vital supplies or driving up prices.   

Malaysia imports about 40% of its rice from the two nations, while Indonesia relies on imports from India to meet its shortfall in rice production. Malaysia has already warned that tensions between India and Pakistan could potentially disrupt rice imports to the heavily dependent Southeast Asian nation, prompting it to look elsewhere for supplies.

Food imports are similarly essential for Sri Lanka’s food security: imported calories contribute about 22% of the caloric consumption of an average Sri Lankan household and Sri Lanka also cannot produce certain crops such as lentils and wheat due to agronomic reasons, which makes importing the only option (IPS, 2022).

No anticipation of impact: Importers

Addressing how the potential exacerbation of tensions would affect food imports, former President of the Essential Food Commodities Importers and Traders Association G. Illamanathan told The Sunday Morning that importers were not anticipating any impact at present, noting that they were yet to feel any price fluctuations. 

“So far there is nothing. We don’t expect anything as such; there is no shortage. The supply is there. We get most food items from India and Pakistan. Pakistan mainly supplies potatoes, onions, and basmati rice. Other than that, almost 80% of food items are imported from India, such as potatoes, onions, and red chillies. In addition, Mysore dhal is imported from Australia and garlic from China.”

He further pointed out that since most of Sri Lanka’s imports were from the southern part of India rather than its northern part, importers were currently not making any preparations for potential disruptions given that they did not feel that there would be any shortage. 

Too early to tell

Meanwhile, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) Research Fellow Dr. Asanka Wijesinghe noted that it was too premature to forecast anything at this juncture. 

“Sri Lanka mainly imports food and other raw materials from India and we export some products to Pakistan under the Sri Lanka-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement. Right now, we cannot predict anything; if it doesn’t become a full-blown war, I don’t think there will be an impact (on Sri Lanka’s food supply),” he said. 

Outlining the policy backdrop for a potential restriction of exports, Dr. Wijesinghe said: “India has export controls. They generally impose these when they think that the domestic harvest is not enough for domestic consumption, since domestic prices will go up at that point. 

“India is a very unique country, because it is a surplus producer in some years, while it is a net consumer in other years given its massive population. Therefore, when they feel that the domestic price is rising, they impose export controls.”

While noting that India had previously imposed export controls, he reiterated that it was impossible to predict anything at present. “We cannot predict anything right now. If prices go up, they will then resort to export controls, but at this point, it is hard to say what will happen.”

Previously, in the midst of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022, India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice as it tried to augment supplies and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting. 

Similarly, in 2023, India, the world’s biggest exporter of onions, banned their export following a drop in production, which led to onion prices nearly doubling in Sri Lanka. 

Bad harvest, potential shortage 

However, experts warn that the domestic food security situation might complicate matters. University of Peradeniya (UOP) Senior Professor in Crop Science Buddhi Marambe noted: “Based on the scientific calculations we have done, we need to import about 350,000 MT of rice to feed the nation for about one-and-a-half months this year.”

According to him, the reality is that “there is a shortage already, because when you look at the drop in yields of the Maha season, even if we have a fully-fledged cultivation in the Yala season for paddy alone, we will still not meet the requirement”.

“What we have to understand is we have two cultivating seasons. One cultivating season started the previous year and we have already harvested it. We are now in the second cultivation season. The overall grain stocks indicate the production of two cultivating seasons. 

“Unfortunately, in terms of paddy, considering the overall scenario, the current Maha season harvest is the lowest since 2019, excluding 2022, when we had a massive reduction due to bad policymaking,” Prof. Marambe said.

“We have been telling the Government that even if we cultivate the full extent of the Yala season, there will still be a problem where we need to import at least rice – our main staple,” he warned, noting that the Government had decided to allow importers to bring down rice in April. 

“If the India-Pakistan struggle escalates, it will naturally affect international transportation and trade, especially in the region,” he said. Should there be a war, he noted that India would also be looking after its own interests in terms of food security by maintaining its stocks to support domestic consumption. 

“That’s a risk as I see it right now, because we are in a dire situation where we need to import rice. But India isn’t the only source we have; there are other sources in the region. Still, India is the closest and cheapest source for us to purchase rice from.” he added.

Rice is not the only item that will be affected. “We import maize for poultry feed production because we produce less than 50% of the requirement, so most of the maize will have to be imported to support the poultry industry in Sri Lanka.”

Moreover, when it comes to B onions, since Sri Lanka can produce only up to a maximum of about 62% of its requirement on its own soil, that means at least 40% will have to be imported every year. Any potential disruption in the region could lead to either an insufficient quantity of imports or high transportation costs, insurance, and so on, embedded into import costs even if quantities are available. 

Despite this precarious situation, Sri Lanka only possesses estimates and not concrete numbers on the nature of its grain reserves. 

Prof. Marambe noted: “What we have are estimates, but we do not know where the stocks are. This has been an eternal problem in this country. We know the calculated paddy harvest, but if you were to ask any person where this harvest is, I don’t think a single individual in this country would be able to answer.”

When questioned on the subject by The Sunday Morning, Deputy Minister of Agriculture Namal Karunaratne said: “At present, there is no significant grain reserve in possession of the Government, since the Yala season harvesting is ongoing.” When questioned about the available data on grain reserves, he said that discussions were ongoing in that regard as well. 

Potential of alternative markets

Should the situation necessitate it, alternative markets also exist for Sri Lanka. 

However, Illamanathan dismissed the need to look for alternative markets, noting that importing from India was the most convenient option, since importing from other countries would result in longer shipment times and procedures. 

Nevertheless, Dr. Wijesinghe noted that should India impose export controls, Sri Lanka would have to import rice varieties, perhaps from China, while Bangladesh exists as an alternative market for potatoes. 

However, he opined that the situation would not escalate to that level. “India and Pakistan will try their best to maintain exports because the dollar is very important for them.”

Still in discussions

Meanwhile, Ministry of Trade, Commerce, Food Security, and Cooperative Development Secretary K.A. Vimalenthirarajah, who is also part of the Ministerial Consultative Committee on Trade, Commerce, Food Security, and Cooperative Development, while pointing out that any speculation on potential impact would be theoretical at this stage, said that the issue would be discussed at the next meeting of the Food Security Committee. 

He added that any decisions on the measures taken to deal with the possible impact of tensions between India and Pakistan such as alternative markets and policy decisions would be conveyed to the public after the meeting.  

When asked whether the committee was considering the potential impacts of the regional geopolitical tensions, he said that the situation had been discussed, however noting that the committee was also focused on and continuously discussing other prominent long-term issues such as climate change, lower production in the domestic market, etc. 

Noting that there were anticipated shortages in certain varieties of rice, he said that this would be considered at the next committee meeting and that it would take a decision on whether to import. 

Similarly, Deputy Minister Karunaratne said that the Government was undertaking discussions on the India-Pakistan situation, noting that any alternative actions would need to be taken once an issue arises. 

When asked about the possibility of any upcoming food shortages, he noted that there was no likelihood of any rice shortages, although there could be concerns in relation to onions, adding that the Government had commenced a discussion on the matter.